Well, we've made it. After the most consequential offseason in team history, the New England Patriots are only days away from kicking off a new season and the first in the Jerod Mayo era. Although the expectations this year aren't exactly Super Bowl or Bust, it's nice to have some meaningful football back in New England these next few months.
Kicking things off, the Pats are off to Cincinnati for their first of four away/neutral site games in seven weeks. They will play a Bengals team that fell off the rails once Joe Burrow went down for the season with a wrist injury vs. the Ravens. With a new offensive coordinator and fresh faces on both sides of the ball, the Bengals hope to start a campaign to reclaim the NFC North on the right foot, having lost five of their last seven Week 1 bouts. Factoring in that tidbit and some other notes we'll get to, it's not all that improbable the Patriots could pull off a Week 1 upset here.
Date: Sunday, September 8
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Stadium: Paycor Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Ian Eagle and Charles Davis on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants (Bengals are debuting a Mono Orange look)
Bengals Statistical Rankings (2023)
Points Per Game: 21.5 (16th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.6 (21st)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 318.9 Yards (22nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 229.1 Yards Per (15th) and 89.8 Yards Per (31st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 374.6 Yards (31st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 248.4 Yards Per (28th) and 126.2 Yards Per (26th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.6% (20th) and 40.8% (22nd)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 59.6% (10th) and 51.7% (11th)
Penalties: 76 (31st)
Penalty Yardage: 614 Yards (32nd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Bengals: Kris Jenkins (IDL), Amarius Mims (OT) (Tee Higgins officially Doubtful, Ja'Marr Chase Questionable)
Patriots: Sidy Sow (IOL)
Cincinnati Bengals
Defense
Not many teams can say they have a better DC than Lou Anarumo, but the Bengals' defense struggled mightily at times last year, even while touting names like Trey Hendrickson, D.J. Reader, Logan Wilson, and Daxton Hill. Losing Reader was massive, but Cincy was able to add Sheldon Rankins and Geno Stone through UFA and Kris Jenkins in the draft to hopefully get this unit back into a respectable spot.
Sticking to the run defense aspect, Cincinnati wasn't good at defending the run a year ago, and based on some looks into Bengals' Twitter, there doesn't appear to be much optimism about it improving much, if at all, in 2024. I wouldn't put D.J. Reader in that top tier of interior defender, but he's undoubtedly an elite run defender, but that didn't help them at all last year. Now, without their top 0-Tech/NT option, there's going to be a ton of pressure on Kris Jenkins, one of the anchors of Michigan's title campaign, is going to be under a ton of pressure when it comes to his run game snaps once they get him back (I agree with the sentiment that they shouldn't play him as an NT. That's not his game). If they can't defend the run, that'll hurt this pass rush that features Hendrickson, who had 17.5 of them last season, and Sam Hubbard, naturally limiting their opportunities off the edge.
Meanwhile, while the Bengals' pass defense was somehow worse than the run defense last year, I don't think the Patriots are exactly getting last year's unit on Sunday, mainly due to the signing of Geno Stone and the re-signing of Vonn Bell. Two years removed from the loss of Jessie Bates, the former Raven (Stone) once again gives the Bengals an elite instinctual safety who has an uncanny knack for the football. Playing a career-high 951 snaps for Baltimore last season, Stone racked up seven picks and nine PBU's. A guy like him in an Anarumo defense has downright horrifying potential if all goes according to plan.
The Patriots should also have some chances to make some plays against the Bengals' cornerbacks, but Mike Hilton has been great for just about his entire career, and top outside corner Cam Taylor-Britt isn't exactly a slouch himself. There are definiteces here for Cincy; it's just a matter of how quickly they can get going and get back to where they were, stopping the run in 2021-2022.
Offense
Not much needs to be said about the Bengals' level of talent on offense, but Joe Burrow's health again came into question last season, first with a preseason calf injury and then a ligament tear in his wrist in the middle of the year. Speaking personally, he's the second-best quarterback in the game, and I believe the calf injury did him no favors in the first month of the year. That said, Bengals fans hope he'll be able to make it through 17 games once again if the Super Bowl is the intented goal.
Star wideout Ja'Marr Chase and his contract situation have been one of the bigger storylines of this offseason as he looks to become the highest-paid WR in the NFL despite having two whole years left on his rookie deal. He's been out there practicing these last two days, though, meaning the Patriots aren't getting any breaks, and both he and Tee Higgins are good to go. The last time these two teams played, Higgins killed them simply because the Patriots had no one to match up against his 6'4" frame. As much as the idea of Chase vs. Christain Gonzalez gets fans excited, and it should, by the way, I think Gonzo sees a lot more of Higgins this weekend. Also, watch for 'Bama rookie Jermaine Burton, the new No. 3 with Tyler Boyd gone.
What should also help Burrow this year is that his offensive line got some notable upgrades, even as they lost Jonah Williams to Arizona. Old friend Trent Brown is now opposite Zeus Brown Jr. at right tackle; they drafted mammoth tackle prospect Amarius Mims in round one of the draft while returning another old friend in Tad Karras, along with Alex Kappa. We wont see all three of those tackles out there on Sunday, but I for one, am very excited to see how some potential six OL looks go for the Bengals this year. Having all three of your top tackle options being 6'8" monsters will make for some comically funny film moments in the right circumstances.
