The day Dolphins fans have been waiting for is almost here. After officially clearing concussion protocol, Tua Tagovailoa will start on Sunday. The team went 1-3 during his IR stint and struggled mightily on offense. Tua is far from the perfect quarterback, but this four-game stretch without him will undoubtedly have Dolphins fans appreciating him more. He returns to a great matchup at home vs the Cardinals, who have had their share of defensive struggles this season.
The Cardinals are coming off a walk-off field goal victory against the Chargers and are currently third in a jam-packed NFC West. Having a healthy Kyler Murray has changed their fortunes compared to last season, but this team still has a long way to go. They're yet to win back-to-back games this season and have been on the receiving end of a few blowouts. Can Kyler and Co spoil Tua's return, or will Miami get back to winning ways?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 27th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Jason Benetti, Mark Schlereth on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
Arizona Cardinals 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 21.4 (19th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.4 (25th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 331.3 (14th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 181 Yards Per Game (25th) and 150.3 Yards Per Game (6th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 376.4 (27th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 236.9 Yards Per Game (26th) and 139.6 Yards Per Game (27th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 39.44% (16th) and 48.15% (32nd)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 57.89% (13th) and 51.85% (11th)
Penalties: 35 (30th)
Penalty Yardage: 315 Yards (25th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: CB Kader Kohou, DL Zach Sieler, QB Tyler Huntley (IR)
Cardinals: LB Dennis Gardeck (IR), DL Roy Lopez, DL Darius Robinson, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting
Arizona Cardinals
Defense
When discussing the Cardinals' defense, one man immediately comes to mind: safety Budda Baker. Baker has been one of the best safeties in all of football over the past couple of seasons, especially against the run. He may not be at the peak he reached a few years ago, but he's still a leader in this defense. Baker's 67 tackles are good enough for second-best in the NFL among defensive backs.
The Cardinals struggle against the run, and the Dolphins have been running the ball very recently. They will run it less with Tua back, but it will be an area to exploit regardless. The Cardinals know they'll give up yards either way, so their plan should be to blitz Tua at a high rate and get after the Dolphins' offensive line.
Tua has been practicing, but there's a good chance he'll be rusty. Even when healthy, he's not the best under pressure. The Cardinals rank 21st in sacks, so their pass rush could be better, but they'll have to get after it this game.
Offense
The Cardinals' offense has been conflicting. It hasn't been bad per se, but a few players haven't performed up to expectations. The big elephant in the room is 4th overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr., who has struggled despite being touted as one of the best receiver prospects ever. Harrison Jr. only has one game with more than 64 yards and hasn't had more than five receptions in any game.
I'm sure these are mainly just growing pains, but the reality is that he has not lived up to the hype thus far. Truthfully, the pass offense has struggled as a whole this season. Kyler Murray is averaging just 190.1 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than one passing touchdown in a game just once. The other major receiving threat in this offense is tight end Trey McBride, who still seems to be Murray's favorite and most trustworthy target.
The flip side is that their rushing attack has been excellent. Murray showed what he can do with his legs against the Chargers, using his blistering speed to get to the edge and take it 44 yards to the end zone. James Conner has been a workhorse running back when he's been healthy, having totaled at least 16 carries in five of six healthy games this season. The Cardinals will still make it a point to get Harrison more touches, but their more significant threat comes on the ground game, especially the designed runs for Murray.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
You've got to feel sorry for the Dolphins defense. They've given up the fourth fewest yards per game, are first in third-down conversion defense, and haven't given up more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 3. Yet the Dolphins only have two wins, and one of them was in Week 1. The defense has primarily done its job this season, but the offense hasn't been able to help them.
They'll have their hands full this week going up against Murray, who, despite having average numbers, is a big play waiting to happen. The Dolphins defense gives up the fewest passing yards per game this season to opposing quarterbacks. Couple that with Arizona's general struggles to pass to the ball, and I'd imagine the bigger focus will be to stop the run. James Conner is a gutsy runner between the tackles, and it'll be up to Jordyn Brooks to stop him.
Zach Sieler's absence for this game is a massive loss on the defensive line, both for the pass rush and stopping the run. Sieler broke his orbital bone in practice and may require surgery. Mike McDaniel has not given a timetable for his return.
Offense
It's already been mentioned, but Tua's return cannot be understated. Without him, the Dolphins' offense has been the worst in the league. Tyler Huntley was able to sneak in a win against the Pats and looked decent in moments, but for the most part, it wasn't pretty.
The receivers will be thrilled to have Tua back. Tyreek Hill, especially, hasn't hidden his excitement both on social media and in interviews. Hill is listed as questionable for the game after not practicing on Friday due to a foot injury, but Mike McDaniel is optimistic he'll be able to suit up. It would be a great matchup for Hill against a Cardinals defense that allows the second most yards per play in the NFL.
The offensive line had a good game against Indy. Terron Armstead and Aaron Brewer earned PFF grades above 80, and the team rushed for 188 yards. They'll look to build off that against a middling Cardinals defensive line. De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert should be able to get more touches in the passing game, both out of the backfield and out wide. After leading the league in touchdowns last season, Mostert has yet to score this season, albeit he missed time with an injury. I think Achane and Mostert have a big day here.
Betting Info
Points Spread: ARI +4.5 (-115) | MIA -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: ARI (+164) | MIA (-196)
Over/Under: O 46.5 (-110) | U 46.5 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, October 25th
This line opened at -3 and has slowly moved to -4.5, but I'm still taking the Dolphins. The bump from -4 to -4.5 is big for betting purposes, but I think there will be at least a touchdown between the teams. The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS this season but were 6-2 ATS as home favorites last season.
Prediction
This should be an exciting game. Both teams have multiple playmakers, and the tempo should be fast. As big a win as this would be for Arizona, it's a must-win for the Dolphins, both for their record and for the locker room and team morale. They'll get it done at home.
Final Score: Dolphins 27, Cardinals 17
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