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Jack Gaffney

The Patriots are Primed for a Two Game Win Streak When They Take on the Tennessee Titans

On the heels of an upset win over the Jets, the Patriots begin a stretch of five road games in eight weeks, with a bye week in the middle, starting in Nashville, Tennessee, on Sunday against the Titans. The big news this week is whether or not Drake Maye will suit up or even make the trip after being put in Concussion Protocol just days ago, but he's progressed this week, and Jerod Mayo bluntly answered "yes" when asked if his rookie gunslinger could suit up.


Even so, this Titans team is...a team...that's about the nicest thing I can say about them, especially after last Sunday. Despite holding Jared Goff to a grand total of 85 yards passing in Detroit (yes, that number is accurate), their offense, currently led by Mason Rudolph, gave up four turnovers. The Titans' special teams also surrendered a punt return score, which all netted the Lions 28 of their 52 points. Yeah, not great.


But don't worry—it gets worse for them. Not only has Tennessee lost six of seven to kick off the year, but they have been outscored these last two weeks 86-24 (admittedly against Detroit and Buffalo). Not only is DeAndre Hopkins gone, but they are more than likely going to be without a half dozen key players in this game, most notably cornerback L'Jarius Snead. So, how good are the Patriots' chances this week, even if it is a Jacoby Brissett start?


Game Info

Date: Sunday, November 3rd

Start Time: 1:00 EST

Location: Nashville, Tennessee

Stadium: Nissan Stadium

TV Info: FOX (Jason Benetti and Mark Schlereth of HBO's Ballers Fame on the Call)

Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants


Titans Statistical Rankings

Points Per Game: 17.1 (28th)

Points Allowed Per Game: 28 (30th)

Offensive Yards Per Game: 281.6 Yards (30th)

Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 161.9 Yards Per (31st) and 119.7 Yards Per (17th)

Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 265.4 Yards (1st)

Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 151.6 Yards Per (1st) and 113.9 Yards Per (12th)

Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 30.6% (31st) and 31.8% (4th)

Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 55% (18th) and 61.9% (24th)

Penalties: 50 (t-14th)

Penalty Yardage: 404 Yards (14th)


Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday

Titans: L'Jarius Snead (CB), Tyjae Spears (RB) (Players who didn't practice all week include IDL T'Vondre Sweat, WR Tyler Boyd, OT Andrew Rupcich, RB Tony Pollard, and IOL Dillon Radunz)

Patriots: N/A



Tennessee Titans

Defense

Yardage hasn't been the issue for the Titans this year, but their big issues are that they don't generate turnovers; they're one of just three teams allowing opposing drives to start beyond the opposing 33-yard line on averag. Despite their offense sitting top five in time of possession and the defense only allowing over 300 yards of offense twice, they've allowed 24 points or more in 5-of-7 to open the year.


Not that this is a lack of talent issues either; there are some real-deal defenders for Tennessee this year, and that begins with the All-World IDL Jeffery Simmons, who Jacoby Brissett said was a "top 15 defender in the league" earlier this week. With Aaron Donald now retired, he moves into what I'd call "The Group of Five" among the NFL's elite interior defenders alongside Chris Jones, Dexter Lawrence, Quinnen Williams, and Christian Wilkins.


Simmons is one of the most physically dominant interior pass rushers in the league and, of course, one of the big reasons the Titans' run defense sits in the league's upper half. Having a guy like him, as well as T'Vondre Sweat, who may be out this week, gives the Titans the freedom not to load the box much, if at all, this year, only allowing a very respectable 4.3 a carry through seven games. Not that this should shock anyone, but he needs to be doubled more often than not. You cannot let him take over this game, with or without Sweat in the lineup, and even factoring in ex-BC Eagle Harold Landry off the edge.

One of the things you can typically count on this Titans defense to do is cover things well downfield. I thought they were excellent in this regard when it came to taking Amon Ra St. Brown out of things, getting bodies to him and never even giving him a shot, and really forcing a lot of short completions for Jared Goff, who only threw 15 passes. Even without L'Jarius Snead, this unit has been objectively excellent vs. the pass, especially at limiting yards after the catch. Granted, watching some of it back, they definitely weren't great at doing so vs. Bills rookie Keon Coleman, who put up 79 YAC yards on them. Even without Snead, this is not a pass defense to be trifled with, but I think there are plays to be made against their linebackers in the passing game. I especially wouldn't classify Kenneth Murray as an elite pass defender, and the Patriots should go out of their way to scheme Hunter Henry on him.

Offense

The nice things I can say about the Titans end with their defense and then punter Ryan Stonehouse. This is without question, without any doubts, an NFL offense. Is it very good? No, but it's proffesional grade. Will Levis' flameout has come much faster than I would've anticipated, which forced Mason Rudolph into the starting lineup, and although that was initialy due to an injury to Levis, I don't think you see him start again save for that scenario happening in reverse.


