The Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will meet again in a 2023 NFC Divisional Playoff game rematch. This will be the third time in less than a year that the two teams will play each other, which is very uncommon for teams that aren't in the same division. In the previous two meetings, the Lions convincingly defeated the Bucs. However, the Bucs seemed to have improved since last season, keeping all most of their key players including QB Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans. The Bucs took care of business against the Washington Commanders in week one, defeating them 37-20. However, the Lion's defense will be more challenging for the Buccaneers to battle against. With the Bucs offense flying high in week one, it will be intriguing to see if they can repeat their performance.
The Lions are coming off an overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. Their offense continued to look strong on all fronts, and they have potentially a new star in Jameson Williams. The Lions dominated the Bucs in Tampa in October of 2023, but when they met in the playoffs, the score tightened, and the Lions only won by eight. The Lions will have the advantage of playing at home again, but will they still be beaten up by the overtime win on Sunday night? A few key players have been limited in practice this week, so it's hard to say who will play and who won't. They should hope for as many healthy bodies as possible because they'll need them to defeat this hungry Buccaneers squad.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 15th
Start Time: 1 P.M. Eastern
Location: Detroit, Michigan
TV Info: Fox (Kevin Kugler and Daryl Johnston on the call)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Uniform Info: White Jersey, Grey Pants
Detroit Lions Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 26 (13th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20 (12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 363 Yards (10th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 200 Yards (13th) and 163 Yards (7th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 387 Yards (25th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 304 Yards (31st) and Yards 83 (8th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 46.15% (10th) and 41.67% (20th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50% (12th) and 40% (11th)
Penalties: 6 (10th)
Penalty Yardage: 56 Yards (18th)
Injury Report
Detroit Lions: Marcus Davenport (Questionable), Kerby Joseph (Questionable), Penei Sewell (Questionable), Jameson Williams (Questionable), Ifeatu Melifonwu (Questionable)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Antoine Winfield Jr. (Out), Bryce Hall (Out), Zyon McCollum (Doubtful), Luke Goedeke (Doubtful), Calijah Kancey (Questionable), Josh Hayes (Questionable)
Detroit Lions
Defense
The Detroit Lions defense is not very strong. Last year, they finished 25th in opponent points allowed and 23rd in yards allowed per game. However, they have a solid rush defense, finishing second-best in the league. That's why the Lions have eaten up the Bucs' rushing attack in their last two matchups. In both games, the Lions held the Buccaneers to less than 100 yards rushing, including one game where the Bucs only had 46 yards rushing. The Bucs have improved in their rushing attack this year, but it may not be enough to work on the Lions.
The Lions passing defense was awful last year. The Lions allowed the second most passing yards per game last season, and the only team worse was the Washington Commanders. The Bucs passed the ball very effectively against the Commanders the previous week and can do that again if the Lions continue to play poor coverage. Luckily for Detroit, they have better pass rushers than the Commanders. Aidan Hutchinson is their primary rusher; he had 11.5 sacks last season. The former number-two overall pick has improved every year he's been in the league, and he's already picked up a sack during the Lion's season opener. Hutchinson will also have the advantage of playing against a backup right tackle as starter Luke Goedeke is likely out for this matchup. If Hutchinson can create pressures early and often, the Bucs will be in serious trouble.
Offense
The Lions' offense was statistically the second-best in the league last year, and a lot of the credit goes to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Johnson was a hot name in the head coaching market this offseason but opted to stick with Detroit as he had "Unfinished business," according to wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown. He's revitalized this offense in the two years he's been there. Before Johnson arrived in 2022, the Lions were consistently at the bottom of the league in offense. These last two years have been a complete 180, as the Lions have had a top-five offense two years in a row.
Jared Goff, the Lions quarterback, has also flipped his career. After being traded away to Detroit a few seasons ago, Goff has proven to be the franchise guy. The former number one overall pick was traded away for the more favorable Matthew Stafford and was thought to be a bridge QB for the Lions as they tanked for a rookie QB. Instead, Goff kept his head high and responded by throwing two 4,500-yard seasons for Detroit. The Bucs know all about Goff, as he torched them for 353 yards in October last year. The Bucs held him under 300 yards in the playoff rematch, so we'll see if the third time is the charm for stopping Goff.
Last week, the Lions saw the breakthrough of wide receiver Jameson Williams. Williams was their first-round selection in 2022 but has struggled in his first few seasons. He was coming off an ACL tear in his rookie year and didn't see the field much. In his sophomore year, he was suspended for the first three games because of gambling, but when he did see the field, it was minimal production. However, that all changed against the Rams as Williams opened the season by receiving 121 yards and a touchdown. He showcased the elite speed we saw from him in college and looked like a number-one wide receiver. The Bucs are having injury problems at cornerback, so that he could be in for another big performance this week.
