Despite entering another season with Super Bowl aspirations, things have started pretty miserable for the 49ers. Brandon Aiyuk hasn't been very effective to start the year after his contract hold-in. Christian McCaffrey hasn't played a down yet due to an Achilles issue, which he's now going to Germany to get dealt with. Star interior defender Javon Hargrave is now out for the year with a triceps tear, and we haven't even hit the fact they're now 1-2 after blowing a fourth-quarter lead to the Rams; the exact same situation the Patriots find themselves in after three games.
Needless to say, I feel that this San Fran team isn't in the greatest of moods after the last few weeks and has every reason to put on a statement performance after two straight losses. But is there anything the Patriots may have picked up on tape these last two weeks to make the 49ers sweat this one out?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 29
Start Time: 4:05 EST
Location: Santa Clara, California
Stadium: Levi's Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Joe Davis and Greg Olsen on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants
49ers Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 23.7 (t-10th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 23 (21st)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 407.3 Yards (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 267.7 Yards Per (2nd) and 139.7 Yards Per (10th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 321.7 Yards (16th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 217.7 Yards Per (20th) and 104 Yards Per (9th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 41.2% (11th) and 52.9% (30th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50% (15th) and 60% (21st)
Penalties: 15 (t-26th)
Penalty Yardage: 180 Yards (11th)
San Francisco 49ers
Defense
Before we discuss what's gone wrong for the 49ers, I will present this overlay NextGen Stats spray chart of teams that have played San Francisco so far.
Everything inside the Red Box is what we call Fred Warner's Domain. No linebacker in the NFL is better, period, but especially so when it comes to pass coverage, and Jacoby Brissett/Alex Van Pelt would be wise to treat him like the old guard did Ed Reed back in the day; he's that good—quick thought over.
Now, what's gone wrong for the 49ers these last two weeks defensively? New DC Nick Sorensen's unit ranks 25th in defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) and 29th in defensive EPA per rush attempt, only ahead of the Rams, Bucs, and (trending to be) historically bad Cowboys run defenses. Defending against duo concepts has been a challenge for them in every game they've played so far this year, and that'll only get worse with Hargrave on the shelf.
Losing Hargrave will also drastically hurt the 49ers' pass rush as well, as he had six pressures through three games (five of which were recorded in less than three seconds), but San Francisco still has some formidable names. Take Nick "Bootstraps" Bosa, for example (if you know, you know). He's not off to the monster start that guys like Aidan Hutchinson, Boye Mafe, or even Keion White are (which is objectively crazy to say), but he's been rock solid once again for this 9ers outfit so far. Perusing through 49ers' Twitter, most aren't impressed by the start of the new face opposite Bootstraps Bosa Leonard Floyd. He's recorded a sack and seven pressures, but the lone sack and four of those pressures came in Week 1, and he's not been much of a factor since—Floyd's someone they need to get going, and in a big way.
Offense
I haven't gotten the opportunity to talk about Brock Purdy at length, but I want it on the record that I think he's great. Crucify me or boo me if you must, but the kid can play. He makes great decisions in the pocket, is tough as nails, can make throws out of the pocket and on the run, and probably has a little bit more arm talent than people would want to give him credit for. Even in a loss out in LA, he was phenomenal and gave San Francisco a shot to win even when the other two units had very subpar days.
The thing so far in 2023 is that his go-to guy hasn't been Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or even the NFL's top tight end, George Kittle, for that matter (yes, he's better than Kelce, and there hasn't been a point in the last five years that I've thought otherwise); that would be the man who was well on his way to Super Bowl MVP honors back in Feburary, Jauan Jennings. Three weeks in, he leads the 49ers in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, yards per reception, and EPA per reception. He's a big body with the ability to separate, and he has some elite hands, perfectly demonstrated by this outrageous Moss grab against the Rams.
Another factor in this 49ers offense has been Jordan Mason, the de-facto Christian McCaffery replacement. Going into Week 4, Mason is the NFL's No. 2 rusher behind Saquon Barkley and leads the league in carries. The third-year UDFA out of Georgia Tech has had the benefit of Grand Canyon-sized holes to run through thanks to his offensive line, plus Kyle Juzczyk and Kittle, but he's proven to be a big playmaker on the ground for them, which, for me, makes the CMC loss null and void.
This is certainly not an offense at 100% health, but it is still one of the best in the league, and they are an absolute handful to deal with in every facet. The Pats will have their hands full.
