Buccaneers football has finally arrived. After a strong finish last season, the Bucs look to repeat as division champions and make another run in the playoffs. During the offseason, the Bucs locked up their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, and their franchise wide receiver, Mike Evans. They had an excellent passing attack last season, but it came at the cost of losing their offensive coordinator. Liam Coen is running the ship this season for the Bucs offense. He comes from the University of Kentucky, and though he has NFL experience, he'll be calling plays for the first time. Luckily for the Buccaneers, their new offense will be breaking the ice with the worst defense from last year, the Washington Commanders.
The Commanders are coming off another putrid season that ended in the firing of head coach Ron Rivera. Replacing him will be the NFL coaching vet Dan Quinn. Quinn will undoubtedly improve his defense as he has shown to be an elite defensive coordinator for every team he's been on. Former Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury joins Quinn on the coaching staff. Kingsbury will have complete control of the offense and the joy of drawing up plays for his brand-new quarterback, Jayden Daniels. The Commanders selected the Heisman Trophy winner with the second overall pick in this year's draft. Daniels is a rookie but has five years of starting experience in college and is coming into the league at 23 years old. For the commanders to improve from last year, they'll need him to create some of the same explosive plays he did in college.
While the matchup between the Bucs and Commanders may initially seem one-sided, the NFL's unpredictability suggests otherwise. The offseason changes for both teams have set the stage for a potentially close game in week one. The high anticipation from both sides adds to the excitement, and I'm here to provide a detailed breakdown of what could be a thrilling battle.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September, 8th
Start Time: 4:25 ET
Location: Tampa, Florida
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
TV Info: Fox (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston on the call)
Uniform Info: White jersey, Grey pants
Washington Commanders Statistical Rankings (2023 Season)
Points Per Game: 19.4 Points (25th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 30.5 Points (32nd)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 312.8 Yards (24th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 219.1 Passing Yards (19th) and 93.6 Rushing Yards (26th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 388.9 Yards (32nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 262.2 Passing Yards (32nd) and 126.8 Rushing Yards (27th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 35.56% (24th) and 41.59% (26th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 63.27% (5th) and 56.67% (19th)
Penalties: 87 Penalties (7th)
Penalty Yardage: 701 Yards (7th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Washington Commanders: Alex Taylor, Norell Pollard, Jordan Magee, Taylor Stallworth
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chase Edmunds, Rakim Jarrett, Sua Opeta
Washington Commanders
Defense
The Commander's Defense is night and day different from where it was last year. In the middle of the 2023 season, Washington decided to trade away two of their biggest stars on defense. They started by trading their Pro Bowl defensive lineman Montez Sweat to the Chicago Bears for a second-round pick. Then, the next day, they swapped their former second-overall pick, Chase Young, for a third-round draft pick from the San Francisco 49ers. By trading these two pass rushers, the Commander's defense sank, ending up with the worst pass defense in the league.
Luckily, they didn't trade away their two interior defensive stars, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Both are savvy veterans who can make huge impacts on the interior. They even bolstered this interior attack by drafting Jer'Zhan Newton out of Illinois. Newton was a consensus All-American and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year last season. He has a massive upside and will immediately impact the Commanders this season.
As for the EDGE position they traded away last year, they've added it through free agency and even changed players' positions. During the offseason, they signed former top 5 pick Clelin Ferrell and former Cowboys standout Dorance Armstrong. Armstrong has had 16 sacks in the last two years and will be their primary pass rusher. Ferrell's tenure in the NFL has been underwhelming thus far, but he's still an experienced starter with great athleticism. The Commanders also moved Jamin Davis to the EDGE. Davis was a first-round pick in 2021 as a stand-up linebacker. He is a tall, rangy linebacker with excellent speed, running a blazing 4.47 40-yard dash. He was supposed to be a slam dunk pick but has struggled in his short NFL career. The Commanders hope that moving him to the EDGE will help revitalize his career. Moving Davis to the EDGE resembles what the Cowboys did with Micah Parsons. Parsons was taken in the same draft as Davis, and they both played the same position in college. However, Parsons was immediately moved to EDGE rusher and found success. Davis and Parsons are roughly the same height, weight, and speed, so this experiment could be worthwhile. Either way, Davis should be getting a lot of playing time, as the EDGE depth for the Commanders is very thin.
