Just four games remain for the Patriots in this 2024 season, and luckily for them, they get their longest remaining road game right out of the way before sticking in the northeast from there on out. Their opponent? An Arizona Cardinals team that's been frisky for just about the whole season, but their postseason hopes are hanging on by a thread as we hit the middle of December. Out of their own bye week, Jonathan Gannon's squad has lost three straight, including two to the division-leading Seattle Seahawks, leaving them in a position where they do not control their own destiny in the Wild Card race.
Especially in this spot, the Patriots should expect to get the best out of the (one of several teams that are) Birds. They're in a weird limbo for the second straight year where a late-season upset win would do this group well, but as someone on the outside, we're officially on Travis Hunter/Tet McMillan watch for the 2025 NFL Draft with New England slotted with the No. 3 pick. A lot can happen in four weeks, and if the Patriots were to win before Week 18, where I'd expect Buffalo to rest starters, this would be the most likely of those.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 15
Start Time: 4:25 EST
Location: Glendale, Arizona
Stadium: State Farm Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, and Jay Feely on the call)
Patriots Uniform Info: Blue Tops, Grey Pants
Cardinals Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 21.8 (18th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.2 (t-12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 348 Yards (12th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 208.2 Yards Per (22nd) and 139.8 Yards Per (6th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 340.5 Yards (20th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 218.7 Yards Per (19th) and 121.8 Yards Per (18th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 40.4% (11th) and 46.3% (30th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 51.2% (24th) and 47.8% (5th)
Penalties: 67 (32nd)
Penalty Yardage: 622 Yards (25th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Cardinals: Emari Demercado (RB), Elijah Jones (CB), Blake Gillikin (P, surely that won't lead to any shennanigans)
Patriots: Javon Baker, Caedan Wallace, Jaquelin Roy (placed on IR; all but assured to be season ending)
Arizona Cardinals
Defense
One of the key areas where I wouldn't say I liked this Cardinals' defense coming into the year was their pass rush, and of course, losing first-rounder Darius Robinson before the season didn't help with that. However, one of the most shocking developments at any point in the NFL season is that the Cardinals outright lead the NFL in sacks over their last five games with 19. It's hard to say anything other than that playing the Bears front gave Arizona a ton of confidence, and now they may end the year with the top 10 in the league. There's no true standout on this group, but Zaven Collins, L.J. Collier, Dante Stills, and even off-ball-backers Kyzir White and old friend Mack Wilson have all been pitching in, and it's added up over the last month; at least before they got blanked by the Seahawks last Sunday, anyway.
Last weekend also ended a great stretch of run defense performances for the Cardinals as well. Zach Charbonnet ran buck-wild in the desert, and it was consistently because Arizona was either not stacking the box, which isn't the worst idea seeing what Seattle has on the boundary, or more unforgivable, missing/whiffing on tackles. Charbonnet had four 10-plus yard runs and worked his way out of about nine tackles. That was a jarring contrast to what they were able to accomplish in their four prior games, allowing a tick over 3.6 yards per carry. If they can't wrap up, I'd fully expect the Patriots to pound the rock early and often.
Budda Baker is, of course, the key name on this defense and secondary in particular, but Garrett Williams has been second-year slot cornerback Garrett Williams. He had a rough game last week, getting turned around twice by Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 43 yards and a TD, but he has very quietly been one of the NFL's top slot defenders otherwise. Jonathan Gannon has sung his praises at the podium, lauding his work ethic and leadership. I, for one, am very excited to see him take on Pop Douglas down in the slot.
Offense
For Cardinals star QB Kyler Murray, his air yards per attempt numbers were a big storyline coming out of Week 14. The 5.3 air yards on average were the former Heisman's second-lowest of this season, and the 29 passes under 10 yards were his season low. Malpractice would be a fine word to use there when he has guys like MHJ and elite tight end Trey McBride to throw to downfield. Drew Petzing has relied a ton on the screen and short game with this offense, and I don't believe that's the best usage of these passing attack guys. Harrison's usage has also come into question, leading to a very hot and cold rookie year, but in fairness, he's shown some elite chops vs. press coverage and is getting top CB matchups right away. Even then, the Cardinals also have some interesting order options in Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, who bear mentioning.
