I cannot promise you that this weekend's Patriots game will be worthwhile to watch. What I can promise you (yes, you right there reading this) is that an NFL football game will be played between two live NFL football teams on a field that is 160x360 feet in a stadium that will seat a TBD number of people. It will likely be reprehensible slop both ways...but I'll watch every second of it without question.
The Patriots and Dolphins are currently the NFL's two worst-scoring offenses through four weeks. They have significant key injuries on both sides of the ball and have each lost three straight games by an average score of at least 13.5 points, including a blowout loss on Thursday Night Football in both cases. Safe to say the optimism levels couldn't be lower...well...unless you're a Jacksonville Jaguars fan, that is. Even while we have mixed reports of a mutiny in the Patriots locker room (I don't have any reason to disbelieve Evan Lazar or Karen Guregian and probably never will), they do have a chance to get some momentum before a date with the Texans, and then a London trip. Will they capitalize on it, even with everything going wrong?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 6
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Chris Myers and March Sanchez on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: All Blue
Dolphins Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 11.3 (32nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 25.8 (26th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 285 Yards (26th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 187.3 Yards Per (23rd) and 97.8 Yards Per (24th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 286.2 Yards (6th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 162.5 Yards Per (6th) and 119.5 Yards Per (16th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.6% (25th) and 40.8% (1st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 59.6% (31st) and 51.7% (31st)
Penalties: 37 (3rd)
Penalty Yardage: 336 Yards (2nd)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: Jordan Poyer (SAF), Jaelan Phillips (EDGE, season-ending IR)
Patriots: Jabrill Peppers, David Andrews (officially done for the season), Caedan Wallace (placed on IR) (Sione Takitaki listed as doubtful his first week off PUP)
Miami Dolphins
Defense
Despite only giving up two touchdowns and forcing a lifeless Titans passing offense to 110 yards between Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, Miami isn't exactly in a position to allow as many field goals as they did and would've lost on the five made tries by Patriots Icon Nick Folk alone. New DC Anthony Weaver, former Ravens Assistant Head Coach/DLine Coach, has done an ok job given that this Dolphins unit came into the year hurt and without some key pieces from a year ago, but his unit did give up 31 points to the Titans at the end of the day; not exactly the greatest look.
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they'll once again be without edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, as he's again suffered a season-ending lower-body injury (Achilles last season, undisclosed knee injury this year). That's a massive blow for a team still waiting for Bradley Chubb to return after he got hurt late last year and currently ranks seventh to last in both sacks and total pressures through four weeks. Oddly enough, though, Miami is nearly in the top 10 in pressure percentage, so make of that what you will. They still have Emmanuel Ogbah off the edge and then future Hall of Famer Calais Campbell plus Zach Sieler on the inside, so they can still get home, but Phillips is a gigantic loss; super fun player when he's a full go too.
The secondary of the Dolphins also not at 100%, which includes star corner Jalen Ramsey, who Omar Kelly reports has a knee issue, and safety Jordan Poyer, who's already been ruled out this week. I would be more shocked if Ramsey doesn't play, but remember that he missed a chunk of time last year after a torn meniscus in training camp. In the meantime, Kendall Fuller will be back in the lineup defensively after being concussed vs. Seattle, which would be massive given the iffy play of slot corner Kader Kohou, who we've come to understand is the bane of Dolphins Twitter's existence. Also, we'll get to David Long once we get to the Patriots offense section, but yeah...not great in pass coverage this year.
Offense
The biggest thing I hope football fans take from Tua being out right now is that he's better than most people think because Miami might be one of the few teams that are a more dreadful offensive watch right now than the Patriots, which says a lot. Being on your fourth quarterback doesn't help, but some of the fire Mike McDaniel has come under is warranted. This offense still features Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, Devon Achane, Raheem Mostert, and my sweet prince Jonnu Smith (I hate you, Josh McDaniels), and cannot move the ball anywhere but backward or to a standstill. Given some of the Patriots' struggles defending the middle of the field lately, they don't have a lot of excuses left if they don't turn things around this week. Hopefully, getting tackle Terron Armstead back in the mix will help out for their sake.
Speaking of Hill, he's been a ghost without Tagovailoa out of the lineup, and his attitude and play against the Titans sum up everything I hate about him as a player. Watch how he somehow drops this backward pass from Tyler Huntley (a fumble) and the embarrassing lack of effort to get the ball back, even just to be sure, if nothing else.
Lazy, selfish, bad football, and a big shocker, he was crying on the sidelines, quite literally behind Mike McDaniel's back, and skipped out on post-game media availability. A banner night for a team captain if I say so myself. Also, I feel like this needs to be said, but the fact that an NFL locker room willingly voted a guy with his history of violence against women and kids as a captain two years straight is insanity.
Outside of getting Armstead back, Miami is also getting running back Raheem Mostert back in the mix with Devon Achane. At 31 Mostert had a career year in 2023, stamped by a monster 124-yard outing in Foxborough last September. He's a guy they definitely want to get going early on Sunday; last season, the Dolphins won all but twice in games where the veteran got at least 10 carries, while they lost the two games he was inactive and the two games he got seven and nine carries respectively. I'd also expect the Dolphins to get Achane involved in the passing game often on Sunday. He's been a highly dependable target out of the backfield, and the Fins have been pretty liberal with his presnap motion.