The secondary was also a weakness last season, and they'll need significant improvements out of second-year corner Emmanuel Forbes. Forbes was the Commander's first-round pick in 2023 and had a dreadful season. Forbes was a consensus All-American his final year in college, going up against SEC receivers. The main knock on Forbes, however, was his physicality. He is six feet tall but only weighs 166 pounds. Since entering the NFL, he's put on some much-needed weight but still has a way to go. Hopefully, Dan Quinn will be able to mold him into what Trevon Diggs has become for the Cowboys. Forbes reaching his potential will be crucial to the outcome of this game and the Commander's season.
Offense
The Washington Commanders Offense saw massive changes this offseason with the addition of reigning Heisman trophy winner Jayden Daniels. Daniels electrified defenses last year with his speed and accuracy. He's dangerous with his legs, rushing for over 1,100 yards and ten touchdowns. He's not one-dimensional, however, as he gathered 3,800 yards through the air and another 40 touchdowns. These stats were done very efficiently and without turning the ball over. Daniels only had four interceptions last year despite 327 attempts. To add to the insanity, he also completed over 72% of his passes. Daniels also will be paired up with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury is coming from USC, but before that was the Arizona Cardinals head coach for four seasons. He has an excellent mind for offensive schemes, and Jayden Daniels will be perfect for his offense.
Receiving handoffs from Daniels will be third-year running back Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson Jr. has rushed for over 700 yards in his first two years of the league. Last year, he was utilized heavily in the passing game, catching 36 balls for 368 yards and four touchdowns. With the departure of Antonio Gibson, these numbers should improve even more this season. Along with Robinson Jr., the Commanders also have veteran Austin Ekeler. Ekeler spent his entire career with the Chargers before signing with the Commanders this offseason. Ekeler is a significant receiving threat out of the backfield but has slowed significantly as age has caught up with him. He'll be a good veteran in the room and a potential leader for this young offense.
The star of the offense and Jayden Daniels' number-one target is Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has consistently been one of the better wide receivers in the league but has always lacked a solid quarterback. Despite the inconsistent quarterback play, McLaurin has had over 1,000 yards receiving the past four seasons and even a Pro Bowl nod in 2022. There's no telling what he can do with a good quarterback. Joining him in the receiver room will be rookie Luke McCaffrey. McCaffrey is the younger brother of 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey. Luke has had an exciting career so far. He began his collegiate journey at the University of Nebraska as a quarterback. He struggled his first two years and then transferred to Rice. When at Rice, McCaffrey still struggled to see the field until he decided to change to wide receiver in the offseason. In 2022 and 2023, while at receiver, McCaffrey broke out. In his first two years at the position, he gathered over 1,700 yards and 19 touchdowns. Thirteen of them came in his final year of college. McCaffrey is a reliable receiver with a massive ceiling, as he's still learning the position. See McCaffrey as the number one target for Daniels on third downs.
The trenches for the Commanders' offense are solid and improved during the offseason. Sam Cosmi is still at guard and has been an outstanding player for Washington in his short career. They also picked up Pro Bowl center Tyler Biadasz in the offseason. Biadasz will strengthen the interior even more and will be a great help for the rookie quarterback. The Commanders will be bringing in a new right tackle rookie, Brandon Coleman. Coleman was a second-team ALL-Big12 player at TCU, and the commanders are excited about what he has to offer. The rest of the line is filled with veteran players who were on the team last year and played well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one of the better defenses in the league last season. They have outstanding linemen who are only going to get better with experience. Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby were both rookies last year and have the potential to be superstars this year. The Bucs also still have Vita Vea to help plug things up and veteran Lavonte David to command the defense. With the Bucs keeping all these players intact from last season, I expect the front seven to be very good once again and potentially one of the best groups in the league. However, the main weakness for this Bucs team has to be the secondary.
