Photo via Gaslamp Ball
I am not here to claim that I have some otherworldly knowledge of what works in the postseason.
The baseball playoffs are a mystery of small sample sizes that no one can figure out, and I don't know that anyone ever will. Those 90s Yankees teams are seemingly a thing of the past, with expanded playoffs and front offices all using (mostly) the same cutting-edge technologies and ways of looking at things.
With all of that being said, the San Diego Padres have a wonderful ball club that just might do some fun things come October.
Let's start with their bullpen. Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Yuki Matsui are all wonderful relievers with sub-4 ERAs, with a few being under 3. Their FIPs are equally fine, and all except Suarez have 70+ K-rates, with Scott, Estrada, and Adam being in the 80s and 90s.
That's some filthy stuff, and stuff plays in every baseball game, particularly in the amped-up postseason with adrenaline-fueled hitters swinging for the fences and aggressive managers willing to deploy their bullpens in increasingly unorthodox manners.
Then we move to the starting rotation, headlined by aces Dylan Cease and Joe Musgrove, both of whom grade out well in whiff % for their careers and feature nasty sliders that do the bulk of the heavy lifting.
Add a vet in Yu Darvish, who could make a play for the 3rd rotation spot after missing a portion of 2024, and you've got a formidable 1-2-3 combination to start any series.
Now, we shift our focus to the lineup, with their defense and their unique approaches at the plate.
As seen this past Wednesday with their dramatic walk-off triple play against the Dodgers, the Padres sport a good-if-not-great defense, posting a 1 OAA mark for the year (about as average as it gets).
But what their lineup does better than any team in baseball, and better than any team since those 2015 Royals, is make contact. "Put the ball in play, and good things happen" is a refrain heard by many who played Little League growing up, and that's never been more true than now for the Padres.
Plus, they're maintaining that high contact rate while not sacrificing their approach, as they rank in the top half of the league in chase rate. They also sit in the same area for exit velocity and are 3rd in xWOBA.
So, all of that is to say that the Padres are one of the best teams to bet on in these playoffs, regardless of whether they make the miraculous comeback to win the NL West or if they get in through the Wild Card.
Of course, now they'll go out and get swept unceremoniously because that's baseball. Oh, well.
Comments