We’re already a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and we’re seeing some early divisional races, including in the NFC South. The Falcons are entering Week 2 of 3, where they’ll play each NFC South opponent, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are up next. Atlanta, of course, is coming off a very underwhelming win last week, where they failed to score an offensive touchdown but somehow still managed to pull out a victory. With a short turnaround, the Falcons have much to correct before the Bucs come to town for a Thursday Night Primetime Showdown.
The Bucs still boast arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. They’ve looked solid this year, aside from one embarrassing loss to the Denver Broncos a few weeks ago, in which they only managed to score 7 points. They’ve also put on stellar offensive performances under Baker Mayfield's leadership. Every year, it seems like many people (myself included) try to write the Bucs off, but they always find ways to win games and finish atop the NFC South. This Tampa Bay team is no joke—there are some weaknesses, which I’ll get into below, but Atlanta cannot afford a repeat of last week's performance, or they’ll find themselves back below the .500 mark.
Head to Head: 61 games, Bucs leads the series: 31-30
Last Mathcup: 12-10-2023 TB won: 29-25
Game Info
Date: Thursday, October 3rd
Start Time: 7:15CT/8:15ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: Prime Video (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit)
Falcons Uniform Info:
Buccaneers Team Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 24.3 (11th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.5 (5th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 319.0 Yards (16th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 223.0 Yards Per (9th) and 96.0 Yards per (25th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 335.3 (18th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 203.8 Yards Per (16th) and 131.5 (22nd)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 42.55% (11th) and 37.25% (18th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 60.00% (11th) and 47.06% (12th)
Penalties Offense/Defense: 4.8 per game (4th) and 5.3 per game (23rd)
Penalty Yardage Offense/Defense: 30.0 yards per game (1st) and 53.5 yards per game (18th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Thursday
Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey (DL), Luke Goedeke (OT), Antoine Winfield (S), Jalen McMillan (WR), Trey Palmer (WR).
Falcons: Troy Anderson (LB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
Diving into the Bucs’ defense first, it’s a group that has had its struggles but is overall a solid unit. They’ll be without star safety Antoine Winfield, who has only appeared in one game this year due to a foot injury. However, even without their top defensive back, this unit has given up just one touchdown pass, which came last week against the Eagles. Christian Izien (safety) and Zyon McCollum are the other two defensive backs to keep an eye on, as both have several passes defended, and each has an interception. In all, the Bucs do well against the pass, but defending the run is a different story.
When it comes to opponents running the ball on the Bucs’ defense, they rank 22nd in yards allowed and 29th in touchdowns given up (7 total). This could be a huge break for the Falcons, as they have struggled to run the ball efficiently the past couple of weeks. Both the Lions and Broncos were able to run for over 130 yards, and the Eagles averaged over 5 yards per carry. Before last week’s game against the Eagles, the Bucs were near the bottom of the league in sacks. However, they went on to sack Jalen Hurts six times, with five different players recording at least one sack. So, while this unit has had some issues, they made a quick turnaround in just a week.
Tampa Bay's defense still has playmakers like Lavonte David and Vita Vea, two names that could disrupt any chance the Falcons have of getting their offense back on track. However, I like the Falcons' chances of relying on the run in this matchup. They have the potential to implement a similar style to the Detroit Lions, effectively utilizing their two running backs. I think if the Falcons roll with that, the offense should have little to no issue getting into the endzone.
Offense
The Buccaneers’ offense, in my opinion, is one of the more underrated units in the league. Maybe that’s because they don’t run the ball a whole lot (which may change this year), but their passing attack is top-tier—no doubt about that. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both dangerous weapons for Baker Mayfield and have played a big role in revitalizing his career. Godwin has been targeted a bit more than Evans this year, with 322 yards compared to Evans’ 214, but both have 3 touchdowns. It’s going to be a tough test for the Falcons' secondary come Thursday night. The Bucs average about 32 passes per game, so the Falcons' defensive backs will have their hands full.
