Heading towards the end of September, FSU is still winless. Things won't get easier either, as the 'Noles will face another undefeated team—the California Golden Bears. Cal is hot right now after a dominant win against San Diego State last week and a win at Auburn the week before. This week will be Cal's first conference game. Last year, the PAC-12 conference imploded when ten of its twelve teams departed. Cal was one of those ten teams, and they landed on the other side of the country in the ACC. This Saturday, they'll make the over 2,200-mile trip to play an in-conference game. They hope to extend their win streak by taking advantage of a struggling FSU. Cal hasn't had a winning season in five years and hasn't won ten games in a season in almost twenty. So far, the Golden Bears have a solid chance to add themselves to the Cal history books as they've started the season off strong. Will the hungry California Golden Bears continue their win streak this weekend? Or will FSU finally wake up and get their first win of the season? I'll break down the two teams and tell you what I think.
Game Info
Date: Saturday, September 21st
Start Time: 7 P.M Eastern
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Stadium: Doak Campbell Stadium
TV Info: ESPN 2 (Roy Philpott and Sam Acho on the call)
California Golden Bears Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 26.0 (61st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 12.0 (20th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 402.5 Yards (46th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 215.5 Yards Per (69th) and 187.0 Yards Per (37th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 281 Yard Per (25th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 165.5 Yards Per (31st) and 115.5 Yards Per (44th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 50% (17th) and 38.46% (69th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 75% (98th) and 100% (88th)
Penalties: 35 (129th)
Penalty Yardage: 285 yards (126th)
Injury Report
California: Jaydn Ott (Questionable), Tobias Merriweather (Out), Kyion Grayes (Out), Sioape Vatikani (Questionable), Will McDonald (Questionable), Justin Williams-Thomas (Questionable)
FSU: Jaylin Lucas (Out), Destyn Hill (Out), Darius Washington (Questionable), Jeremiah Byers (Questionable), Shawn Murphy (Questionable), Omar Graham (Questionable)
California Golden Bears
Defense
The Cal defense is no slouch, and so far this season, it is a top-25 group in the country. They're only allowing twelve points per game and have held offenses to 281 yards per game. They have also been lethal in the secondary, forcing nine interceptions in only three games. Four come from one player, Nohl Williams, who leads the country in interceptions. FSU must keep a close eye on where he's lined up because quarterbacks have a 12.3 passer rating when targeting him this year. Williams will likely be lined up against Malik Benson. Cal also has a 2023 PAC-12 honorable mention, Craig Woodson. He's the second corner on this team and will be another tough matchup for the FSU's wide receivers.
The linebackers for Cal are very intriguing to me. Starting, they have reigning PAC-12 freshman defensive player of the year, Cade Ulave. Ulave has had two tackles for loss this season, including an interception and two pass deflections. He's a young but dangerous linebacker for Cal. Alongside him is senior transfer Teddye Buchanan. Buchanan has blasted onto the scene this year after spending the last four years at UC-Davis. So far, he's racked up thirty-one tackles, four tackles for loss, two and a half sacks, and one forced fumble. He's been a critical pick-up for Cal this offseason and looks to add to his exceptional season this Saturday. The Seminoles aren't a complicated offense to stop, so I think Cal will be in for an easy day on Saturday night.
Offense
The Cal offense has a star player in running back Jaydn Ott. Ott was first team all PAC-12 last season after rushing for 1,300 yards and fourteen touchdowns. He is an explosive play waiting to happen, as he's constantly breaking off big runs. FSU must prioritize him this weekend because he alone can win Cal the game. Luckily for the FSU defense, Ott seems to be banged up. He's only played in two games this season and is questionable to play in this one. I believe he will play, but he definitely won't be 100%. Backing up Ott is sophomore Jaivian Thomas. Thomas has done a splendid job in relief for Ott. He's rushed for 241 yards in three games, averaging an absurd 7.8 yards per carry. Like Ott, Thomas can run to the house anytime, and they'll have to stack the box to contain him.
