The 2024 NFL season ended in a venue very familiar to the Patriots and their pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy, the Superdome, in which the Kansas City Chiefs bid to usurp the Brady-Belichick dynasty by being the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl Era failed spectacularly vs. the Philadelphia Eagles; A game that Patriot fans should've taken away what is needed for this team to return to 2000s-2010s form. That Philly team steamrolled the majority of the league with a steady diet of elite line play, the ability to run the ball with impunity, and took advantage of every opportunity that was in front of them.
In the Mike Vrabel Era, that feels like a good trend for the Patriots to chase if they want to get out of the NFL's cellar. Now are back-to-back seasons of bottom-five finishes and a complete reshuffling of a coaching staff, but there's also a ton of money to play with and the opportunity to plug some serious holes before we ever even get to April's NFL Draft. What should Patriot fans know about the road ahead? Take a look.
New Look Staff
Unsurprisingly, very few of Jerod Mayo's staff members are still here. Still, there was one massive departure, and it was the most recent: Cornerbacks coach Mike Pelligrino. That's a MASSIVE loss by itself, and he walked right to a division rival with whom he has a pair of great corners in Christian Benford and Tarron Johnson to coach up. I wouldn't be shocked at all if that move ages poorly. Also, I was surprised to see T.C. McCartney not be one of the few holdovers. It would be foolish to assume he didn't have a large hand in bringing along both Drake Maye and Joe Milton, and simply keeping him for familiarity's sake would've been good.
Now, what are my thoughts on Mike Vrabel as Patriots head coach now that it's been about a month since his presser? Still positive. His ability to get guys to buy in as head coach of the Titans was invaluable and something that this group needs after how last year ended, for starters. It also speaks volumes that the Titans, objectively a better team this year than last year, were notably worse with first-year head coach Brian Callahan. It was not my first choice of this group (even factoring in Ben Johnson having a staff full of Sean Payton's goons in Chicago), but this was still a great hire by the Patriots. I could say more, but those feel like the key beats.
What must you know about Terrell Williams, the new defensive coordinator? A well-traveled coaching veteran of nearly 30 years between the college and pro ranks, Mike Vrabel's right-hand man has been widely considered one of the NFL's best defensive line coaches over the last decade. Some of the NFL's best interior and edge defenders have played underneath him, from Ndamukong Suh and Cam Wake to Jeffery Simmons and Aidan Hutchinson, and just about all of those guys have spoken glowingly about him.
It would be tough to say what the scheme looks like until we get into the summer months, but I'd bet heavily on the Patriots becoming a primary even-front defense. In any case, Williams is by far my favorite of these new additions under Vrabel.
Then there's the prodigal son, Josh McDaniels. I've made it no secret that I've never really been a fan (to put it nicely), and I am very skeptical of this move until I see things for myself. Greg Bedard has brought up that he's spent time with college programs and even the Chiefs to get a new lease on life, and speaking personally, that's pure lip service at this time of year. It's not that I distrust that report, but more so the man who's now entrusted with Drake Maye, who's done nothing of note without Tom Brady or Matt Cassel at the controls of an offense that went undefeated a year prior. If he's a new man and it shows up in the offensive product, great. If not, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.
Trench Warfare
The most important thing I hope Patriots fans took away from these playoffs, even beyond the Super Bowl, is that winning in the trenches is paramount for future success. All of the final four teams (when healthy) had worst-case scenario, "good" line play on both sides of the ball. You saw the cracks that emerged for Kansas City when they had to put Joe Thuney out at guard, giving up a ton of natural leverage against these edge defenders and losing in pass protection frequently.
The hard part for the Patriots is seemingly out of the way with Drake Maye here. That said, if they want to get back into the mix, they need to do the smart thing and prioritize upgrades on both lines. I'm spitballing here, but here's an outline of some notable free agent names that I'd keep an eye on both lines.
Left Tackle Options Ranked: Cam Robinson (JAX/MIN), Alaric Jackson (LAR), Ronnie Stanley (BAL)
Left Guard Options Ranked: Trey Smith (KC), Patrick Mekari (BAL), Will Fries (IND)
IDL Options Ranked: Milton Williams (PHI), Osa Odighizuwa (DAL), Levi Onwuzurike (DET), Javon Hargrave (SF),
EDGE Options Ranked: Josh Sweat (PHI), Chase Young (NO), Malcolm Koonce (LV)
Bonus Linebackers Options Ranked: Nick Bolton (KC, I'd give him a blank check), Dre Greenlaw (SF)
Of these four groups, EDGE would be the one I'd say the Patriots would be the most willing to hold off on, especially if they can get the sense that Abdul Carter is an option at pick four in the draft. Cam Robinson would be the player of the group; I can say with confidence is the likeliest of the 13 players to end up in New England. Drafted under the Doug Marone regime in Jacksonville, who's now the OL coach in Foxborough, the hope is that he'd be closer to his 2024 Jacksonville production than his Minnesota production. For whatever reason, it never really worked out as a short-term Christian Darrisaw replacement.
