“You are what your record says you are.” In the modern NFL, where there are so many stats to evaluate a team's performance and expected performance, the old saying from former New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Parcells still reigns supreme.
Despite coming into the season on opposite sides of the expectation spectrum, the Patriots and San Francisco 49ers enter their Week 4 contest with identical 1-2 records.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 29
Start Time: 1:05 PST
Location: Santa Clara, California
Stadium: Levi's Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Joe Davis and Greg Olsen on the Call)
49ers Uniform Info: Red Tops, Gold Pants (1-1 record)
Patriots Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 13.0 (31st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.0 (11th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 246.3 Yards (32nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 102 Yards Per (32nd) and 144.3 Yards Per (8th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 327.3 Yards (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 244.3 Yards Per (27th) and 83 Yards Per (5th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 33.3% (24th) and 51.2% (29th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 33.3% (28th) and 55.6% (16th)
Penalties: 13 (31th)
Penalty Yardage: 152 Yards (18th)
New England Patriots
Defense: With the departure of legendary Head Coach Bill Belichick and star linebacker Matt Judon, the Patriots' defense has taken an expected step back. Their defense will also be without last season’s sack leader in defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who is out indefinitely.
Last season, New England’s defense ranked 8th in EPA/play at -0.059. A step back from last year was evident with all of the losses on defense. Through three games this year, its defense ranks 27th at 0.072. Despite the step back, there are still players on defense the 49ers and Brock Purdy will need to monitor.
With Judon in Atlanta and Barmore diagnosed with blood clots, the Patriots needed someone to make an impact in the pass rush through three games. That person was second-year defensive end Keion White.
White only had one sack in 16 games last season but already has four this year. If White is matched up with Colton McKivitz, arguably the 49ers' worst starter on either side of the ball, it could cause problems for Purdy. Although the Patriots don’t have an interception, they still have some solid secondary players: Cornerback Christian Gonzalez and safety Jabrill Peppers. It will be interesting to see if Gonzalez will be tasked with covering either Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk.
Offense
Three weeks ago, I said how Jets quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor ranked in the top three in the lowest active career interception percentage. The other quarterback in the top three? Patriots starter Jacoby Brissett.
Keeping the ball out of harm's way is the only thing Brissett does well. Through three weeks, he only has one touchdown pass. Even though he hasn’t had an interception, Brissett hasn’t been very accurate. He ranks fifth in “bad throw percentage” at 23.1%.
Like Brissett, the rest of the Patriots' offense is uninspiring. Outside of tight end Hunter Henry, the passing offense is nearly nonexistent. Jennings' 175-yard game against the Rams last week gave him more yards and touchdowns in that game alone than every Patriots wide receiver on the season… combined.
The lone bright spots for New England have been running backs such as Rhomandre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. While they haven’t lit the world on fire by any means, by being an average tandem, they have stood out on arguably the worst offense in the league. The biggest question is when will they give Drake Maye a shot.
San Francisco 49ers
Defense
Like New England, San Francisco's defense has regressed so far. But unlike their opponents, there are no reasons why the defense should rank 24th with 0.056 EPA/play.
The 49ers fired former defensive coordinator Steve Wilks because his 10th-ranked unit wasn’t good enough. It will undoubtedly take time for Nick Sorenson’s group to play up to their potential, just like it took time for Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans.
Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave will miss the remainder of the season with a partially torn tricep. To make matters worse, his replacement, Jordan Elliott, is questionable because of a foot injury.
With Hargrave out, the remaining starters, Nick Bosa, Leonard Floyd, and Maliek Collins, will face even more pressure to perform. Bosa has been solid, but that’s expected. Collins has been fine, but Floyd has been underwhelming, with only three pressures in three games.
For years, 49ers fans have complained about the pass defense, even when there were bigger problems. This year, complaints are warranted. Charvarius Ward is having a down year after a break-out 2023 season. The biggest issue has been newcomers. When targeted, Cornerback Isaac Yiadom has allowed a 132.6 passer rating, and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell isn’t much better at 125.0.
However, two players have been exceptional and deserve recognition. Fred Warner and Deommodore Lenoir have been the two best players on defense this year. Warner has been targeted seven times, has only allowed 30 yards, and has had one interception for a rating of 28.0.
Lenoir has been targeted 11 times for 50 yards and has a rating of 66.5.
There’s no better game than this one for the 49ers defense to get back on track.
Offense
George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are back, so we won’t see the Jennings show again. As fun as it was watching Jennings do what he did last week, the 49ers desperately needed another reliable option next to him and Brandon Aiyuk.
Purdy had one of the better games of his impressive young career, and with the YAC bros back, he should have another one.
Kyle Shanahan is a better offensive coach than Patriots OC Alex Van Pelt, but one thing he has done better than Shanahan is have a good distribution of carries, as Stevenson and Gibson have a 70/30 split. As much as I love Samuel, he shouldn’t be your second running back after Jordan Mason. There are other ways to get the ball in his hand.
Mason has received 91.7% of the carries from running backs, and with Christian McCaffrey sidelined until at least November, Shanahan needs to take a load off of Mason and Samuel. Shanahan famously opposes giving rookies big opportunities, but would it kill him to have a 75/25 split between Mason and rookie Isaac Guerendo?
Points Spread: SF -10.5 (-110) | NE +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SF (-600) | NE (+440)
Over/Under: O 40.5 (-110) | U 40.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, September 26
The 49ers' performance in the last two games should not give anyone confidence in betting on them. Please give me the Patriots covering.
Prediction
If I had said not to take the 49ers, you would assume I would have the 49ers winning by less than 10. I do not. My brain says the 49ers will make this game much closer than it should be, but my heart says this is the week the 49ers return to form.
Final score: 49ers 34, Patriots 13
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