The BMW Championship is the final stop before the Tour Championship next week, and the field will be cut down to 30 after Sunday evening's play finishes. Big names looking to point their way into the field at East Lake include Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Adam Scott, Max Homa, and Nick Dunlap, while players on the inside looking to secure their spots include major champions Justin Thomas, Jason Day, and Brian Harman. Denny McCarthy is the bubble man this week, and only the top 19 players are guaranteed to make the Tour Championship. For those players, this week is all about positioning yourself to make a run next week and give yourself the best starting position possible. Given the format for next week, the higher up in points you are going in, the better your position will be, so everybody has something to play for.
Everett Davison and Charlie Okray contributed to this Article
The Course
Castle Pines is a new course for all the players this week, and it appears that approach play and accuracy will be the two key factors to who will be in contention to win. The greens are just about average for what the players usually face, but most of the greens have multiple tiers that make them play significantly smaller than they actually are, so accuracy with the short and mid-irons will be paramount. Given that they are playing at high elevation, distance won't matter as much as it normally would, and the fairways feature small landing areas, so accurate players will have a better chance than normal. If longer players like Rory McIlroy can find the fairway, they will have a chance, but hitting fairways and hitting greens will be important. The winner could be five-under or 20-under this week, and neither would be particularly surprising, it will depend on how dire the consequences for missing the greens are. Regardless, finding greens and making putts will be the key to victory.
The Field
The 2024 BMW Championship brings the top 50 players in FedEx Cup points to Castle Pines Golf Club in Denver, CO. The top 30 players will advance to next week's final stop at the Tour Championship. With that in mind, I would watch players hovering around that top 30 line. Some notable names that must assemble a solid weekend to advance include Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Will Zalatoris, and Max Homa. If these guys want a chance to compete for the Tour Championship, they will have to jump some other notable players on that cutline.
I like all of their odds this weekend, given the added pressure. These final no-cut events have me targeting guys who can catch fire anytime. Without a cut, it gives the best ball strikers time to catch up to the top of the leaderboard. It’ll be hard to bet against Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, two of the hottest players in golf right now. Hideki Matsuyama was phenomenal last weekend despite a shaky end to his closing round. However, players like Nick Dunlap, Denny McCarthy, and Billy Horschel all finished in the top 10 last weekend, so it is anyone’s tournament. Castle Pines presents a lot of elevation and unorthodox greens, so whoever adjusts best to the altitude in the mountains this week will walk away as champion.
Everett’s Picks
Favorite: Xander Schauffele
Schauffele is the only player who can catch Scottie Scheffler before next week's Tour Championship, and given that the FedexCup No. 1 starts at 10-under and the No. 2 starts at 8-under in the tournament, it could end up having a major impact on the outlook of the season for those two, depending on how they play next week. Luckily for Schauffele, this is a new course for everybody, but it looks like one he should be able to thrive at. Schauffele is one of the best ball-strikers in the world, and given how small the greens are and how small the landing areas will be, approach play and accuracy will be at a premium, and the only player who is almost definitely better than Schauffele with irons is Collin Morikawa. Schauffele is one of the hottest players in the world right now, and going into next week, a win here would certainly help him keep the momentum going.
Favorite: Viktor Hovland
Hovland hasn't had a great season by his standards, but last week, he finished tied for second and had his first top-10 finish since the PGA Championship in May. He is peaking when it matters, and he has the chance to repeat his back-to-back wins to finish last year, culminating in a FedexCup victory. He sits at 16th in FedexCup points going into the tournament, and he is locked into the Tour Championship next week (the top 19 players cannot miss out, even if they finish last), so this week is all about building momentum for next week and trying to put himself into a good position for next week. At +1800, he is a good player for this week to take a flyer on.
Sleeper: Adam Scott
Scott sits at 41st this week, and to crack the top 30 and make it to East Lake, he needs to finish in a two-way tie for 20th at the very worst. If he finishes any worse than that, it will be impossible for him to make it, though he realistically needs to finish in the top 10. He hasn't won since the 2020 Genesis Invitational, but he has played well this year, and last month, he finished solo-second at the Scottish Open and would have won if Robert MacIntyre hadn't decided to turn into prime Tiger Woods in the final five holes, going four-under in the final five holes including a birdie on 18, which was the third-most difficult hole on the course. Scott has always been a player who thrives with his irons, and he should be able to be in contention on Sunday if he plays the way he has been. If Scott is in contention, he will know how to finish the job, and his experience should pay off.
Charlie's Picks
Favorite: Collin Morikawa
What’s not to love about Collin Morikawa? The dude is just a ball-striking savant. According to Data Golf’s model predictions, Morikawa has the third-best odds to win this weekend, behind Scheffler and Schauffele. He’s a master at gaining strokes with his iron play and approaches, and he will need it this week if he wants a chance to make a run. The driver didn’t serve him well last weekend, but his putter picked him up, gaining +0.88 strokes putting and +1.08 strokes around the green. Castle Pines calls for fairways and hitting greens, something Morikawa has made a staple of in his game. Give me Collin at +1400, all day. Morikawa has put together a very solid season with 7(!) top 10 finishes so far, two of them being top 5 finishes at this year's Masters and PGA Championship. He’s been knocking at the door all year but hasn’t found a victory yet; it’s got to be coming soon… right?
Favorite: Patrick Cantlay
“No hat Pat” has had a sneaky good run over the past few months. A 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open, followed by a Top 5 at the Travelers, put him back into solid form. He’s a guy that nobody really pays attention to and lacks that killer instinct to finish golf tournaments. I’m high on him this week because he performed well at the U.S. Open and Travelers; he had +1.26 and +1.44 strokes gained putting. If he can find that same confidence with the flat stick this weekend, I think Pat can undoubtedly make a run at some of the top dogs in the field. Cantlay finished T12th at last week's FedEx St Jude Championship, which shows me enough to bet on him this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that Cantlay has an excellent track record with Nicklaus courses. You can snag him at +1600 on DraftKings, and as much as I hate rooting for the guy, I’m sprinkling a little action on him this weekend.
Sleeper: Matt Fitzpatrick
It hasn’t been all that for Matt Fitzpatrick this year. That is, at least to the standards he’d like to be at. Only 3 top 10s on the year and underwhelming finishes have left him off the radar. Fitzy currently sits at 36th in FedEx Cup points, which puts him just a few spots outside the field to advance to next week's final Tour Championship. I want to think having a chance to compete there means a lot to Fitzy, so I’m expecting a strong performance from him this week. The good news is that he was very accurate and very strong with the putter at last week's St. Jude Championship. He’ll need those things if he wants to make a run this weekend. I’m riding with the Englishman at +6000.
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