The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles engaged in one of those rare in-season trades involving a pair of contenders, both hypothetically getting better. But how much better did Philly get versus Baltimore, and which team will be looking like winners out of this deal?
I'll cut to the chase: based on the current circumstances, Baltimore won this deal. They dealt veteran corner outfielder Austin Hays for reliever Seranthony Dominguez and outfielder Christian Pache.
We'll start with the basics for both sides; Hays is about to turn 30 next season and is a free agent after the 2026 season. He will be arbitration-eligible next season following his $6.3 million salary this year.
Dominguez is on a club-friendly extension with a 2025 club option, valued at around $3.63 million AAV. Pache is arbitration-eligible after this season and becomes a free agent after 2028. The Orioles could very well opt to non-tender Pache, depending on how the rest of this season goes. Let's get into the production and upside for all players involved, starting with Hays.
His 2023 got off to a solid start, with an All-Star selection and some elite first-half numbers, but he fell off an absolute cliff in the second half and has pretty much been a replacement player so far this season, with a 0.3 WAR and a 103 wRC+ while playing a borderline-average corner outfield, mostly in left.
His under-the-hood metrics don't inspire any confidence, with a low chase rate, whiff rate, and not a whole lot going on in the power department with meh barrel rates and exit velocity. On the bases, he's not one of the quicker guys in the league and has been a below-average baserunner according to his run value. So... not great.
Dominguez hasn't exactly been lighting it up, but in terms of value for the Orioles, who are in huge need of relief help, he'll be a great mid-to-high leverage reliever with a super high ceiling. His stuff is still elite, grading out super well on Stuff+ with his fastball and slider, both being over 20% better than league average.
Pache is mostly a fourth outfield, defensive ace-type of player who can fit in nicely for the rest of the year, filling in around the outfield and providing elite defense everywhere. He's been well above average in center and good in the corners, giving the O's an answer in case they need someone to roam that expansive left field or give Mullins a break.
The Orioles had no use for Hays moving forward with a seemingly endless supply of position player prospects coming up, and they got some great value for him for this season at the very least, with Dominguez potentially providing 1.5 seasons of decent value out of the 'pen and Pache bringing some solid bench depth.
Plus, Hays' salary was far too high to justify keeping him around. He was a non-tender candidate following this season, so instead the O's get to unload his remaining salary for this year and get some value out of it.
Philly has some excess bullpen help and Pache's bat makes him a tough play, but to give both him and Dominguez up for an average-at-best corner outfielder still seems incredibly silly. Maybe I'm wrong and Hays will find his early 2023 form, but he has yet to do so this season. We'll see.
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