New England Patriots
Defense
We saw the impact of not having Ja'Whaun Bentley out there a week-plus ago, and this defense needs to step up in the middle third because there's a 99% chance he's not coming back this year. The thing is, things aren't getting easier this week when they'll have to deal with...checks notes...George Kittle is working inside the numbers, and potentially Deebo Samuel, depending on how today's (Friday) practice goes for him. Additionally, even if Trent Williams were to miss this game, I do expect the Patriots to give up some plays in the run game, and that's just more of a 'San Fran is just that good of a run-blocking team' thing than anything else.
Christian Gonzalez, while giving up six points on a Garrett Wilson grab, had a solid outing against the Jets, but for this weekend, I genuinely believe you have to have him travel with Jennings instead of Aiyuk, based on what happened to the Rams last week, and that the Patriots have no one else with the size/skill combo to match up on him definitively. If Aiyuk ends up waking up playing Jonathan or Marcus Jones, so be it, but in my mind, that's the matchup I'd want, and I imagine the Patriots feel the same way.
The one area where I think the Patriots can make things interesting in this game is the pass rush. Brock Purdy has faced 42 pressures in three games (6th in the NFL), and should the aforementioned Williams be out, that would certainly only help the cause. Remember, when the 49ers had that multi-game losing streak a year ago, that was all with Williams hurt and out of the lineup. With that in mind, I'd watch a certain edge rusher wearing No. 99.
One last thing that I wanted to touch on defensively was the amount of man coverage they ran last week against the Jets. Right now, they rank in the top five in man-to-man defensive usage in the league and are against a team with the two best separators vs. man in the entire league (Aiyuk and Jennings). I think you have to be very cautious about going to the well and allowing Purdy to play the matchup game if you're DeMarcus Covington; we all saw what happened with Aaron Rodgers last week.
Offense
Still playing the offensive line shuffle, there is at least some good news for the Patriots in Week 4: Sidy Sow is back practicing for the first time since the preseason, and the expectation is that he'll be in the lineup come Sunday. That's a massive re-addition in that he was one of the NFL's top run-blocking guards in the league last year as a rookie, and he'd undoubtedly be better than what they had as a pass blocker these first few weeks, with all due respect to Michael Jordan.
The other end of this equation is that the Patriots are now also starting their fourth different left tackle in as many weeks. Meet Demontrey Jacobs, a 6'6" Grambling and USF alumn who went undrafted in 2023, spending that year with the Denver Broncos before landing in Foxborough exactly a month ago off the waiver wire. It appears that Caedan Wallace is battling something after last week, so the big man is next up and in line for his first career start. Here's what Jerod Mayo had to say about Jacobs this week.
It's worth noting that PFF had Jacobs down as having a pretty good preseason, but going from the Cardinals, Packers, and Colts backups to the 49ers starters is a massive step up in competition for the 25-year-old. He's 100% going to have bad reps on Sunday; it'll just be a matter of how many and if he can not allow those in crucial spots. Either way, this is a massive opportunity for someone who wasn't even part of this team's plans a month ago.
While not getting Jacoby Brissett decapitated is the top priority after last week, Alex Van Pelt can't abandon the run as quickly as they did last Thursday. It's their best asset offensively, and with some of the holes San Francisco has in the A and B gaps, I think you have to dictate terms and run duo on them until they find a way to stop it. The other end of this equation is that I actually want to see them stick to what they did last week with the play-action usage. They absolutely had chances to hit some chunk plays if not for a bad Brissett throw to Austin Hooper, and then...you know...the protection.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SF -10.5 (-110) | NE +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SF (-600) | NE (+440)
Over/Under: O 40.5 (-110) | U 40.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, September 26
San Fran is laying a ton of points here on a two-game losing streak, but that isn't without reason. Despite going 3-7 ATS as a home favorite last season (reg+postseason), they've covered more than any other team as a home favorite in the NFL since 2022 and are tied with the Cowboys for the most covers since 2021. I think you'd have to go 49ers both ways and then I'd lean with the under here, although not by much.
Prediction
Of all the times the Patriots would've wanted to draw the 49ers this season, right now is at the top of the list, and even then, I don't think it matters. Even as hurt as they are, they're too good and too well coached, and off of back-to-back losses, they have every reason to go into Sunday as dialed in as they've been since the playoffs at the beginning of the year. Kyle Shannahan can't afford to fall three games back of Mike Macdonald and the Seattle Seahawks this early this season, and I think he coaches this one like it's a must-win, and the 49ers play accordingly in all three phases.
Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 27, New England Patriots 10
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