We have seen this kind of thing happen in the NFL year after year. There is always that one team or two that becomes the boogeyman of the NFL. The team that bursts out from under the bed to put the rest of the league on notice of a new contender to watch out for. Teams that were known for losing became very familiar with winning. You've seen it happen with the 1981 49ers, the 2001 Patriots, the 1996 Panthers, and the 1999 Colts. The latest example is the Houston Texans of last year after being projected to finish with the league's worst record. The Texans won 10 games, clinched a playoff spot, clinched the division, and made it to the second round of the playoffs with a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach.
The New York Giants did the same thing two seasons ago with then-rookie head coach Brian Daboll after experts predicted them to finish last in the NFC East. The Giants didn't win the NFC East but produced a 9-7-1 in 2022 after going 4-13 in 2021 and made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. People love a great surprise, and that's why people love the NFL. The NFL has plenty of surprises to showcase every season on any given Sunday. Why not expect yesterday's losers to become today's winners this season? Not an outright worst-to-first piece in a sense, here are four likely under .500 teams from last year to clinch a home playoff game in 2024.
Washington Commanders
The Biggest surprise in the NFL this season would be the Washington Commanders winning the NFC East over the more superior Cowboys and Eagles. They still haven't beaten the Giants except two out of nine times they played the Giants since expelling the Redskins name in 2020. Their offseason makeover could turn the tide for 2024, at least. Hiring Dan Quinn as their new head coach should bring the team back to respectability in the league. This is a man with an impressive coaching resume with his time developing the Seahawks' Legion of Boom defense, leading the Falcons to their second-ever Super Bowl while making them elite for a while, and transforming the Cowboys' defense from one of the worst to one of the best in the league overnight.
Another former head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, will be their new offensive coordinator and is expected to have an explosive offense that is proper for the talents of Heisman Trophy Winner Jayden Daniels and what used to be the Chargers' dynamic back Austin Ekeler. Along with wideouts "Scary" Terry Mclaurin to rely on heavily and former first-round pick from 2022 Jahan Dotson to step up more in this new air attack offense. The fantastic things that Kingsbury's offense helped Kyler Murray perform in Arizona makes you wonder how Jayden Daniels, another quarterback with a similar skillset, will perform in this same offense.
Their defense will also be improved dramatically with the additions of ex-Carolina tackling machine Frankie Luvu and future hall of famer Bobby Wagner to form what could become the best linebacker duo in the league for 2024. The new defensive coordinator, Joe Whitt Jr., has mostly worked as a defense backs coach during his 18 years in the league. During his coaching career, he helped develop the talents of notable defensive playmakers, including Charles Woodson, Deangelo Hall, A.J. Terrell, Trevon Diggs, Daron Bland, and Stephon Gilmore. His guidance and wisdom, once shared with names like Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor in his Seattle days, should help fix this Washington secondary, ranked the worst pass defense in the NFL last season.
Chicago Bears
The Bears realize they play in a division with three highly efficient offenses with lethal touchdown makers in Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota. They decided to get an offense to match their offenses by hiring Shane Waldron to be their offensive coordinator. His pass-oriented scheme, which helped Russell Wilson and Geno Smith have their best statistical years in Seattle, should also fit well with the number one pick, Caleb Williams. He can get the ball downfield to smooth route runners like D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. D'Andre Swift, a thousand-yard rusher from the Eagles should balance things out for the offense while sharing carries with Khalil Herbert, who can also be a home run hitter of a ball carrier.
They have the same defense that finished 2023 ranked number one in the NFL in defending the run. The same defense also led the NFL in interceptions last year. Last year's trade acquisitions of Pro Bowlers Terrell Edmunds and Montez Sweat impacted the Bears' defense in a way that made them an opportunistic one that feasted on takeaways and produced a nine-game stretch of 20 sacks since trading for Montez Sweat at midseason. Cornerback Jaylon Johnson earned his first all-pro selection and first Pro Bowl selection in 2023 and should only get better while Jaquan Brisker, Tyrique Stevenson, and Kyler Gordon follow his lead. Five-time Pro Bowler Kevin Byard should help this young secondary by sharing his wisdom and leadership. In 2024, The Chicago Bears have the offense and the defense to match up with the rest of the NFC North.
