Welp, the Matt Judon situation is finally over, but probably not in the way Patriots fans would've hoped. As first reported by Jordan Schultz, New England's leader in sacks this decade is officially off to the Atlanta Falcons for the price of a 2025 third-round draft pick. Additionally, with it being reported that Judon was included in an agreed-upon Brandon Aiyuk trade offer last week, it's now crystal clear that Eliot Wolf didn't factor in the soon-to-be 32-year-old pass rusher into this team's future plans at the price point he wanted.
While it is very sad to see a vital part of the post-Brady era leave like this, despite seemingly wanting to stick things out, this was a good piece of business on multiple fronts by Wolf when you look at this trade on paper. Here's why.
Top 100 Value
First and foremost, getting a third-round pick back for Judon straight up is excellent value for the Patriots. Looking a bit more recently, seeing the Panthers only getting a second-rounder for Brian Burns is one way to look at this, but Alex Barth over at the SportsHub made an excellent point to use the Khalil Mack to the Chargers trade as a better baseline, given age mainly. That trade, for reference, was Mack to LA for a second-round and sixth-round pick, which, given that Mack was only a year removed from a Second-Team All-Pro bid, it's not hard to see why he netted a better return.
Also, noting that Mack was a bit younger than Judon is right now and then factoring in Judon missed almost all of last season, a third-rounder, a pick that'll end up being top 100 at worst, was a great return. Something also to note is if the Patriots were to lose him in free agency next March simply, they almost certainly wouldn't get this good of a return in the comp pick formula. Even if someone on the open market would've been willing to spend big money on Judon, the Patriots would've likely negated things by (hopefully) spending big in free agency, with a ton of cap to work with again next offseason.
Now, if you're Atlanta, you've got the guy you've desperately needed upfront since 2016. Assuming Judon pans out as expected, not having an extra top-100 draft pick may sting, but the possible reward is well worth the risk.
Opening Up Reps
The second leg of this for the Patriots is the doors it opens down the depth chart to see what you have off the edge, specifically Keion White in this instance. It's not an unreasonable expectation to want more out of him in year two, and with Judon officially out of the picture, the need for improvement has increased 10 fold. Anfernee Jennings was spectacular last year, but there's only so much he can do as run defending specialist, and it's hard to say what expectations are for Joshua Uche after a very disappointing 2023, or even camp standout Oshane Ximines. Simply put, if this team wants to improve in the sack department this year, it has to start with White.
A Sad End
The vibe from Patriots fans seems pretty universal in that people are sad to see a critical guy, who seemingly wanted to be here for the rest of his career, go like this. Judon watched as this front office paid every key defensive free agent, three key 2025 free agents in Rhamondre Stevenson, Jabril Peppers, and Christian Barmore, and then swung and missed on a small handful of free agents such as Calvin Ridley and Tyron Smith. Despite that, and enough cap room and outright cash to play with, the Patriots simply didn't want to pay him what he was asking for. While this trade is a good long-term move for this franchise, you wish things had ended differently.
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