New England Patriots
Defense
There's some good news on the Patriots injury front, but even more bad news if you could believe it. Let's start with the good: second-year hybrid player Marte Mapu and free agent linebacker Sione Takitaki are back practicing. While Takitaki is almost certainly not playing this week, he's probably a week or two away at most, and that's huge. There weren't many better pass-defending linebackers in the NFL last year, and that would get Jahlani Tavai out of these coverage mismatches that have plagued him these last two weeks.
The bad news is that Kyle Dugger hasn't practiced once this week, meaning there's a 99.9% chance he's out, and Jabrill Peppers, who did practice on Friday, is also out of noon on Saturday. We'll get to Marte Mapu here in a little bit, but Patriots fans should expect to see a lot more of Jaylinn Hawkins and Dell Petus.
Edge containment is going to be something everyone is looking for from the jump on Sunday, and the big differences between Brock Purdy last week and Snoop Huntley this week are, firstly, they dialed up designed runs for him against Tennessee, and secondly, he's a better outright runner. This Patriots front cannot give up contain, specifically their edge rushers (more so Keion White and Josh Uche than Anfernee Jennings). Also, they need the interior guys not to get too aggressive because Huntley did pick up a 20-yard gain on a scramble last week when he saw a highway open up in the left-side A-gap.
I like the cornerback matchups for the Patriots this week, especially with the lack of a downfield passing offense for Miami right now, but if the Dolphins get anything going, it'll almost certainly be over the middle and inside the numbers. It's a rough spot for Marte Mapu in potentially his first game back, but if they play him in a Dugger-esqe role closer to the line or even in a STAR role, they need minimal mistakes out of him. Can't have what happened last year on that deep Hill TD in Miami to happen again.
Offense
I'll start this section off with a hot take: In my view, there's more than a coinflip chance that Drake Maye will replace Jacoby Brissett in this game should the first half go poorly enough (for better or for worse). We talked about it a bit in the 9ers game recap, but he definitely could've seen things downfield better, and at some point, for as bad as the offensive line is and will likely continue to be, things will reach a breaking point with the lack of a passing attack, regardless of if that's on Brissett or not. I'm fully expecting boobirds if that first offensive drive should end in a punt, warranted or not.
After another brutal fumble, Jerod Mayo told Rhamondre Stevenson that he'll be starting this week on the bench, which is more than deserved. The external message they'd be sending by not reducing his role for the time being wouldn't be great (in Boston especially), and it's not like Antonio Gibson is a liability.
Next up, what can Patriots fans expect this week's offensive line to look like with David Andrews done for the year and Caedan Wallace on IR for the time being? By the sounds of it, there's a real chance we get Michael Onwenu kicked back inside at right guard, which Scott Peters mentioned this week as being where he'd want him in a "perfect world," plus Michael Jordan on the other side with Sidy Sow banged up this week. Should Nick Leverett be inactive with an ankle injury, Bryan Hudson, a UDFA formerly with the Lions, would be your starting center, and then DeMontrey Jacobs (bless his soul for trying last week, but yeah, he wasn't good) and Vederian Lowe at the tackle spots.
As grim as things look, and yes, this is all-time bad in terms of where they are now with these injuries, the Patriots did get a surprisingly good bit of news this week, in that Cole Strange is officially in the process of getting back to action. After his Patellar Tendon injury last December vs. Kansas City, I thought the odds of him playing at all this year were pretty slim. If they could get him in the starting lineup, potentially even at center, after the London trip, that would be gigantic. I thought Strange was solid last year but was en route to end the year on a high before his ill-timed injury.
The lone gameplan-related note I'll bring up concerns the formerly mentioned Dolphins linebacker David Long, who's been brutal in coverage this year, and the Patriots should do precisely what Geno Smith, OC Ryan Grubb, and the Seahawks did (and to a lesser extent the Bills and Josh Allen) and go after him until they adjust. Here's a glimpse into some of the seven catches he was tagged as responsible for in Seattle.
I want to think they know Long's BBQ-chicken in coverage internally if Seattle and Buffalo did, and I'd be concerned if Alex Van Pelt didn't at least try to dial designed pass looks to go after Long early on, especially on third downs. This is the exact kind of guy you scheme Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas looks on inside the numbers, and especially if they can force him to work around traffic, he has not shot in coverage. Just watch him trip on this James Cook TD working to the boundary.
Betting Info
Points Spread: MIA -1 (-105) | NE +1 (-115)
Moneyline: MIA (-112) | NE (-108)
Over/Under: O 35.5 (-110) | U 35.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, October 4
To the best of my knowledge, this game opened at Patriots -1.5, but the Andrews injury and the number of question marks about who's in defensively change things, and understandably so. The flip side is that Miami hasn't covered once so far and hasn't led a game for a second, having beaten the Jags at the buzzer back in Week 1. While I don't believe it'll be as lopsided in weeks past (Miami has lost three straight by just about 20 points per on the dog), I would need to see the Fins cover before I'd feel good betting on them, even in a game like this. Patriots both ways and the under if I'm betting on this game.
Prediction
We will be there. You at home reading this may not watch this game; I'm sure there are even Dolphins fans who are fed up enough to skip this week, but I promise you, We. Will. Be. There.
This is a game by the sickos, for the sickos. That said, this will be one of the worst NFL games all season, I'd imagine, but I'm going to say the Patriots win for a few reasons. Mainly just because of the home-field advantage factor, but I don't know what to expect from Snoop Huntley after these last two weeks. If Miami is as bad on third downs offensively as they were on Monday night, they don't have a shot, even if it's death by a million field goals again.
Final Score: New England Patriots 19, Miami Dolphins 13
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