Photo via MASN
The Baltimore Orioles are on the verge of making the playoffs for consecutive years after a long, difficult road of extreme tanking spurred by a former Astros front office familiar with reaping the rewards of such an extreme amount of losing.
One of the few players who has stuck around through all of the horrid play has been switch-hitting corner outfielder Anthony Santander, and the slugger is entering free agency this offseason. Santander has had quite a walk year, hammering 41 home runs this season and sporting a 133 wRC+, both career highs.
He's done so through his usual hard-hitting, low-contact approach, with no significant changes in his quality of contact numbers (which have always been good but not great) or his plate discipline metrics (which have always been poor). So could this be a new norm for him, or just a right place, right time peak for an at-best above-average hitter?
The underlying metrics say it's likely just a fun little peak, and that regression to his true talent level (if not worse) is more likely, especially as he enters the wrong portion of the aging curve.
However, with another free agency class lacking high-end talent on both sides of the ball, Santander ranks as one of the more attractive options, hovering around the Willy Adames class of free agents with a significant gap between them and superstar Juan Soto.
Given his production, age, and the market, what should Santander expect in his free agency?
He's had a solid if not great past few seasons, averaging 2.7 WAR over the last 3 years. He turns 30 in October, and his profile doesn't lend itself to aging super gracefully, with becoming a full-time DH or transitioning to 1B (a position he's played 72 innings in the majors) being a very real possibility as he enters his mid-30s.
While his hitting numbers have always been good, being around 20% better than league average through a slug-heavy production profile, his defense has been meh at a very undemanding position in terms of fielding skill.
He hovers around -2 OAA every season in right, playing there around 700 innings a year.
So who does his free agency profile most remind me of?
Jorge Soler.
I know Soler's a DH, his performance has been a bit less consistent and his highs are less high than Santander's, Santander has mostly done it with one team while Soler bounced around quite a bit, but they both rely heavily on the long ball and are entering free agency around the same time age-wise.
Soler received a 3-year, $42 million deal, and Santander should expect something relatively similar. A low-year deal, possibly 4-5 years instead of just 3, and a bit higher in AAV, $15-$20 million instead of $14 million.
Santander's value according to Fangraphs has been about $20 million per year for the past 3 seasons, but a spike closer to $30 million this season might cause a slugger-needy team to bank on that performance being sustainable.
Do the Kansas City Royals decide to try to bolster their lineup given their surprisingly fun 2024 season? Or does Baltimore decide to bring back a fan-favorite, giving their young team a veteran presence in the clubhouse and creating a bit of stability for their team?
All interesting questions and Santander is another fascinating storyline to monitor in an offseason filled with question marks with both free agency and potential trades involving rebuilding teams.
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