As for the Bucs’ rushing attack, they finished at the bottom of the league in previous years, but adding rookie running back Bucky Irving to the mix has at least helped them a bit. Rachaad White still gets most of the carries, but not by much—Irving has 35 carries, and White is at 41. This is a nice balance for Tampa's offense. Irving has the only rushing touchdown between the two, though Mayfield also has two. If the Bucs’ offense can develop even a decent rushing attack to complement their elite passing game, they could easily find themselves atop the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
Switching over to the good guys, the Falcons' defense was tested heavily last week. However, thanks to a strong performance from Troy Anderson and solid execution in high-leverage situations, they prevailed. Other than facing Mahomes in Week 3, this might be their toughest matchup in terms of defending the deep and intermediate passing game. Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons will need to be on high alert when taking on Godwin and Evans in the deeper half of the field. Most importantly, Atlanta must find a way to get to Mayfield and avoid giving him too much time to throw, which would allow his star receivers to run free.
The Falcons will have to go to battle without Anderson this week, as he’s dealing with a knee injury and has had limited rest. It’s not wise to push him and risk further injury. Anderson was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week for his work against the Saints. Rookie J.D. Bertrand will take his spot in his absence, and the coaching staff seems confident in his ability to go out and wreak havoc. With Nate Landman still on IR, the Falcons' inside linebacker depth will be tested, as Kaden Elliss is the only other ILB on the active roster—unless they elevate someone from the practice squad. It will be interesting to see how Jimmy Lake utilizes the Notre Dame alum and whether he decides to drop some of the outside linebackers into coverage.
Hopefully, there won’t be too many edge rushers dropping into coverage, as Atlanta is now officially dead last in the league in sacks. Lake seems to have taken a more conservative approach on defense, but there must be a better way to pressure the quarterback, whether by utilizing the secondary in blitz packages or trying out different personnel to rush the QB. Once again, the Falcons will likely face around 32–33 pass attempts from Mayfield, and they’ll need to find a way to take away the big plays and force Tampa Bay to rely on their ground game.
Offense
Last week's performance on offense was probably the second-worst showing they’ve had all year. Failing to get into the end zone simply cannot happen with the weapons this team has. Utilizing the run game has to be at the top of Zac Robinson's list this week, along with limiting screenplays on early downs. While his play-calling has shown overall improvements, it’s still inconsistent in certain areas, especially on first and second downs. With Cousins gaining more confidence in his chemistry with London and Mooney, this has to be the week the Falcons blend both the run and pass together to create a formula that the Bucs' defense can’t solve.
There has been a lot of talk around Falcons fandom about whether Tyler Allgeier should start seeing the bulk of the carries, as he’s been a dominant runner, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. I’m not entirely on board with this, as Bijan Robinson is an exceptional athlete, and when he hits an open hole, there’s no turning back. However, I do believe Robinson should consider similarly using them to how the Lions deploy Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Montgomery handles most of the short-yardage situations, while Gibbs gets a lot of the early-down carries, and both are effective in the passing game. I firmly believe there’s a way to get both running backs heavily involved, and Robinson should make this the offense's focal point—it would definitely take a lot of the pressure off Cousins.
Consistency and execution on third downs also have to be a key focus if the Falcons want to end up in the win column on Thursday evening. Being ranked 29th in the league on third down just isn’t going to cut it, no matter what division you’re in. Atlanta often finds themselves in third-and-long scenarios, and it’s not just Robinson’s play-calling on early downs that’s the problem—it’s the overall execution. The Falcons will need to find a way to gain momentum on early downs, avoid shooting themselves in the foot, and stay out of third-and-long situations.
Betting Info
Points Spread: TB +1.5 (-110) | ATL -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: TB (+108) | ATL (-126)
Over/Under: O 43.5 (-112) | U 42.5 (-108)
Lines via Fanduel as of Wednesday, October 2nd
Prediction
I didn’t get the score right in last week’s prediction, but I did get the result right with the game-winning kick by Younghoe Koo. Hopefully, if Atlanta pulls this one out, it won’t come down to that again. Unfortunately, after last week's performance, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Falcons being able to keep up with the high-powered Bucs offense. Covering Godwin and Evans is going to be an extremely tough test for the Falcons' secondary, and with Bertrand getting his first start at linebacker, this defense could be pushed to its limit. With the offense still struggling with inconsistency, I don’t see the Dirty Birds coming out on top.
Final Score: TB: 30, ATL: 24
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