One of the big reasons I dislike this Titans offense was their offensive line, but to their credit, the Bill Callahan unit has only surrendered five sacks since Rudolph came into the lineup against Miami, right after allowing a whopping eight sacks against Green Bay, one of the streakiest pass rush units in the NFL. Tennessee's right side of the line is not exactly in a great spot with guard Dillon Radunz trending to be out this week and with reserve tackle Leroy Walker in the mix. If the Patriots can cover a hurt pass catching unit for Tennessee, they will have thier chances. I'd also expect to see rookie left tackle JC Latham challenged with speed if they can get a matchup they like.


The skill group for Tennessee did feature two players who directly chose the Titans over the Patriots on the open market; and then DeAndre Hopkins was dealt to KC, leaving Calvin Ridley as the undisputed top target in the music city. Beyond him, this is a team heavily banged up at wide reciever and running back. They may be down both top running backs, both top recievers, and relegated to using a ton of 12 personnel with Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as the top wideouts, and their two 100 yard tight ends Josh Whyle and Chig Okonkwo. That's probably to their liking believe it or not, but obviously, you'd want to not become to predictable and put yourself in a box against NFL defenses. A tough tightrope to walk for Head Coach Brian Callahan.


New England Patriots

Defense

While we don't know if the Patriots will be shorthanded on defense, they had several defenders either limited all week or missed a practice Wednesday and then went limited on Thursday and Friday. That group would include Kyle Dugger, who was a surprise inactive with an ankle injury in Week 8, Christian Elliss, Alex Austin, Jaquelin Roy, and Sione Takitaki. Speaking of the latter, he's at only 14 snaps in two appearances this year, and against the Jets, he was exclusively a pass-defending body when the Jets found themselves in/around the Patriots 30-yard line. I think I speak for people inside the walls of Gillette Stadium in saying you'd wish his knee issues could be resolved soon, but I think this is probably what his role will be until shown otherwise. It's a shame, too; I was very excited about the prospects of Takitaki in this defense back in the spring.


Even with the bad offensive line play for Tennessee, the one thing that worries me about this matchup is Tennessee stretching its running attack outside. Teams like the Jets, Dolphins, 49ers, and Texans have found ways to be the Patriots outside the tackles, and especially with a team likely trotting out a third-string back in Julius Chestnut, don't give Tennessee a reason to feel confident about their ground attack. They've averaged about 149 a game when their run game is 60% outside runs (three games). Stack the box, put Christian Gonzalez on Calvin Ridley, and force Mason Rudolph to beat you. If you can't accomplish that, much like the Miami game, the Patriots don't deserve a road win.


Offense

It's not a stretch to say the early game script will depend on who the starting quarterback for the Patriots is, but I think most Patriots fans know what the key to this week is, and that's simply the receivers catching the ball. Even Kayshon Boutte, who was monumental in that comeback victory, couldn't escape the dropsies, while Pop Douglas and Kendrick Bourne weren't exactly as sure-handed as we've come to expect out of them. If there was ever a time to throw out Javon Baker on the boundary against a team not playing a top-five corner in the sport, this would be that time. One thing I saw last week watching that Patriots game-winning drive last week was that Baker was visibly hyping up his guys from the sidelines on a majority of those plays. It's nice to see from a rookie who'd probably want to be out there more, and hopefully, this is his time. Jerod Mayo praised his performance in practice this week; could it finally be time for the UCF product?

Based on the looks the Lions were able to generate off of this Titans defense, I do envision Jacoby Brissett being up to the task against them as well, under the assumption Alex Van Pelt takes a page out of Ben Johnson's book and stresses the short passing game. It's probably going to be a lot of tough yards no matter what on the ground, and despite the numbers, Rhamondre Stevenson was definitely good a week ago, but if they can consistently pick up those 5-7-yard quick hitters, those will stack up. The gameplan probably won't change a ton, assuming Maye is cleared, but obviously, he's a notably better scramble threat, and if you can get the Titans to condense things, they should go out of their way to attack some of these down the batting order cornerbacks vertically.


Betting Info

Points Spread: TEN -3.5 (-118) | NE +3.5 (-102)

Moneyline: NYJ (-166) | NE (+140)

Over/Under: O 38 (-108) | U 38 (-112)

Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, November 1

Sunday marks the third time the Titans have been favored in 2024, and looking at the look-ahead lines, the final time it'll be the case this season. They are 0-2 when favored this year, losing in blowout fashion to Malik Willis and the Packers, then allowing 10 unanswered in the fourth quarter to Joe Flacco's Colts in a three-point loss. 1-6 outright and ATS this year, the Titans are one of, if not the single least reliable betting teams in football alongside the Dolphins and Panthers, so I can't say I'd feel confident with them here if I were putting money down. Patriots both ways, and the over would be my play. Fun fact: Patriots games have gone over in four of their last five, five of their previous seven, and three in a row.


Prediction

The Titans defense isn't a unit to be slept on, but I have not a single reason to believe in the Tennessee Titan offense in their current state. They'll probably find a way to string together a touchdown drive or two, but I don't know if that'll be enough, especially if Drake Maye is playing or if what we say out of Brissett in the second half vs. New York can be expected again. I reckon it won't be a pretty win for the Patriots, but it's a win I expect all the same.


Final Score: New England Patriots 27, Tennessee Titans 17



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