Well, we've finally made it. To what, you might be wondering? It's the final Patriots game before their bye week. They'll have just four outings left (two against Buffalo) on the way out, and their opponent this weekend, the Indianapolis Colts, share the unfortunate last available bye week slotting. Their season has been eventful, to say the least. How they've handled Anthony Richardson in year two has been a national headline for the wrong reasons, and their inability to be even a middle-of-the-road defense has led to a stretch, losing four of their last five; their only win coming against the Jets in East Rutherford by a singular point.
Given that the Patriots' final three opponents after this weekend are the Bills (twice) and the playoff-hungry Cardinals and Chargers, we're likely looking at the final realistic chance for the Patriots to put one in the win column, pending Buffalo pulling starters in Week 18 of course. After how badly this defense, and to a lesser extent the entire team, has executed these last two weeks against the Rams and Dolphins, they could certainly use some good vibes going into a week off. So, here's where I think the Patriots can get after the Colts and vice versa.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 1
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes and Adam Archuleta on the call)
Patriots Uniform Info: Pat Patriot Throwbacks
Colts Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 20.2 (21st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.8 (16th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 316.3 Yards (22nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 199.7 Yards Per (24th) and 116.7 Yards Per (17th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 375.8 Yards (28th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 233.3 Yards Per (27th) and 142.6 Yards Per (27th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 36% (23rd) and 37.1% (28th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 44.6% (24th) and 59.1% (18th)
Penalties: 70 (t-17th)
Penalty Yardage: 502 Yards (26th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Colts: Josh Downs (WR), Ashton Dulin (WR), Tanor Bortolini (IOL)
Patriots: Cole Strange
Indianapolis Colts
Defense
Outside of Kenny Moore, one of the best slot defenders in the league, this Colts' secondary lacks a true impact player, which has allowed many quarterbacks to have good days against them. Gus Bradley's unit has come under even internal scrutiny when Moore publically called out his teammates for lack of effort and work ethic, saying, "Year to year, it's the same thing." Things ultimately haven't gotten much better, and they're ultimately a Cover 3 heavy unit with no signs that they'll move too far off the reservation from a coverage standpoint.
As for some key names beyond the likes of DeForrest Buckner and Grover Stewart to keep tabs on, this is a defense that more or less runs through linebacker Zaire Franklin, quietly one of the NFL's best in the middle third. He can fly to the football, has good coverage chops, no defender has more tackles than him dating back to 2022, and he's played 100% of the Colts defensive snaps this year. I'd be shocked if he doesn't end up making a Pro Bowl for the first time this year.
The other name to watch out for is rookie pass rusher Laiatu Latu, who's started to put everything together in this last month or so. Outside of a seven-pressure, one-sack outing vs. Chicago in Week 3, he started very slow out of the gates but has three sacks in his last six games, along with 24 pressures and three games with a > 20% pressure rate. His burst and motor were elite the second he was drafted, and he's coming off a strong outing against Penei Sewell and the Lions. That's not exactly what you're trying to hear as Patriots fans, knowing he'll likely see time on Demontrey Jacobs.
Offense
The injury bug for the Colts will leave them quite shorthanded offensively this weekend. Wideout Josh Downs, who's perhaps the most crucial part of that offense (also Drake Maye's go-to guy at UNC in 2022), and potentially deep threat Alec Pierce are trending to both be out on Sunday, although the latter practiced on the last day of the week. It is not ideal for a team ranking in the bottom half in passing yards per game and who will likely be down some big boys up front as well. The guy who'll benefit the most from this is Gaffney Scouting Legend, Adonai Mitchell. The Texas product hasn't factored much into their passing attack this year. Still, he'll undoubtedly get his looks this week, even if Mitchell lines up primarily on Christian Gonzalez. They need someone to step up and carry the load with less than 100% Michael Pittman Jr.
2024 has been a mixed bag for former MVP contender Jonathan Taylor. He's over the 700-yard mark with four 100-plus yard outings, but he also has three games failing to hit 50 yards and three games failing to hit 3.5 yards a carry. He's struggled, especially as of late, and also was boxed up the last time he played New England over in Germany last season. I imagine we see a healthy dosage of No. 28 on Sunday regardless, but stopping him should be priority. To put this into perspective, teams have only stacked the box against Taylor at just under half the rate teams have with Derrick Henry, and with those WR injuries, the game plan feels simple for New England.
