All good things must come to an end, and that was the case in January when the Patriots winning streak against the New York Jets came to a close. The next chapter in this pretty one-sided rivalry shifts back to the meadowlands on Thursday Night, which serves as the Jets' home opener and Aaron Rodgers' first home game since tearing his Achilles last September. It hasn't been a great start to 2024 for the Jets by any means, but they did just enough to beat a Titans team starting Will Levis and has one of the league's worst offensive lines.
This is undoubtedly a huge matchup for both teams in that they both have some very tough games through the month of October, but a loss would likely mean falling two games back of the Bills for the AFC East lead, which for the Jets is 100% the goal now that Aaron Rodgers is starting. It's not that the Patriots wouldn't like to make a divisional title run, but that certainly seems like a more pressing short-term goal for New York. With that in mind, can New England do right by legions of Jets fans and that fraud Fireman Ed and remind them who they cheer for?
Game Info
Date: Thursday, September 19
Start Time: 8:15 EST
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Stadium: MetLife Stadium
TV Info: PrimeVideo and FOX (Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants
Jets Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 21.5 (15th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.5 (t-25th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 265.5 Yards (26th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 181 Yards Per (21st) and 84.5 Yards Per (26th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 350.5 Yards (24th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 195.5 Yards Per (17th) and 155 Yards Per (25th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50%/11-22 (3rd) and 75%/11-25 (25th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 75%/3-4 (4th) and 33%/3-9 (8th)
Penalties: 10 (t-27th)
Penalty Yardage: 80 Yards (25th)
New York Jets
Defense
The Pats aren't the only ones coming into Week 3 with a major season-ending defensive injury. During their game in Tennessee on Sunday, the Jets lost their top pass rush option, Jermaine Johnson, for the year with a torn Achilles. While the Jets haven't been blanked in the sack department so far by any stretch (playing Tennessee helps that cause), Johnson was easily their premier edge rush threat, their only edge rusher with three quick pressures (pressure generated < three seconds according to NextGen Stats), and was coming off of a 7.5 sack season. Meanwhile, Haason Reddick wants nothing to do with the Jets and is AWOL, which makes last year's first-rounder Will McDonald the only true edge rush threat the Jets have to offer.
As someone who thought McDonald was a gigantic reach by Joe Douglas in last year's draft, he's objectively shown improvement in year two so far and did what he should've done last week by bulldozing inferior competition on the Titans OL, both lined up outside and inside in a three-sack, five pressure outing. Since bringing in Robert Saleh, the Jets calling card has been able to get home with only four rushers. I don't think that changes even now, with their pressure rate leading the league (mainly thanks to some phenomenal interior play). Until they get Reddick or just anyone else in the building, I'd expect to see a ton of four-man fronts consisting of McDonald, the great Quinnen Williams, Javon Kinlaw, and Michael Clemons.
The Jets' secondary situation is still excellent, and against a Patriots team that can't seemingly get their wideouts involved, they should theoretically be in line for another great outing with Sauce Gardner leading the way. The All-Pro, however, did not have an outing up to his standards in Nashville, giving up 5-of-6 targets for 97 yards, a 40-yard touchdown to Calvin Ridley (I wouldn't fault him a ton for that one, to be honest), and yielded a perfect passer rating when targeted by Will Levis. Tennessee only really had one play of those six where they tried to free one of their guys up, other than than, he just straight up got beat. Not helping Gang Green was that D.J. Reed was out with a knee injury and is in danger of missing his second straight game. As good as Gardner is, Reed is every bit as elite, and that'd be a massive loss in any game.
Another thing to note about this Jets defense is that their heartbeat, C.J. Mosely, may also miss this one with a toe issue, for starters. Additionally, Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich are going back to a lot of man coverage looks, more in line with what they did when they first got to New York. Perhaps their biggest problem so far would be this: The Jets have a league-high 31 missed tackles through two games, good for about one missed tackle for every five plays (19.5% for the kids back home). Start Rhamondre Stevenson and/or Antonio Gibson in your fantasy leagues accordingly.
Offense
Aaron Rodgers: Super Bowl 45 Winner, Creature of the Darkness, World Renowned Self Researcher, "Can Read," New York Jets Quarterback. With two full games in the books post-Achillies tear, he's not pushing the ball downfield, which you could expect, but most of his stats would indicate he's on pace for what he did in 2022. Again, minimal sample size and against two legit defenses at that, but his MVP days passed him by early on in that season, in my opinion. That said, as iffy as he looked against the Titans on Sunday on some of his 33 dropbacks, he could hit some big throws in critical spots, which might be good enough for this Jets team. Just take a look at this huge third-down conversion to Garrett Wilson.
I thought Rodgers' decision-making was suspect, which would also bring him in line with 2022, but he has the benefit of having a guy like Garrett Wilson, who can make just about any play you need him to. He's been cash money two weeks in on third down plays, with five catches on five targets for 70 yards. Sadly for New York, they don't tout much skill position talent outside of he, Breece Hall, and rookie running back Braelon Allen out of Wisconsin, who put up two scores in Nashville. Allen Lazard has 100 yards on eight grabs, but he's really on in New York because he's been in Rodgers' Inner Circle for years, and they haven't gotten guys like Mike Williams, rookie Malachi Corley, or Tyler Conklin super involved just yet, which doesn't feel super sustainable.