New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers is back, and the Jets still have one of the top three best defenses in the league, which may have gotten better. It depends on whether the tension between new member Hassan Reddick and the New York Jets front office will ease or not. If the tensions do cool down, the Jets will have themselves another supreme QB hunter alongside the Williams brothers and Jermaine Johnson, with new signee Javon Kinlaw from the NFC champion 49ers to take some attention away from All-Pro Quinnen Williams. Aaron Rodgers is back, but for how long? That question should no longer be a worry after signing Tryon Smith and Morgan Moses as the brick wall tackles to shield off rushers from Rodgers.
John Simpson from the Baltimore Ravens is a rock-solid guard with a meanness that makes him a great run-blocking partner for the more athletic Alijah Vera-Tucker to open more holes for the talented Breece Hall. Rookie Braelon Allen from Wisconsin is a power back with huge stature that should help him earn some playing time and eventually should make him the thunder to Breece Hall's lightning. Having a great defense is one thing; having a solid offense to complement that defense gives them more time to refresh on the sidelines by gaining first downs and scoring touchdowns.
The sense of a possible regression of the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins' ability to compete with the best teams in the league is still in question. The Jets are heavily seeking the opportunity to take the AFC East throne for the first time since 2002 and make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Two straight seasons of just seven wins with mediocre quarterback play shows much more about this team. They remain competitive and keep their heads above water through bad occurrences like Rodgers getting an Achilles injury just four plays into a new season. Any other team could've lost more than ten games or won no more than four games with the kind of quarterback play they had to deal with during the past two seasons. This is why the Jets also signed a veteran backup quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, for safekeeping. They were also able to split the season series with the Bills in each of the past two seasons as well. They are perhaps the only defense in the league that gets close to knowing how to shut down Josh Allen wholly and consistently.
Atlanta Falcons
Every football expert nationwide is dotting down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the clear-cut favorite to win the NFC South for the fourth straight year. However, the Atlanta Falcons have performed similar offseason moves to what the Buccaneers did in the summer of 2023. Sign a new quarterback (Kirk Cousins) and hire a new offensive coordinator (Zac Robinson). While hiring ex-Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris to be their head coach and trading for a prized pass rusher in Matthew Judon from the Patriots to strengthen the defense. Jessie Bates's playmaking sensibility arguably made him the best free agent signing of 2023 by intercepting six passes and forcing a career-high three fumbles. Drafting Michael Penix Jr. with their first-round pick may seem insane, but betting on a 36-year-old quarterback with only one career playoff win in three trips to the playoffs to bring you success is a gamble. That's why keeping a spare tire or two in the trunk is always good.
Like Dan Quinn in Washington, Raheem Morris will get another chance at head coaching a team. He had his first gig at the job with the Buccaneers from 2009-11, where he produced a 17-31 record. But did lead the Bucs to a 10-6 finish in 2010. The knowledge he gained with his first NFL coaching gig as a defensive assistant for the 2002 champion Buccaneers and used to generate a Super Winning defense for the Rams in 2021 as their defensive coordinator can help the Falcons keep improving their defense. Grabbing two-time Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons just hours after trading a third-round pick to the Patriots for Matthew Judon. Simmons, Bates, and Judon are three Pro Bowl talents that will impact the defense to become good enough to match up with the Buccaneers passing attack and the Saints receiving duo of Chris Olave and Rashad Shaheed. David Onyemata teaming up with Grady Jarrett on the defensive line should better help defend a run defense ranked 20th in the league in 2023.
Zac Robinson's job will be to improve the offense by adequately utilizing the young playmakers. His passing philosophy should feed Kyle Pitts the ball a lot, helping him get back to his 2021 form and help Drake London finally break into NFL stardom. Most of all, the multi-faceted Bijan Robinson is expected to be used like the 49ers use Christian McCaffrey. Whether it's Kirk Cousins or Michael Penix Jr. taking snaps, it's an offense that fits both of them, featuring capable playmakers and a superb o-line headed by Chris Lindstrom, another rising star on this team. The way Sean McVay's coaching disciples will guide this roster of overloaded talent won't make the possibility of the Falcons winning the NFC South this season a surprise.
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