Leading the California offense is sophomore Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza has been solid so far for Cal this season. He's averaging just under 200 yards per game and has thrown five touchdowns. Cal is a run-first team, but they trust Mendoza to make a play when his number is called. Mendoza beat out transfer Chandler Rogers in camp this offseason. This was a surprising outcome because Rogers is a senior who has passed for over 7,000 yards in his career. Cal trusts Mendoza, and he's proven to be an efficient leader for this offense. This season, the leading wide receiver for the Golden Bears is redshirt freshman Nyziah Hunter. Hunter has exploded onto the scene this season and has racked up twelve catches for 143 yards and an incredible four touchdowns. He is an outstanding route runner and has good size at 6'2. The remaining receiving group is filled with transfers or inexperienced wide receivers. FSU should match up pretty well against these wideouts.
Florida State Seminoles
Defense
The defense improved a lot against Memphis. The defensive line looked pretty good for the first time all year, and the defense made some key stops. They're far from perfect, but they looked much more competent. The offense gave them no favors by turning the ball over inside the red zone on the second play of the game. However, despite the disadvantage, the FSU defense stuffed Memphis and held them to only three points. The linebackers have been a struggle on this team, and it doesn't help that half of them are also hurt. However, there is one bright spot in the linebacker room. True Sophmore Justin Cryer had an outstanding game against Memphis. Cryer had five tackles but also added an exceptional interception. He's been the best linebacker so far this year, and if he can continue to develop, he'll be an intriguing player to watch going forward.
Last week, we finally saw the interior defensive line make some plays, including the senior captain, Joshua Farmer. Farmer racked up five tackles, including 2.5 for loss and one sack. He's the leader of this defense, and that's the kind of stat line FSU expects from him weekly. The same could be said for edge rusher Patrick Payton. He's also been quiet this year but stepped up with a sack this week. He also put constant pressure on the Memphis quarterback. The pass coverage from the secondary was also satisfactory. The defensive backs played as they should've against a less talented group of wideouts. The FSU defense will have to play at least as well as they did last week to have a chance this week. However, even if they can replicate their performance, that probably won't be enough if the FSU offense is still as putrid as they have been all year.
Offense
The best way to watch this offense is either with your eyes closed or not at all. That's how bad it is and will continue if no changes are made. Luckily, FSU's offensive coordinator, Alex Atkins, will be back on the sidelines after being suspended for the first three games due to recruiting violations. We'll see if he can make any meaningful difference, but it can't get any worse. Atkins is also the offensive line coach and has his work put out for him with how this line has performed thus far. They have been utterly incompetent at blocking anything, especially in the run game. It also doesn't help that they've been down their starting tackles. I don't know what's happening with this offensive line, but hopefully, Atkins's presence on the sideline this Saturday will be helpful.
As of Thursday night, FSU's starting quarterback is still DJ Uiagalelei. Norvell has even told the media that he likes how DJ has prepared and says he gives them the best chance. This is very discouraging for many fans of the program, as anyone who has watched the last three games agrees that there needs to be a change. At this point, I don't know if we'll ever see anyone other than DJ under center. It's been evident to everyone that the way this offense is performing right now is unacceptable and that you should at least try out another quarterback. The backup, Brock Glenn, has a good amount of athleticism that could maybe spark the horrific run game. If FSU is even a little bit mediocre at running the football, it would do this offense wonders. Going into Saturday night, I expect another horror show, but I'm hoping for the best.
Betting Info
Points Spread: FSU -2.5 (-115) | Cal +2.5 (-105)
Money Line: FSU (-135) | Cal (+114)
Over/Under: O 44.5 (-108) | U 44.5 (-112)
Lines Via DraftKings as of Thursday, September 19th
Once again, I would take the opposing team in every category. It's crazy to me that FSU is favored in this game, and I would take Cal +2.5 in a heartbeat. I would also be very inclined to take Cal in the money line. As for the over/under, I'm picking the under because of how awful this FSU offense is. I expect another sloppy game that barely gets into the twenties. If you want to make real money, you can parlay all three of those picks into one bet and have a nice payday.
Prediction
Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me. Fool me three times, and I need to get my head checked out because something is not right up there. Florida State has fooled me three times into picking them to win in the past three weeks. I will not be fooled again. Florida State is atrocious right now. The defense has stepped up recently and has even looked competent. The offense is on the other end of the spectrum, and there's no way you can win a football game if you can't score. Unless there are some monumental changes in this offense on Saturday, there is no way I am picking FSU to beat anyone. Let alone an undefeated Power Four school, even if it is Cal-Berkley. FSU takes another tough loss on Saturday as things continue to implode in Tallahassee.
Final Score: California Golden Bears 23, Florida State Seminoles 13
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