The Bucs' corners struggled to guard the opposing team's wide receivers last year. They responded by trading away Carlton Davis but didn't replace him with any meaningful starter. Holding things down at CB1 is still Jamel Dean. Dean will have a massive responsibility this season as the Bucs' most reliable corner. He'll have a tough matchup this weekend as he'll likely be covering Terry McLaurin the whole game. On the other side of Dean is Zyon McCollum. McCollum will be playing much more this season, so the Bucs need him to improve. Last year, McCollum was one of the secondary players that struggled the most. He's still young, however, and possesses great size at 6'2. McCollum is entering his third year in the league, and this will be a make-it-or-break-it year for him. Lucky for McCollum, he'll have two incredible safeties behind him.
Coming back at safety is First Team All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr. Winfield broke out last season as one of if not the best safety in the league. He had 122 tackles, six forced fumbles, and three interceptions. The Bucs locked him up in the offseason by signing him to a four-year deal worth $84.1 million. Playing the other safety spot is Jordan Whitehead. Whitehead returns to the Bucs after spending the previous two seasons for the Jets. Whitehead will come in with knowledge of the defense and be part of one of the best safety duos in the NFL.
Offense
The Buccaneers had an explosive high-passing attack last season but struggled in the run game. This will most likely change this season as the Bucs have a new offensive coordinator after Dave Canales left to be the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. I still expect the Bucs to heavily favor the pass with weapons like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, I think a surprise player to watch this season will be rookie Jalen McMillan. McMillan comes from Washington, where he was part of the best passing offense in the country. McMillan has impressed a lot so far in camp and has already won over the trust of Baker Mayfield. McMillan won't receive the production and playing time as Godwin and Evans, but I look forward to seeing him get some favorable matchups as the third or fourth wide receiver.
The running game struggled last year as they finished 31st in rushing yards. It's a very concerning stat, but I think that may be due to the offense they ran. Former offensive coordinator Dave Canales ran a heavy pass offense and hardly utilized the run game. However, it did not go well whenever they did run the ball. Running back Rachaad White had less than four yards per attempt last season. Though the offense still found success despite the lack of a running game, it's still crucial that they improve. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, will positively change the running game. Coen ran the ball well last year at Kentucky, mainly using a zone rushing attack. This style of running will favor Bucs rookie running back Bucky Irving. Iriving was the Bucs' fourth-round choice, and he has the skill sets Liam Coen wants in his running backs. Combining his skills with his familiarity with a zone-rushing offense will potentially make for a great rookie year for Irving.
The offensive line will be a significant advantage for the Bucs. They welcome back their two star tackles, Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke. They have both proven to be at the top of the league at their positions and will create an excellent pocket for Mayfield, especially against a mediocre pass rush like the Commanders have. I expect the Bucs' offensive line to be a significant strength, especially with the addition of center Graham Barton. Barton was the Bucs' first-round choice in the draft this year, and he has a very high upside. He was regarded as one of the best center prospects and will immediately impact this Bucs team.
Betting Info
Points Spread: WAS +3.5 (-115) | TB -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: WAS (+154) | TB (-185)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-110) | U 42.5 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, September 5th
I would choose the Bucs to win and cover this game. I do not want to discredit the Commanders and what they have the potential to be this year. Expecting them to be good out of the gates is a lot, and they'll need time to find their groove. Another reason why I'm picking the Bucs to cover is that 3.5 points isn't a lot. Even if the Commanders challenge the Bucs, the Bucs could still cover the spread with a four-point victory. Obviously, this means I'll also be picking the Bucs money line. The odds for them winning are -105, so putting your money on the points spread would be much wiser.
I would also favor the under in this game. Even though the Commander's defense was the worst in the league last year, I think Dan Quinn has made enough adjustments to make them halt the Bucs' scoring attack. They'll also have an advantage in the run defense, as the Bucs were a terrible rushing team last year. The Bucs and Commanders are breaking out new offensive schemes, and they could both struggle the first few drives. Early on in the season, defenses are usually better as well. I could see each team only scoring about two touchdowns and then tack in a couple of field goals.
Prediction:
The Bucs will have home-field advantage, and they'll be going up against a team with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback. Those three things heavily favor the Bucs for me. The Bucs will also be returning many familiar faces used to playing together. That built-in trust and chemistry between teammates in week one is a huge advantage. I expect the Bucs to handle the Commanders and be in control for most of the game. It'll be a low-scoring defensive battle that ultimately has the reigning NFC South champions taking home the W.
Final Score: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 17
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