Star 49ers' Wideout Brandon Aiyuk's future status has been up in the air for months now, and news of his official trade request hitting John Lynch's desk yesterday shouldn't have been much of a surprise. He rightfully wants top-of-the-line money with his rookie deal expiring at the end of this upcoming season, while you can't entirely blame the '9ers for playing hardball, given that they're going to be in a big-time cap crunch in short order and have some other key guys to pay
While there's no guarantee that San Francisco will opt to move Aiyuk since they hold all the cards per se, guys like him do not become available often. He's one of the best outright route runners in the game today, is a big play machine, can play through contact, and, like in all prior stated categories, is elite after the catch. I had my suspicions that the Patriots were in on Aiyuk around Draft season. Still, we now know after yesterday, they were for sure in on him as of very recently, according to one Josina Anderson.
We've seen the new formula teams have used to kickstart things with a QB on a rookie deal for some time now: If there's elite offensive talent available, take the gamble and go for it. The Eagles did it with A.J. Brown, the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill, the Bears with D.J. Moore, the Texans now with Stefon Diggs (then there was the Bears failing, both predictably and spectacularly, with Chase Claypool, but that's neither here nor there), etc. In no uncertain terms, it's been reported that the Patriots are interested, as they should be. Now, what would it cost to pry him away from San Francisco?
WR Going Rate
When you look at the bulk of the more recent wide receiver trades, they've come either during or before the NFL draft, which makes dialing up a good package for Aiyuk at this time of year a bit dicey. In fact, the only notable WR trade post-draft at this caliber would have been Amari Cooper to the Cowboys in 2018, eight days before that year's deadline, for the price of a first-round pick. Also worth noting is that Cooper was still in the fourth year of his deal (with the fifth-year option year remaining) and was two years younger when Oakland dealt him to Dallas.
The thing is, with the bar for receiver trades increasing in the ensuing six years, John Lynch would be well within his rights to demand a bit more for Aiyuk. Nowadays, you're looking at a 1st-Rounder plus, just as a basis for a deal. But again, given where we're at in the year compared to some other notable receiver trades, that notably changes the dynamic. Would some teams, more than likely those with QBs on rookie deals, be willing to part with a future first-rounder before the season even starts?
Who Would the Patriots Realistically be Competing With in Trade Talks?
Looking at the NFL landscape as of mid-July, I see the following four teams outside of the New England Patriots as likely suitors or simply teams that shouldn't be afraid of taking a dice roll: the Washington Commanders, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills, and the Los Angeles Chargers. Looking at the bulk of the betting markets with odds up, the favorites would be none other than the Steelers (if he is dealt).
That information isn't super hard to digest when you remember this. Compared to New England and Washington, they have a better outright roster as is already, and they don't have to (in theory) worry about dumping a first for next year when it could turn into a top-10 pick, potentially a top-five pick. You can add the Bills into that same mix, but I'd rank them either fourth or fifth of these teams, given what they invested into the position in the offseason.
The point is, If San Francisco is dead set on getting a first-rounder back, that's a MASSIVE gamble if you're the Commanders or Patriots. Even if Aiyuk is a notable year-one contributor in either spot, would Aiyuk, who we've established is a legit game-changing playmaker, be enough of an add to offset potentially losing a premium first-round pick? It would be notably easier for Pittsburgh to dump a first for Aiyuk, given where they are at.
What I'd Offer for the Patriots to Acquire Brandon Aiyuk
Given that a 2025 first-rounder is likely out of the question unless Eliot Wolf believes in this roster that much, the Patriots will almost certainly need to get creative. You could use the four most comparable WR trades in the last five years as a baseline for an Aiyuk package (Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, Tyreek Hill to Miami, A.J. Brown to Philly, and DeVante Adams to Las Vegas) netted their former teams an average return haul of 327.5 draft pick value points per the Rich Hill Model. In simpler terms, that is about the value of the 14th overall pick. It's also worth noting that Brown was the only player in this group to be on their rookie deal and get dealt; that deal got Tennessee a first and third-rounder, which was good for 310 value points.
So, with all that information out of the way, here's what my offer would be: San Francisco would be getting a 2025 second and fourth-round pick, plus a 2026 conditional second-rounder, which would become a first based on hitting a snap count mark and signing an extension (think in the vein of the Aaron Rodgers or Calvin Ridley trades), in addition to a fifth-rounder. Based on the 2024 draft order, that'd be worth 392 points on the high, 30-plus points more than what Vegas gave up for Adams, and 292 on the low end, a bit more than what Buffalo gave up for Diggs, and to be honest, a ton of would have to go wrong for that to not turn into a first-rounder.
Do I believe this is a good enough offer? Absolutely. Do I also think that offer is beatable? Yes. San Francisco may not want to wait until '26 for an extra first, and while a team like Pittsburgh may not want to give up that much value, I could see an offer of a 2025 first, third, and fifth being enough from Steelers GM Omar Khan. Never mind that Commanders GM Adam Peters is a through-and-through San Fran guy, so John Lynch could opt to do business with someone in his circle, even if that means trading him inside the NFC.
Regardless, Eliot Wolf's commitment to trying to add to this receiver room should not go unnoticed. Calvin Ridley ultimately wanted to go to Tennessee, but you can't blame Wolf for not giving him a competitive offer. Nor can you for being unable to find a trade partner to get back into the first round for a wideout in this year's draft. You're going to miss some times, and that's fine, but especially in this case, being in on a guy like Aiyuk is massive, and it cannot be understated how much he would add to this offense the second he'd get into the building. Instantly your top X option and someone whose sheer presence would open things up for guys down the proverbial batting order, he's that kind of talent; legit top-five upside.
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