The Lions also have one of the best rushing attacks in the league, with running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery and Gibbs are the perfect thunder-and-lightning duo. Montgomery is the thunder. He trucks over defenders and is unstoppable at the goal line. Last season, he ran for over 1,000 yards and thirteen touchdowns, leading the team in both. This season is no different, as he ran for nearly 100 yards against the Rams and a touchdown. Gibbs was the Lion's first-round selection last year, and he did not disappoint as a rookie. Gibbs ran for 950 yards and ten touchdowns, as well as catching 52 balls for 316 yards. However, the Lions will be in for a challenge this week because the Bucs had a top-five rushing defense last season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
The Buccaneers' defense will test its depth this weekend, as three defensive backs are injured. First-team All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. is out for a few weeks with an ankle injury. This will put rookie Tykee Smith in a challenging position. He'll be the safety blanket for deep down-the-field passes that will most likely be intended for the lightning-fast Jameson Williams. The rookie must be prepared, or else the Lions will feast. Zyon McCollum, who will also be out in this one, is injured. He suffered a concussion in week one and was the Bucs' other corner next to Jamel Dean. Losing McCollum is enormous because the Bucs already didn't have a strong pass defense. Then, to make things worse, cornerback Bryce Hall suffered a season-ending injury that made the cornerback room even thinner. The Bucs will have to move players around, like Christian Izien, to different positions to adjust to the lack of depth.
Thankfully, the Bucs have a good pass rush. Second-year players Yaya Diaby and Calijah Kancey are the real deal and can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Diaby had four pressures last week against the mobile Jayden Daniels. If Diaby can create pressures again this week, he'll likely end those plays with sacks, as Jared Goff is nowhere near as athletic as Daniels. However, the offensive line will be a more significant challenge for the Bucs. Blocking Diaby will be First-Team All-Pro, Penei Sewell. Sewell is an absolute monster and will give Diaby fits in this game. The Lions also have Second-Team All-Pro center Frank Ragnow. He'll be taking on Vita Vea in a battle everyone will be excited to watch play out.
The Bucs have a tough challenge this week on defense, but if they want to be a championship-caliber team, they need to show up in moments like this. If they can battle and find a way to stop this Lions offense, it will do wonders for this defense's momentum and the team's momentum. The Bucs have an outstanding rush defense, but the Lions' rush offense is just as good. The real problem for them will be in the passing game. The backup defensive backs and young defensive linemen must have the games of their lives on Sunday afternoon to secure the win.
Offense
The Bucs offense lit the world on fire last weekend. Specifically, Baker Mayfield went off for a career game, tossing four touchdown passes. He did so against an awful defense, but this performance may be what gives him the confidence to play well in this game. Mayfield struggled mightly in the Bucs and Lions' first matchup in October 2023. He completed only 19 of his 37 passes and threw an interception. However, in the playoffs rematch, Baker was much better. Baker threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. If Mayfield can cut down on the turnovers, the Bucs can hang with the Lions offensively. It's safe to say that if Mayfield hadn't thrown those interceptions, the Bucs might have won that playoff game. The third time might be the charm for Mayfield, and he could be in for another big game to get the MVP conversations going.
The Bucs also showed a significant improvement in the rushing attack last game. Rookie Bucky Irving averaged seven yards a carry against Washington, and I expect him to get more attempts against the Lions. To me, Irving is the superior rusher for the Bucs. However, Rachaad White is still the better receiver. Against the Commanders, White had six catches for 75 yards. He's a mismatch nightmare for linebackers, and the Bucs will continue to utilize him. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers rushing attack, they'll likely be down their starting tackle, Luke Goedeke. That may seriously hinder the success of the rushing game as Goedeke was likely to be blocking the Pro Bowler, Aiden Hutchinson. Overall, the Bucs' offense is excellent, and I expect them to play well against the Lions.
Betting Info
Points Spread: Det -7.5 (-108) | TB +7.5 (-112)
Money line: Det -380 | TB +300
Over/Under: O 51 (-112) | U 51 (-108)
Lines Via Draft Kings, September 12th
The points spread heavily favors the Lions as 7.5-point favorites. The Lions have won by over 7.5 points in the past two matchups, so I understand the spread. The game also is in Detroit, and the fans will undoubtedly be fired up for this one. However, the Bucs have improved in each game they played against the Lions, and I think the third time may be the charm for figuring out this team. That's why I'm picking the Buccaneers to cover the spread in this game: +7.5. I also like the value of choosing the Bucs for the money line. +300 are great odds, and the Bucs have a real shot of pulling off this win. If you combine the spread and money line into one bet and it hits, you could be in for a big payday. I also think the over is a good bet. Both these offenses are high-scoring, and the Lions will undoubtedly do well against a hobbled Bucs defense.
Prediction
Despite my high hopes for the Bucs, I think they got too banged up in week one to win. They can cover the spread, but the lack of corner depth will hurt them. The Lions are also one of the hottest teams in the league and have high postseason hopes. The return of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is also a massive advantage. He will be a head coach soon and is already one of the best offensive minds in the game. Giving him a hobbled opponent at home is too much of a disadvantage for them. I think the Buccaneers keep up with the Lions early on, but eventually, the Lions get a stop on defense and take home the victory.
Final Score: Lions 34 Buccaneers 30
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