It's a short week for the Buccaneers as they're back on the field this Thursday to face off against the Atlanta Falcons. This will be the Buc's first divisional matchup of the season, and it'll be in Atlanta. They'll play a different Falcons team from last year, as they've switched coaches and have a new quarterback. The Falcons sacked Arthur Smith at the end of last season and hired former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. A long time ago, Morris was the youngest head coach in the NFL for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Morris is a long-time Buccaneer, either as an assistant or head coach from 2002-2011. Though his tenure as the Buccaneers head coach was short and underwhelming, Morris is still considered one of the best defensive minds in the league. The new signal caller for the Falcons is former Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Cousins is playing in his thirteenth season in the league and has been a solid quarterback for several years. So far, the Falcons have been pretty mediocre, but breaking in a new head coach and quarterback takes time, and they could strike at any moment.
The Buccaneers are coming off a dominant win against a hobbled Eagles squad but have all the momentum in the world. The Bucs have three excellent wins, but their one loss still hovers over them. Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers fell to an inferior Broncos team that blew the breaks off the team in their stadium. That performance humbled them and showed that the Buccaneers can lose to anyone. This will be the Buc's second road game of the season after playing in Detroit three weeks ago. The Falcons fans will be piled to the top of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, cheering loudly. The road environment will be a factor in this one, and the Bucs will have to put all their hands on deck to win against this talented Atlanta team.
Game Info
Date: Thursday, October 3rd
Start Time: 8:15 P.M Eastern
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: Prime Video (Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the Call)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Uniform Info: White Jersey, White Pants
Atlanta Falcons Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 18.8 (22nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.3 (14th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 309.3 Yards Per (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 206.5 Yards Per (17th) and 102.8 Yards Per (22nd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 336.5 Yards Per (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 191 Yards Per (13th) and 145.5 (25th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 26.32% (29th) and 47.37% (27th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 40% (29th) and 46.67% (11th)
Penalties: 24 (11th)
Penalty Yardage: 194 Yards (11th)
Players Ruled Out Before Thursday
Falcons: Drew Dalman, Nate Landman, Milo Eifler, DeMarco Hellams, Robert Burns, Bralen Trice, Harrison Hand, Rondale Moore
Buccaneers: Calijah Kancey, Antoine Winfield Jr., Luke Goedeke, Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, SirVocea Dennis, Evan Deckers, Bryce Hall, Earnest Brown IV, Chase Edmonds, Rakim Jarett, Silas Dzansi, Sua Opeta
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
So far, Atlanta has been mediocre on defense. Through four games, the defense has been statistically worse than last year. That's not ideal for the Falcons, especially when they hired a defensive-minded head coach. One of their most concerning problems on defense is their inability to rush the passer. So far this season, the Falcons have a total of four sacks. Their atrocious sack number put them dead last in the league in total sacks. Their best pass rusher is free agent addition Matthew Judon. Judon has a miniscule 1.5 sacks so far this season. Judon used to be an elite pass rusher, but his age has slowed him down as he reaches his mid-30s. Tied with Judon is interior lineman Grady Jarrett. Jarrett also has 1.5 sacks and has been a long-time contributor for the Falcons for ten seasons. He hasn't made a Pro Bowl in four years but is still disruptive. He has seven QB hits this year and two tackles for loss.
By far, the Falcons star on defense is safety Jessie Bates. Bates was a Pro Bowler last season and was named second-team All-Pro. He's a ball hawk in the middle of the field and racked up six interceptions last season. He has had one this year, but many teams are afraid to throw his way. Bates is also a fantastic tackler. He led the team with 132 tackles last season and has had twenty-nine this season. Third-year linebacker Troy Andersen is the leader in tackles for the Falcons this season. Andersen was an athletic phenom coming out of Montana State. He is 6'4, 243 pounds, and runs a 4.42 forty-yard dash. While in college, Andersen played multiple positions, including quarterback, running back, fullback, and linebacker. He is unbelievably gifted and is finally showcasing that talent this season. He's in the top ten in total tackles, with forty-four, and already has an interception returned for a touchdown. His best game of the season came last week against the Saints, where Andersen had sixteen total tackles and a forty-seven-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Bucs will have to gameplan around him, and Rachaad White will be in for a tough matchup on Thursday.
Offense
The Falcons offense has been tricky to figure out for many years. On paper, they are star-studded with some of the best and youngest skill players in the league. Starting, they have a star running back in Bijan Robinson. Last year, as a rookie, Robinson totaled over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. Robinson is a do-it-all back and already one of the best backs in the league. Then the Falcons have two significant receiving threats: Drake London and Kyle Pitts. London is playing in his third season in the NFL and has racked up two back-to-back 850-plus-yard seasons. He stands at 6'4 and has outstanding jump ball skills. Kyle Pitts was considered one of the best tight-end prospects of all time coming out of Florida in 2021. Pitts possesses elite ball skills and great speed while also standing at 6'6. He had an outstanding rookie season, catching sixty-eight passes for over 1,000 yards. His previous two seasons were underwhelming, however. He only had 350 receiving yards in his sophomore season and 667 yards in his last season. Pitts has also struggled to find the endzone, only scoring six total touchdowns in his first three years. His lack of production was blamed on the coaching scheme, and the quarterback's throwing Pitts passes. Pitts has a proven QB and brand new coaches this year, but the results are similar. In the season's first four games, Pitts has eight catches for 105 yards and one touchdown.