Regardless of whether Tee Higgins makes it to the open market (more on him in a moment), Trey Smith might be the top outright free agent of 2025. While exclusively a right guard with the Chiefs, he did log 22 career starts at left guard for Tennessee, so if the Patriots want him to replace Cole Strange, that would be a viable option. The question is, would the Patriots feel comfortable having their two highest-paid players being guards? I could think of a lot worse scenarios, but if they feel Smith is a bit too rich for their blood, Pat Mekari would also be a more than acceptable option.
Milton Williams and Levi Onwurzurike will probably be the Patriots' two most realistic IDL options on the open market. Osa Odighizuwa will likely command north of 20 million annually, and many teams with cap space could use someone like him (Bears, Vikings, Cardinals, etc.). My only reservation about adding Milton Williams at around 15 million dollars annually is that he's never had a season eclipsing 500 snaps. Still, assuming you can pair him on the inside with a (god willing) healthy Christian Barmore, that'd be a horrifying duo on pass-downs to contend with. Not that he can't play on run-downs, by the way; only Jalen Carter had more run snaps this year for the Birds among IDLs.
Don't discount Terrell Williams's connection with Onwurzurike, either. He's nowhere near as flashy as the other two names listed, but if they miss out on the big guns, I could think of a lot worse outcomes than getting someone solid that your staff is familiar with.
Tee Higgins?
I believe that Tee Higgins won't make it to the open market, rather franchise tagged again with the Bengals, either trading him to the highest bidder (would guess a second-rounder-plus for value) or extending him and then Ja'Marr Chase as a But for argument's sake, what if the Bengals bypass the estimated 25.6 million dollar franchise tag for the veteran wideout? Guys with his skillset and production rarely, if ever, hit the open market after their rookie deals (well...plus a franchise tag year in this case), and there are at least a half dozen teams the Patriots would have to compete with for his services; most notably/realistically, the Chargers, Commanders, and Steelers.
30 million dollars per is likely the baseline, and that would mean Higgins would become, at worst, tied for the fifth-highest-paid receiver in football. Seeing as the Patriots reportedly were willing to give Brandon Aiyuk more than what the 49ers gave before that trade fell through, I don't think they would be hesitant to beat any offer. Even if it means overpaying him, this team desperately needs a true boundary X receiver. Even with some moderate injury history, that's a price the Patriots should be willing to pay if he hits the open market.
Draft Night Strategy
It's easy to say this every year, but free agency could drastically affect the Patriots' plans in the opening two days of the NFL draft. Realistically, there are only three names I'd expect to be in play: Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter, and Mason Graham. There's no guarantee that either of the first two names will slip to four, but Hunter is probably the more likely as of this moment, as it sounds like Tennessee and New York are both going quarterback, and Cleveland dealing Myles Garrett could mean Carter is likely, but not a lock, at No. 2.
Carter is the ideal pick, given the lack of a true superstar edge rusher on this team, but it's simply out of their control if he's there based on how things look right now. As far as Graham goes, I haven't done much research on him yet, but the advanced numbers indicate he's an elite high-floor prospect. If all three guys are available, the Michigan product would be my third choice, but Graham is someone I am slowly opening myself up to as time goes on. Certainly, there is a lot to like, even with a less-than-ideal wingspan. As for Hunter, he's the best prospect of the three, and even if Carter is more of what this team needs, passing on him would be tough. If you broke him up into two players, he'd be my No. 1 outright prospect this year at cornerback and my No. 5 outright prospect as a wide receiver. Unreal football player.
As for those wondering about Arizona wideout Tet McMillan, I do not believe he is worth a top 10 pick, let alone a top five. However, Texas wideout Matt Golden is a name to watch out for if the Patriots want to trade back into round one with that extra third from the Matt Judon trade. He was money for the Longhorns in their unsuccessful run to a National Championship, and he has ideal positive traits to fall back on as he enters the league (route running, separation, catch radius, ball tracking). Linebacker, IDL, and OT would be spots I'd expect the Patriots to look for on day two and early day three, meanwhile.
Early Expectations for 2025?
Without question, the Patriots should be a better football team. Whether from a talent standpoint, coaching standpoint or on any front, they have no excuses to be any worse than it got in 2024. My biggest takeaway from Vrabel's opening presser was that he wants this team's "brand" to be based on toughness, physicality, effort, and the key part for me, to "take advantage of bad football." Think of all the occasions in the past five seasons where the Patriots lost games on little things that turned into big problems. That was a great message and baseline; one way they could undoubtedly get closer to dynasty-era football anyway.
Is this team close to a Super Bowl as of right now? Absolutely not, but they didn't build Rome in a day, either. Expecting this team to be where the Commanders were in 2024 would be setting yourself up for disappointment if you ask me, but if they lay the foundation of a good, ascending football team in the coming months, don't rule out a return to above .500 play, especially considering the NFL seems to be as high on Drake Maye as Patriots fans are.
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