I expect James Conner to have a good outing against a Patriots defense that is hurt in the trenches this week. He had a great game vs. the Patriots a couple of years ago, and that was without Kyler for 95% of the snaps. He's having another great year and is on the cusp of securing his second-ever 1,000-yard rushing campaign. I have a hard time seeing the Patriots prevent him from getting a ton of body-blow-style runs.
New England Patriots
Defense
The one area where I thought the Patriots did well defensively last time out was in their cornerback usage, sacrificing outright skill to match up better with the size the Colts put out on the boundary. MHJ and Michael Wilson stand at 6'4" and 6'2", respectively, so I expect there won't be much of Jonathan Jones/Marcus Jones out on the field simultaneously. Kyler Murray is obviously a better quarterback than Anthony Richardson, but matching up with size was one of the few things, if not the only thing, that was good by the Patriots two weeks ago.
The one way I believe the Patriots can bring this offense to a standstill is by not necessarily focusing on MHJ but rather on McBride, who's been Murray's go-to guy all season long, but certainly these last three weeks (31 receptions on 41 targets for 299 yards). Now, do I trust the Patriots' middle third/box guys to keep him contained? I'd lean no, but if you take him out, and assumingly Gonzalez does his job on Harrison/Wilson, you'd be putting all the pressure on Conner.
Also for my own mental sake, please do not lose contain on Kyler Murray.
Offense
Caedan Wallace is still awaiting his return, but we could finally get Cole Strange live game reps on Sunday for the first time in a year. His elevation meant that the Patriots had to cut KJ Osborn, which isn't a massive loss, but now that he's on the 53-man unit, I'd imagine we get him starting at center this weekend, barring something last minute. Expect things from left to right to go Lowe-Robinson-Strange/Brown-Onwenu-Jacobs. I'd certainly be nervous about the fact that the Cardinals have been able to be hot upfront without much blitzing, but this week is more about getting Cole Strange back in the mix than anything with the OL.
Another worry this week is the Patriots red zone offense, which was atrocious against the Colts, but if it's any consolation, getting there wasn't a massive issue, so at least that's something. Alex Van Pelt mentioned that poor spacing against the Colts did not help matters inside the 20, and there was at least one mesh-adjacent play call where Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry were both working, left no more than three yards away from each other. That can't happen, especially when it's 3rd&7, and you need to put up six. Outside of that, I think the Patriots should be able to move the ball against the Cardinals' team, both on the ground and through the air. AVP just has to do his part.
Betting Info
Points Spread: ARI -6 (-105) | NE +6 (-115)
Moneyline: ARI (-230) | NE (+190)
Over/Under: O 46.5 (-108) | U 46.5 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, December 13
Sunday will mark just the fourth time this year Arizona has been favored at home, losing both outright and ATS twice to the Commanders and Seahawks while the Bears are their only cover as a home favorite. The six points they're laying here are by far the most of those four matchups, which would certainly give me pause if I liked Arizona. My gut says Patriots ATS, Cardinals Moneyline, and under this week.
Also; for some wild but true trends as it relates to Kyler Murray: He was 4-7 through 2022 on Call of Duty Double XP Weekends, which there is one this weekend. Secondly, he's 8-23 outright in games beyond Week 11 in his career. Do with that information what you will.
Prediction
The Patriots may very well put up a good fight in the desert, but the Cardinals cannot afford to lose, and should they, the heat on OC Drew Petzing will increase about 10-fold. Suppose Arizona gets out to an early lead, I can easily envision James Conner being able to control the pace and kill the clock on his own. Even if the Patriots can get some stops, I'd need to see it for myself before trusting them with red-zone production. This one feels like another of many games where the Patriots ultimately fall just short.
Final Score: Arizona Cardinals 20, New England Patriots 17
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