The Buccaneers are back in prime time this Monday as they face off against the feared Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore is the hottest team in the league right now, winning four straight games after a rough start, losing their first two. The recent success of the Ravens is due to the play of reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. He's continuing his elite level of play this season and has even more help in the backfield with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry is terrorizing offenses, and the Buccaneers will have their hands full of him. The Buccaneers are also hot on offense and just put up over fifty points last week in New Orleans. This game can potentially be a shootout and will be the more anticipated game to watch on Monday night.
Both teams are sitting at 4-2 and have playoff dreams in their future. This may even be a sleeper matchup for the Super Bowl this year. This game will also feature three rare Heisman trophy winners. Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, and Baker Mayfield won the Heisman trophy. Even crazier is that they each followed each other with their wins. Henry won in '15, Jackson in '16, and Mayfield in '17. They've all had exciting careers thus far and have all had NFL success. All eyes will be on them as they continue their legendary football careers on Monday night.
Game Info
Date: Monday, October 21st
Start Time: 8:15 P.M Eastern
Location: Tampa, Florida
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
TV Info: Fox (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the Call)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Uniform Info: Red Jersey, White Pants
Baltimore Ravens Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 29.5 (4th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.8 (23rd)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 453.7 Yards Per (1st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 248.3 Yards Per (8th) and 205.3 Yards Per (1st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 324.7 Yards Per (16th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 275.7 Yards Per (31st) and 59 Yards Per (1st)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 51.47% (1st) and 41.10% (21st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 75% (1st) and 66.67% (25th)
Penalties: 47 (26th)
Penalty Yardage: 411 Yards (28th)
Players Ruled Out Before Monday
Ravens: Arthur Maulet, Keaton Mitchell, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Deion Jennings, Christian Matthew, Trayvon Mullen, Owen Wright, Malik Hamm.
Buccaneers: Earnest Brown IV, Cody Thompson, Markees Watts, SirVocea Dennis, Evan Deckers, Bryce Hall, Rakim Jarrett, Silas Dzansi, Sua Opeta, Chase Edmunds.
Baltimore Ravens
Defense
The Ravens' defense was dominant last year, but they've struggled with losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. Macdonald was the defensive mastermind for the Ravens last season but was hired to be the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks this offseason. Despite this loss, the Ravens have been excellent at stopping the run, only allowing fifty-nine yards per game. The passing game is a different story, as they're second to last in passing yards allowed per game. During the year, the Ravens have allowed an average of 275.7 passing yards per game, only one yard less than the last-place Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens particularly struggled a couple of weeks ago against the Bengals when Joe Burrow threw for nearly 400 yards and five touchdowns on 77% completion percentage. Then, in week three, the Ravens allowed almost 400 yards of passing in their matchup against the Cowboys. If the Ravens continue to be unable to stop the passing attack, they could be in trouble Monday night, as the Bucs are in the top ten in passing yards per game.
The bright side of this Ravens defense is that it still features high-level Pro Bowl talent. They have one of the best linebackers in the NFL, Roquan Smith. Smith is coming off two back-to-back first-team All-Pro selections and is leading the Ravens in tackles with fifty-six. He is the heartbeat of the Raven's defense and is all over the field. This defense also features star safety Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton was also a first-team All-Pro last year and is second in tackles for Baltimore. Hamilton stands at a tall 6'4, and quarterbacks must always look out for him before throwing the ball. The Ravens feature one sleeper star this season as veteran linebacker Kyle Van Noy has had a fantastic year. Van Noy is fourth in the NFL in sacks with six and was named AFC Defensive Player of the Month. He and edge rusher Odafe Oweh are guys the Bucs need to watch out for when protecting Mayfield.
Offense
The Baltimore Ravens offense is statistically the best in the entire NFL. They are averaging a staggering 453.7 yards per game. The leader of this dominant Ravens is none other than Lamar Jackson. Jackson was mediocre in the first two games of the season, which resulted in the Ravens being 0-2 going into week three. In those two games, Jackson only had two total touchdowns. Thankfully for Baltimore, Jackson woke up and has returned to MVP form. Over the past four games, Jackson has had ten total touchdowns and only one interception. Jackson is also averaging 67.2 rushing yards per game. His best performance this year came against the Bengals in week five. Lamar threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He also added fifty-five yards on the ground and beat the Bengals in overtime.