New England Patriots
Defense
I could think of easier games to make your debut as a defensive coordinator than this week for DeMarcus Covington. That said, he told reports Thursday morning in Foxborough that he feels prepared for this moment, citing spending the offseason calling game replays as one way he's gotten ready for this.
As far as game planning goes, I'd feel pretty confident in saying expect a lot of big nickel looks and dime package usage to match up with a heavy dose of 11 personnel and passing on the other side. Not that the Bengals were running it much anyway last year, but two years ago, when these teams played, they had Joe Burrow throw 52 times to give you an idea of what to expect. Obviously, the main five pieces in this secondary will be critical, but the key guys to me this week are Jahlani Tavai, last year's No. 5 graded linebacker in football per PFF, and newcomer safety Jaylin Hawkins, who should see a lot of time out back this weekend, which should help out Kyle Dugger and get him in the box more often than not.
Moving to Tavai, it should be pretty obvious that he's a true triple-threat in that he can rush the passer, stop the run, and defend the pass at a pretty high level, but also because this Patriots team is without both Marte Mapu and Sione Takitaki for this opening stretch of the season. His performance, more so as a pass defender, becomes notably more important until either guy returns, more so Takitaki, who was the NFL's top pass-defending linebacker last season.
Offense
The game plan for the Patriots this week should be the exact s for when they play the Seahawks and Jets on the other side: Run the Goddamn Ball. The best way to ensure Jacoby Brissett doesn't get mauled in the pocket is to pound the rock, and they'll get ample oppurtunity to do so by playing three of the eight worst run defenses from a year ago to open the year.
Last season, in the Browns' season-opening blowout victory over Cincinnati, Nick Chubb averaged a fraction south of six yards per carry. Going back and looking at all 18 of his carries, he had a lot of success in zone looks, and to me, that's the likely formula that AVP will tap into again here. Even at two yards less per carry, that would stack up for Rhamondre Stevenson, who hopes he begins 2024 as he did before his season-ending injury against the Chargers. Get 38 the ball early and often on gap or zone looks.
Speaking of looking at old film, we do have a Jacoby Brissett Browns start against the Bengals to go off of from 2022 (with AVP as the OC, but not the play caller). That was another run-heavy game plan by Cleveland. Nick Chubb had another 100-plus yard night as well, but outside of a few negative plays (a sack that should've been a medium gain through the air and then a strip sack), Brissett did a lot of really excellent that game. There was a multi-drive stretch in the third quarter and early into the fourth where he was shredding up zone looks, and although they only ran play action four times, once resulted in a goaline scramble TD, and the other three went for 13-plus yards gains, one being a 37 yard completion with a jumbo set vs. a jailbreak blitz, where Brissett had to make a semi-difficult throw to the boundary on a deep in.
They don't need Brissett to be a world beater, but he can certainly give this team a chance to win this weekend if his protection holds up. Easier said than done (speciffically when it comes to the tackle situation), but some of those 2022 outings in AVP's offense were great (said Browns game, as well as game vs. Buffalo that was moved to Detroit on an emergency basis). Look for him to try and get Hunter Henry, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Pop Douglas involved early. Regarding the former, the Bengals weren't precisely world-beaters covering tight ends a year ago.
Betting Info
Points Spread: CIN -8.5 (-108) | NE +8.5 (-112)
Moneyline: CIN (-412) | NE (+320)
Over/Under: O 41 (-110) | U 41 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, September 6
In the If been hammering Cincinnati ATS when they've been a favorite at home, you've been enjoying winning a lot. The Bengals' 12-3-0 record since 2022 and 16-5-0 record since 2021 rank seventh and fifth in the NFL, respectively, under those parameters. The catch is this: Their average margin of victory is less than the 8.5 points they're laying here under either circumstance, much less including only 2023 (average MOV of 5.9 as a home favorite a year ago).
Last year, the Patriots were only an 8.5-point dog or more twice (+10 vs. Kansas City, resulting in a push, then covering in Buffalo as a 15-point dog), so I believe there's some real value with New England here, especially factoring in the amount of public money the Bengals are getting here. As far as the O/U goes, I'd trust the Patriots' defense enough and distrust their offense just enough to believe this one is going under. You could talk me into either side out right here, but I'd feel perfectly good with the Pats ATS plus the under.
Prediction
In my view, the Patriots, in theory, have shots to win any of their first three games, mainly due to the quality of run defenses they face. Although dodging Ja'Marr Chase would've been big, the Patriots have done and said all the right things this week, saying they'll prepare for him no matter what and, worst case scenario, treat him as a surprise late inactive if this holdout got to that point. Granted, I don't know if his game legs will be there right away, so the Patriots might have that going for them (in before he has a 65-plus-yard touchdown at any point on Sunday, even if he's limited).
There might be a bit of homerism on my end, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots grit this one out in Cincy; more than that, it's what I'm picking here. It'll be an ugly win if so, but this team exclusively won ugly last season, so it should be nothing new for some of the holdovers and veterans. I can certainly understand the outside skepticism with the offense sans Drake Maye, but I don't think football fans realize how good this defense is/can be, even without Matt Judon or Christian Barmore.
Final Score: New England Patriots 20, Cincinnati Bengals 17
Main Image via
תגובות