Few time-honored traditions in the NFL hold up as well as the Patriots' losing in Miami. Dating back to the tail end of 1989, New England has lost a staggering 24 out of 35 matchups and is 2-8 in South Beach in their last 10 trips. Adding to the misery, they've not once beaten the Dolphins when they've started Tua Tagovailoa, and since he's come back from his latest concussion, he's been playing some exceptional ball, leading to the Dolphins to four straight games, scoring at least 23 points.
Needless to say, this team entered the year with hopes of a better season than what's transpired so far. They have a path to another postseason bid, but they can afford one more loss, two more max, sitting at 3-6. It does not help things in the immediate short-term future if they have some other key guys on the mend, but that didn't stop them from beating the Rams or Raiders in the last two weeks.
As for the Patriots, they appear to be getting another big piece back: Cole Strange. He practiced for the first time on Wednesday, and signs are pointing to him returning at center rather than left guard should he suit up on Sunday. On the other hand, there's a chance the Patriots are without both Jaquelin Roy and Deatrich Wise for the second week in a row, which doesn't bode well for a team that was lifeless rushing the passer against the Rams. So, given the location of this game, what should you be looking for in the absence of hope?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, November 24th
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes and Adam Archuleta on the call)
Patriots Uniform Info: (Assumingly) Blue Tops, Grey Pants
Miami Dolphins Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 18.1 (27th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.1 (t-14th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 319 Yards (22nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 197 Yards Per (23rd) and 122 Yards Per (11th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 308 Yards (9th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 199 Yards Per (10th) and 109 Yards Per (10th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 42.6% (9th) and 35% (10th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 55.2% (20th) and 48.3% (8th)
Penalties: 64 (t-16th)
Penalty Yardage: 550 Yards (t-13th)
Players Ruled Out Before Sunday:
Dolphins: N/A
Patriots: N/A
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The one thing that's hard not to respect about this Fins' defense is how they've been able to apply heat, especially in the absence of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. Rookie Chop Robinson has come on exceptionally strong in the last month. However, Calais Campbell, who is still a Pro Bowl-caliber interior man at 38 years old, is extraordinary. His usage rate has gone down a touch in recent weeks, but that's also led to six pressures and a pair of sacks against the Rams and Raiders. Zach Seiler is another guy who doesn't get a ton of credit along that front and who's in the middle of a solid year, but I'm convinced Campbell has a clean five years left.
Their coverage unit, being one of the best in the league, has undoubtedly played a big part in the surprising success of this pass rush. Still, they've been able to apply pressure quicker than any team in the league outside of the Raiders (avg. time to pressure of 2.49 seconds). They only blitz a little. All of this is to say Anthony Weaver is a legit defensive coordinator in the league today and has done a great job in 2024 after Vic Fangio's unsuccessful stint last season.
While the Dolphins' coverage has been top-notch all year, they may be without Kendall Fuller on the boundary due to a concussion he suffered against the Rams a little under two weeks ago. Looking back at the numbers via NFLPro, Jacoby Brissett didn't throw it at the veteran cornerback once in 34 coverage snaps, the third most he's played all year. Should he clear protocol and suit up, the Patriots should make it a point to try to attack him underneath when he's playing off man or trail. He had a ton of trouble in those spots against Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua before he left that Rams game. Also, Jalen Ramsey? Still as good as advertised.
Offense
I hope that we can all agree on two things about the Dolphins' offense in its current form. 1) Tua Tagovailoa is good. He's done an excellent job keeping the ball out of harm's way and has consistently put the Dolphins in positions to win games since his return. It hasn't led to a perfect record, but you're delusional if you think this offense didn't get revitalized after weeks of Tyler Huntley ball. Now, 2) Bill Belichick was SPITTING when he paid Jonnu Smith 48 million over four years back in 2021. He, however, never accounted for the fact that his most mediocre sycophant, Josh McDaniels, somehow had no clue how to get touches for a guy who's unstoppable in open space. Luckily for those on the right side of history (me), Mike McDaniel isn't a moron and has gotten a great year out of the veteran, and he's likely to end the year either first or second in a bulk of key receiving stats for this team.