The Raven's offense has been so dominant this year that they're averaging forty-four yards more yards per game than the team with the second most yards per game. Big thanks go to the dominant rushing attack. The Ravens are averaging an absurd 205.3 rushing yards per game, by far the most in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers, who are second, average 167 yards per game, almost forty yards less. The rushing attack dominance has much to do with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry has been tormenting defenses this season, averaging 117.3 rushing yards per game. Henry also has nine touchdowns on the season and is playing like his 2020 self. His best game this year came against Buffalo in week four. Henry went ballistic against the Bills, running for 199 yards and two total touchdowns. His touchdown run was an 87-yarder that came on the first offensive play of the game for the Ravens. So far this season, Henry has three games with over 130 rushing yards and scored at least one rushing touchdown in every game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
Statistically, the Bucs have been mediocre to below average on defense this season. A lot of this is due to injuries, but even when everyone is healthy, they still struggle to stop opposing offenses from moving the ball. Thankfully for the defense, the Buccaneers offense puts up a lot of points, giving the defense lots of margin for error. This season, the Buccaneers defense is 26th in yards allowed per game and 19th in points allowed per game. These are two rankings you don't want to have before playing the number one offense in the NFL. Fortunately, the Tampa Bay running defense is strong, and that's the Raven's primary way of moving the ball. Though the Bucs are in the league's top half in rushing yards allowed per game, they still need to play better than that on Monday night. The Ravens are averaging over 200 rushing yards a game, and if they let Derrick Henry tear them up early, it will be a long night in Tampa.
The primary concern for Tampa is that they can't stop the pass in the last two games. Even last week, after facing a rookie QB in Spencer Rattler, they still allowed 243 passing yards. That may not seem like a lot, but it is for Spencer Rattler. Rattler played on Thursday and was so poor that he had to be benched for Jake Haener. Then, two weeks ago, when the Buccaneers played the Falcons, they allowed over 500 passing yards when Kirk Cousins went off for a franchise high in passing yards in a game. Lamar may not seem like an elite passer to some, but he is. If the Buccaneer's defense continues with these performances, don't be surprised if Jackson puts up a 300-plus-yard day.
Another big thing that the defense has to account for is that Lamar is a deadly rusher. The Bucs haven't faced a dynamic dual-threat QB since week one of the season against the Commanders. Tampa won that game but allowed Jayden Daniels to run for two touchdowns and eighty-eight rushing yards. Jackson could easily replicate those stats if given the chance. It'll be all hands on deck for the Buccaneer's defense as they try to hold on at home against the red-hot Ravens.
Offense
The Buccaneers are coming off a substantial fifty-one-point performance last week in New Orleans. That game has moved the team to number two in the NFL in points per game. A big part of that win was the Bucs' dominance in the rushing game, which was a fantastic surprise for them as the Bucs have struggled in the run game the last two years. Against the Saints, they ran for 277 yards and had a breakout performance from Sean Tucker. In the absence of Rachaad White, Tucker ran for 136 yards and a touchdown. White will likely be back this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if they let him rest for another week due to Sean Tucker's and Bucky Irving's success. Though the Bucs had a colossal day rushing last week, they won't likely repeat it this week. The Ravens are the best in the league at defending the run, only allowing fifty-nine yards per game. If the Bucs can repeat even a third of their success against the Saints, that will put them in good shape against this stout Ravens team.
The passing attack for Tampa continues to be high-volume and explosive as they lead the league in passing touchdowns. Baker Mayfield tossed four touchdowns last week and 325 yards. On the other end, Mayfield threw three interceptions, and most of his passing yards came from receivers running after the catch. He'll have to be better against the Ravens, as three turnovers are unacceptable against an offense as deadly as Baltimore. If the Buccaneers turn it over early, the Ravens may put them at an unrecoverable deficit. Baker has owned up to these turnovers and praised the players who helped him on offense last week. One of those players was veteran Chris Godwin, who had a monster game and an outstanding season so far. Against New Orleans, he had eleven receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin had forty-three receptions for 511 yards and five touchdowns in the year. He's currently third in the league in receiving yards, first in receptions, and tied first with fellow teammate Mike Evans in receiving touchdowns. With Baltimore struggling to stop the pass, see the Bucs take advantage of that and have Chris Godwin have a big day.
Betting Info
Points Spread: TB +3.5 (-110) | BAL -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TB (+160) | BAL (-192)
Over/Under: O 50 (-112) | U 501 (-108)
Lines Via DraftKings as of Monday, October 21st
It's a close game, but I would pick the Ravens to cover the spread. The Ravens are just too hot right now, and I think they'll take advantage of Tampa Bay's pass coverage holes. The only thing is that 3.5 is an aggressive line and could lean toward the Bucs to have a back door cover if the Ravens win by a field goal. To me, that's a trap, and I think the Ravens will be able to win by at least four points. The Moneyline odds are poor if you're betting on Baltimore but would still pick them to win. However, the spread is a better bet for your money if you're picking Baltimore. The over-under for this game is at a massive fifty points. Both teams have explosive offenses averaging nearly thirty points per game, so I understand the over. Though it may seem aggressive to bet the over, I could see this game turning into a classic shootout between two great offenses, so I would bet the over in this one.
Prediction
This game will be a high-scoring shootout between two high-scoring offenses with struggling pass defenses. The winner of the game will be the one with the better quarterback, and the better quarterback in this game is Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be too much for the Buccaneers to handle, and Baker Mayfield will eventually slip up and commit a turnover that will cost them the game. I expect this to be a close game and the game of the week. Keep your eyes on both teams throughout the season because both will play in late January or February.
Final Score: Baltimore Ravens 38, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
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