Now, let's talk about Tony Rich. Obviously, he was benched some weeks ago after tapping out against the Texans, but as someone who was a massive fan of his coming out of Florida, the biggest thing he needed was reps, having only limited starting experience in the SEC. So, for the Colts to stunt Richardson's growth in what's essentially an extension of his rookie year, it was malpractice, regardless of how you feel about the Texans game. He should be on the Josh Allen plan of just letting him roll with the punches and figure things out in live-game situations. It's worth noting that Allen is an aberration and not the norm when it comes to later-on accuracy improvement as an NFL QB, but if Allen could suddenly turn things around, Richardson can as well.
As for this weekend, the Patriots haven't faced a guy like Richardson in a long while. He loves the deep ball more than any other QB in the league (by a healthy margin), and his ability as a runner will tax the second level of this Patriots' defense all day. He's the kind of player the Patriots need a dedicated spy on at all times, and with some holes up front, hopefully, you can force him into some errant throws.
New England Patriots
Defense
The elephant in the room this week is, of course, Jabrill Peppers. He was officially taken off the commissioner's exempt list this week, but his legal proceedings aren't set to be resolved until early next year, and by the sounds of it, he will be playing in 2024, if not this week, down this final four-game stretch. Based on the fact Peppers met with Robert Kraft on his first day back, I hope this team knows far more than we do. It's more than fair to be skeptical about his return without any true closure in this situation, but if they know something we don't, fair enough, they just better be right about it. It'd be a gigantic black eye for an organization that prides itself on heavy discipline for such situations.
Even with some wideouts hurt for the Colts, cornerback play beyond Christian Gonzalez has hit Defcon 1 level of concern the last two weeks, and I need to see guys like Marcus Jones and Jonathan Jones step it up in a big way. Even more so than them, though, is that Kyle Dugger is coming off his worst game as a pro, and no, I don't think that's hyperbole. The injured ankle isn't helping matters, but he was responsible for another coverage bust TD on the Achane score last Sunday and made many poor decisions in the run game. Not only would I not be shocked if he's inactive this Sunday, but if the Patriots were to shut him down for the season, I wouldn't be surprised.
In any case, Gonzalez vs. Mitchell on the boundary will be a fun matchup, and I'm looking forward to seeing how the Patriots institute the Longhorn package against a guy like Anthony Richardson and attack Jonathan Taylor.
Offense
We finally reached a breaking point with this offensive line, as Michael Jordan was released after the loss in Miami, ensuring that Layden Robinson would stick in at left guard. There are no other changes at this time, with Cole Strange being ruled out yesterday. To be honest, I think putting Jacobs out on an island against a guy like Laiatu Latu a week after Chop Robinson repeatedly dusted him is a disaster waiting to happen. I get the Patriots are thin at tackle, but there's no shot; having him start gives them the best chance to win games. I'd much rather give Sidy Sow some playing time or when he's available again, Caedan Wallace.
One big reason this week should be good for Drake Maye is that he's only weeks removed from shredding a heavy Cover-3 unit in the Chicago Bears and looked really good against those looks when the Rams ran them (Miami, not so much). Especially with Indy not having the horses at cornerback, guys like Pop Douglas and Kendrick Bourne should have some opportunities to get open, as should both of the tight ends. As of this week, the Colts have allowed the ninth most yards in the NFL to the big boys at 664. Here's to hoping Alex Van Pelt has been saving some C3 beaters for this week.
Betting Info
Points Spread: IND -2.5 (-120) | NE +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: IND (-142) | NE (+120)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-110) | U 42.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, November 29
It's not a massive surprise that Indy is favored in this one after last weekend, but the Josh Downs inactive factor feels big. Even so, and this may be hard to believe, the Colts are one of the five best ATS teams in the NFL this season at 8-4-0, 4-2-0 on the road. It's not a game I'd want to bet on either way, but I'd go with the trends here (and the over, barely, if anything). It's hard to trust the Patriots with money at this point.
Prediction
This is one that I can see going either way, but the Colts have just two road wins this year by a combined four points. I think this one goes down the wire, much like the Rams and Seahawks games, but I'll ride with the home team here. Indy not having a sure thing in Josh Downs for this game is massive, and if Jonathan Taylor can't get anything going, it's going to take some more coverage busts by New England to keep them in this, and sadly, the Patriots may oblige. Give me Maye and co. by a fraction, if nothing else.
Final Score: New England Patriots 23, Indianapolis Colts 21
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