Now, let's talk about the offensive line, the single biggest offseason storyline with this Jets squad. They passed a couple of big early-season tests in the pass-blocking department, only allowing pressure on 23.6% of Rodgers dropbacks against the Titans and 49ers, which, if that holds, would be the lowest he's had to deal with since at least 2018. Even with 10th overall pick Olu Fashunu getting the red shirt treatment, Tyron Smith, John Simpson, and Morgan Moses have been excellent so far in pass pro. It hasn't translated to good rushing lanes for Breece Hall (or anyone else) yet, but the priority was to protect Rodgers better. After neglecting to do so last year, the Jets deserve credit for being as proactive as they were in righting that wrong.
As for some offensive notes, the Jets haven't been big into motion so far this year, and Rodgers is getting the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds on average on 51 attempts. I wouldn't be shocked if Nate Hackett tried to dial up some of the inside quick hitters that they did against San Fran to Garrett Wilson.
New England Patriots
Defense
There was never really a good time to lose Ja'Whaun Bentley for the season, but right away, when you have Sione Takitaki and hybrid-backer Marte Mapu on PUP, right now is up near the top of that list. Now the Patriots have to go 15 games without one of their top tackle-getters this last half decade, a captain, and the primary green dot wearer. If there's any consolation until they can get either TakiTaki or Mapu back, they could do a lot worse than having Raekwon McMillan out there with Jahlani Tavai, the latter of whom will probably take over a lot of Bentley's passing down responsibilities.
Luckily, the Patriots appear relatively okay on the health front outside of that, but in theory, this needs to be a pick-me-up game for this secondary after last week. After last week with DK Metcalf, there's zero reason that Christain Gonzalez shouldn't be traveling with Garrett Wilson for any less than 95% of his snaps. Adding Aaron Rodgers to the equation will be new, but we have a game's worth of snaps to suggest this works. You'll be giving up size on the boundary to Lazard, but to be frank, they deserve to lose if they can't cover him.
Assuming the Patriots can functionally take Wilson out of things, Breece Hall hasn't been able to get things going so far in 2024. The Patriots' run defense has been lights out, allowing just 3.57 a carry to running backs two games in against a back in Breece Hall, who's gone for 3.9 a carry to this point. It was hard to take much out of his games against the Patriots last year because one was a snow game, and the other was an early season Zach Wilson start, but he should be treated like a home run threat on every down, regardless of the Patriots load the box up or not.
Finally, while Keion White has been a monster through two games and trails only Aidan Hutchinson in sacks, he's only one guy, and this team needs to help pick up the slack in the pass rush department. The obvious name here would be Joshua Uche, who does have five pressures to his name as solely either a second and third-down guy, plus some first-down passing situation usage, but the good reps haven't been stacking up.
I'll be looking to see if Uche can be better off the snap because he didn't have a ton of burst off the line, even on some of the pressures he generated. Uche's speed unlocks everything for him regarding how he can attack tackles and occasionally guards, and he doesn't really have the power to overcome some late reactions off the line. In any case, getting Uche's speed-rushing ability going is huge in a matchup like this, given how quickly Rodgers' has been getting the ball out, and because he can do stuff like this when he explodes off the ball.
Offense
This week's big news offensively is that we're finally going to get what I've wanted for the last few months: Caedan Wallace (likely) will be starting at left tackle for these very New England Patriots. He only got two snaps there against Seattle after Vederian Lowe went down, which isn't a good sample size, obviously, but I've been a big fan of what he's done in the "Muscle Tight End" role as a run blocker to this point, and feel reasonably confident that will translate to his outright tackle play seemlessly.
Wallace's every-down inclusion into the run game should be welcomed, as Rhamondre Stevenson hopes to eclipse the 100 yard mark for the second time in three games. Right now, 'Mondre sits fifth in the league in rushing and has had a virtually identical start to the year as Saquon Barkley on the ground. He isn't the only rushing threat they have at their disposal, though, after the game Antonio Gibson had on the ground vs. Seattle. Having a secondary rushing option like that, which can do the amount of damage he did with only 11 carries and against a heavy dosage of stacked boxes, is massive. I wonder what his usage will be like, given that it is a Thursday game, but he's another guy I'd also like to see get more involved as a pass catcher as we move forward in 2024.
Speaking of which, it'll be challenging to unlock the passing game in this game, even without potentially dealing with C.J. Mosely over the middle. Simple and to the point, your key wideouts until Kendrick Bourne is good to go are Ja'Lynn Polk and Pop Douglas, and they need set plays to get them involved in some capacity. Douglas' frustration is warranted, in my view, and he's fully capable of giving the Patriots a spark, especially after the catch. Hopefully, AVP has some stuff planned because, if not, 10 days is a lot of time for talking heads to dissect another game with little to no WR production.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NYJ -6 (-115) | NE +6 (-105)
Moneyline: NYJ (-278) | NE (+225)
Over/Under: O 38.5 (-110) | U 38.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Wednesday, September 18
This one initially opened up with the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite, but even without the half-point, I think the Patriots are the far better option here when it comes to the spread. What's also crazy is that the Jets aren't slated to be an underdog again until December 8, when they play Miami. Not that I'd fully trust New England from a betting standpoint, but the Jets are one of only six teams worse than the Patriots ATS since Robert Saleh became head coach. My gut says Pats both ways and under this week.
Prediction
This is another early-season game for the Patriots that'll primarily come down to trench play on both sides of the ball. For whatever reason, the Jets' run defense has not been good at all so far in 2024 and almost certainly will be sans C.J. Mosely in a young season in which they've missed nearly three dozen tackles. Needless to say, I feel great about the Patriots rushing attack on Thursday. Conversely, I think Rodgers will make good use of the quick game, but if they can't run the ball effectively, I can't see them winning this game. Give me the Patriots for a sneaky big win with San Fransisco and Houston as two of their next three opponents. Feed me Fireman Ed's tears.
Final Score: New England Patriots 20, New York Jets 17
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