The veteran Kirk Cousins is the new quarterback supplying the ball to the talented young playmakers. Cousins is a four-time Pro Bowler who has passed for over 40,000 yards in the NFL. The Falcons signed him to a massive contract in the offseason in a desperate move to get an established quarterback. So far, Kirk has been pretty mediocre. He only has four touchdown passes and has thrown four interceptions. The Falcons offense is at the bottom ten in the league for points per game and sits at a mediocre 2-2. Cousin's struggles out of the gate may be due to the injury he faced last season. In week eight of the 2023 NFL season, Cousins went down with a torn Achilles and missed the remainder. An Achilles injury is one of the toughest to return from, especially at thirty-six years old. Thankfully, Kirk was never a dual threat, so his play style remains mostly the same. It also takes time to adjust to a new team and offense. I think the Falcons will figure it out offensively, and a lot of it will be due to the success of Kirk Cousins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
Outside of the Denver game in week three, the Buccaneers defense has been stout. They're in the top ten in points allowed, allowing under twenty, and in the top five in opponent passer rating. They've stepped up huge in big moments and terrorized opposing quarterbacks not named Bo Nix all season. It all starts up front with Vita Vea. Vea has been consistent throughout his career in his ability. He creates havoc on the offensive line whenever he's on the field. His size and strength overwhelm guards and centers, ending plays before they begin. Unfortunately, the Buccaneer's interior is still missing Calijah Kancey. Kancey was their first-round draft pick a season ago but has yet to make his sophomore debut. For now, the Bucs will continue to rely on Vita Vea and other depth pieces like Logan Hall and Ben Stille. On the edge, Yaya Diaby is having another fantastic year. He's fourth in the entire NFL for QB pressures with twenty-two. He is among the most productive pass rushers in the league and will undoubtedly be an issue for the Falcons.
The Buccaneers will still be down their star safety, Antoine Winfield Jr, as he still suffers from an injury in the season's first game. Luckily for the Bucs, they have a deep safety room. Jordan Whitehead has had a solid start to the season; he is second on the team in total tackles. Alongside Whitehead is rookie Tykee Smith. Smith has been impressive so far in his first NFL season. He has shown off his feistiness in the run game and influenced the passing game with his athleticism. He's a versatile defender who can play corner and safety and has done both in Tampa.
The leader of the defense is still Lavonte David. David just eclipsed 1,500 career tackles as a Buccaneer, joining Derrick Brooks as the only other Bucs to do so. David had a dominant day last Sunday, racking up two sacks and one forced fumble. He's still as quick as when he came out of Nebraska thirteen years ago. Then, on the outside corners, Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum have had great starts to the year. McCollum has improved immensely since his rookie year. They'll have a challenging task guarding Drake London, which is a matchup nightmare for many NFL corners this week.
Offense
On offense, the Bucs have looked unstoppable at times. They have one of the best passing attacks in the game, ranking in the top ten in passing yards. They've also improved in the rushing attack from a season ago. Last year, they were dead last in rushing yards per game, and though they aren't anywhere close to the top, they are several spots higher in the rankings this year. The offense is run through Baker Mayfield, who is at the top of the league in multiple passing categories. He is second in passing touchdowns and sixth in passing yards. Mayfield has also been incredibly efficient. He has completed over 70% of his passes and has only thrown two interceptions this season. His overall quarterback rating for the season is a career-high 106.9, which is fourth-best in the NFL. Mayfield went ballistic last weekend, throwing the ball forty-seven times for nearly 350 yards and three total touchdowns. Mayfield is a dangerous quarterback and has MVP hopes this season.
The rushing attack isn't near dangerous, but it's improving weekly. The Bucs continue enhancing the workload for their rookie running back, Bucky Irving. Irving scored his first career touchdown on Sunday. The Bucs are still giving most running back snaps to Rachaad White, but he has improved. Against the Eagles, White had a season-high of forty-nine yards and an average of 4.9 yards per carry. The Bucs would benefit massively if Irving and White could have that level of efficiency against the Falcons. They may have to rely on them more due to the injuries in the receiver room. Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have both been ruled out for the game on Thursday, so look to see more carries from Irving, White, and even Baker Mayfield. The Bucs offense is humming right now, and the Falcons may be in serious trouble in this game.
Betting Info
Points Spread: TB -1.5 (-110) | ATL +1.5 (-110)
Money Line: TB (+105) | ATL (-125)
Over/Under: O 44 (-110) | U 44 (-110)
Lines Via DraftKings as of Wednesday, October 2nd
The line is closer than I expected for this game. The Falcons have the advantage of playing at home and have lots of talent surrounding them, but I feel like the Bucs are the easy pick. -1.5 is a pick 'em, and I'm picking the Bucs to win this game. The Falcons lack an effective pass rush and have struggled to protect Kirk Cousins in the pocket. Football games are won and lost in the trenches, and the Bucs are better than the Falcons in both categories. Since I'm picking the Bucs to cover -1.5, I'm picking them to win the game outright on the money line.
Despite the Bucs being -1.5, the money line favors the Falcons. The Bucs have +105 odds for the money line, which is a great value and is also why I'm picking them. As for the over/under, I would take the under 44 points. The Bucs were great last week on offense, but they are down a few pieces. They'll be down their right tackle, Luke Goedeke, again. Goedeke has proven to be a crucial player for them, as Baker Mayfield has been sacked many times in his absence. They'll also be down wide receivers Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan. Combine this with the curse of Thursday night football being snooze fests, and you have the perfect storm for an under.
Prediction
I predict the Bucs will win this game, but the Falcons will keep it close. The Falcons will be able to pressure Mayfield, but they won't do it consistently enough. On the other end, the Bucs will be pressuring Cousins all night. I expect Diaby and Vea to have big nights. The Bucs will improve to 4-1 and keep their spot at the top of the NFC South division.
Final Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Atlanta Falcons 17
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