2024 has been a stretch of highs and lows for standout running back Devon Achane, and ultimately, the Patriots didn't see a ton of him in the first matchup due to an early concussion, but make no mistake, the entire Patriots defense knows that he level of speed makes him a priority on every down. Only the Rams and Titans have been able to get away with not stacking the box against him because of the star power they have up front, and the Patriots allowed six per carry stacking the box not once back in Week 5. Of course, that doesn't help when you have to defend Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle on the outside, but this is what sets Miami apart from about 90% of the league offensively. Al Davis would've killed for a team like this if he were still alive, especially with the offensive line play to boot.
New England Patriots
Defense
Given that the Patriots face scramble threats from here on out (Tua, Tony Richardson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen x2, and Justin Herbert), I think we get some more of the Longhorn Package that the Patriots broke out vs. Chicago. Obviously, it wouldn't have done the Patriots much vs. Stafford, given that he's...well...not exactly a track star, but if for nothing else, it gets them away from pounding the blitz, which got the Patriots burnt to ashes last weekend. The Rams' offensive line wasn't in great shape, and now they draw a Dolphins team with one of the best pass protection units the NFL has to offer. There's a lot of risk-reward to factor in if you're DeMarcus Covington, considering how good Tua has been vs. the blitz, but he needs to be way smarter about dialing them up. Last week was unacceptable, no matter which way you look at it.
Outside of that, it's hard to take much from the first matchup into this tilt. I believe (and would certainly hope) the Patriots will be smarter with their cornerback matchup usage with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the opposition, and Christian Gonzalez has to be on one or the other at all times. You don't want to be the reason Hill gets confidence back, as he's at risk of going a full three months without a 100-plus yard game if he doesn't get one this week. Jerod Mayo mentioned this being more of a "matchup game" this week regarding the Dolphins wideouts, and here's to hoping that isn't lip service. I don't think I can do last week again.
Offense
Not that there are a ton of things you can/should take from the Raiders offensive in the big 2024, but they absolutely torched the Dolphins last week with rookie Brock Bowers, who might be the best tight end in the league right now (who could've seen it coming; certainly not me). They did a great job of getting him on these short inside hitches and the drags/slants to give him a shot to produce after the catch, and Bowers made the most of it with 78 YAC yards. I think that is a blueprint for Alex Van Pelt, with both of his tight ends on Sunday, and not just Hunter Henry. You saw some similar stuff with Austin Hooper these last two weeks, just not with the level of success Bowers had.
While Cole Strange is practicing with center in mind instead of guard, it doesn't sound like he'll be suiting up on Sunday. He's been strictly working on his conditioning and positional drills in these early stages, but we did get a chance to hear from him this week, where we found out that Strange effectively had to relearn to walk, squat, and jump because of last season's catastrophic knee injury.
My healthy assumption is that the Cardinals game after the bye week is the planned return date, and I'm certainly interested to see if he can adapt to centering this line on the fly.
As for the man he'll eventually be snapping the ball to, the key for Drake Maye this week is decisiveness. This Dolphins team plays good, cohesive football, and I wouldn't be shocked if a bulk of their pressures this week come from good secondary play, forcing plays to go long. For the record, Maye hasn't had many issues making good reads quickly, but things change when you're dealing with a team running Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland in the secondary. Also, please go after Kader Kohou until the cows come home.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NE +7.5 (-115) | MIA -7.5 (-105)
Moneyline: NE (+310) | MIA (-395)
Over/Under: O 46 (-108) | U 46 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, November 21
I could be talked into Patriots ATS here, but otherwise; Fins outright and the under here. Not too complicated this week.
Prediction
Would it be a colossal upset if the Patriots were to win this game? I wouldn't say so. They can keep teams honest, but late-game execution is a big question mark. That said, I will not talk myself into this team winning in Miami. Speaking strictly as a fan now, the viewing experience for the game becomes notably more enjoyable if you're expecting a loss going in, so you can't be disappointed. It's just one of those death, taxes, and [insert here] situations; that and I wouldn't be shocked if Miami makes a legit playoff push from way back in the pack. Even with some key guys likely out in this one, they have the ability to make things happen in this last month of the season.
Final Score: Miami Dolphins 27, New England Patriots 17
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