In 2023, the Miami Dolphins enjoyed their most successful season since 2008, going 11-6. That 11-6 regular season record included a 5-1 start and a 70-point explosion against the Broncos. Tyreek Hill, Tua, and a two-headed rushing monster in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane led the team's high-powered offense. Many people began viewing the Dolphins as legitimate contenders, but one question remained: Can they do it in the big games?
The Dolphins' losses came against the Bills twice, as did the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans on Monday Night Football. Notice anything? Except for the Titans, all these teams won eleven or more games. Even the Titans game was an opportunity to clinch the division, yet the Dolphins faltered. This continued into the playoffs with a nasty 26-7 loss to Kansas City on a night when Arrowhead Stadium looked more like a frozen tundra than a football field.
Had the Dolphins won either the game against the Titans or the final game of the regular season against the Bills, they would have been the second seed and had home-field advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs. This could have been a significant turning point for the team. Instead, the Dolphins look back at the 2023 season as a good season that could've been great, understanding the missed opportunities and learning from them.
It's time to build on last season's success and push to be one of the AFC's top seeds. Tyreek Hill is now 30, and Tua is entering what should be his peak years. A player like Tyreek, whose primary attribute is his freakish speed, will likely not age as gracefully as some other receivers, so the Dolphins should enjoy his prime while they can. Luckily, Jaylen Waddle is one of the top #2 receivers in the NFL and can be a WR1. Add in the running game with Achane and Mostert, and the offense will be one of the best in the NFL again.
The more significant questions come on defense. The defense was hit-and-miss last season, but having Jalen Ramsey and Jaelan Phillips healthy for an entire season will provide a massive boost. The loss of Christian Wilkins on the defensive line is colossal, but the Dolphins have gone out and tried to replace him in numbers this offseason. On top of the additions to the defensive line, Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer were signed to complete what looks to be one of the top secondaries in the league. But have the Dolphins strengthened enough with so many other teams in the AFC improving and getting healthy?
2024 Miami Dolphins
Coaching Staff and Front Office Personnel
- Head Coach: Mike McDaniel (Third year as Dolphins Head Coach)
- Offensive Coordinator: Frank Smith (Third year as Offensive Coordinator)
- Defensive Coordinator: Anthony Weaver (First year as Defensive Coordinator)
- Special Teams Coordinator: Danny Crossman (Third year as Special Teams Coordinator)
- Notable Assistant Coaches: Butch Barry (Offensive Line Coach), Darrell Bevell (Quarterback Coach), Eric Studesville (Assistant Head Coach and Running Back Coach), Wes Welker (Wide Receiver Coach), Joe Barry (Linebacker Coach and Run Game Coordinator), Austin Clark (Defensive Line Coach), Ryan Crow (Outside Linebackers Coach), Brian Duker (Pass Game Coordinator and Secondary Coach),
- General Manager: Chris Grier (Ninth year as General Manager)
Notable Additions
- Free Agency: Jordan Poyer (S, Bills), Kendall Fuller (CB, Commanders), Jonnu Smith (TE, Falcons), Siran Neal (CB, Bills), Anthony Walker Jr. (LB, Browns), Jordyn Brooks (LB, Seahawks), Benito Jones (DT, Cowboys), Calais Campbell (DT, Falcons) Odell Beckham Jr, (WR, Ravens)
- Draft: Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State), Patrick Paul (OT, Houston), Jaylen Wright (RB, Tennessee), Mohamed Kamara (EDGE, Colorado State), Malik Washington (WR, Virginia), Patrick McMorris (S, Cal)
- Trades: N/A
Notable Subtractions
- Free Agency: Christian Wilkins (DT, Raiders), Robert Hunt (G, Panthers), Brandon Jones (S, Broncos), Jerome Baker (LB, Seahawks), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (WR, Saints), Andrew Van Ginkel (LB, Vikings),
Raekwon Davis (DT, Colts), Connor Williams (C, Seahawks)
- Trades: N/A
- Released: CB Xavien Howard
2023 Dolphins Offensive Team Ranks
- 27.9 Points Per Game (3rd)
- 393.7 Yards Per Game (3rd)
- 261.2 Passing Yards Per Game, 132.4 Rushing Yards Per Game (2nd and 7th)
- 40.19% Third Down Conversion Rate (12th)
- 65.52 Red Zone TD Percentage (3rd)
- 25 Turnovers (12th)
2023 Dolphins Defensive Team Ranks
-23.2 Points Allowed Per Game (22nd)
-323.3 Yards Allowed Per Game (11th)
-223.5 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game, 99.8 Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (15th and 7th)
-38.96% Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed (20th)
-61.67% Red Zone Conversion Rate Allowed (26th)
-29 Takeaways (T-9th)
Tua Much Pressure?
Tua Tagovailoa got paid handsomely this offseason. He signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension that runs until 2028. Tua undeniably had a stellar season in 2023, leading the NFL in passing yards with 4,624 and throwing 29 touchdowns while playing every game for the first time in his career. He still has to work on his turnovers—14 interceptions and five fumbles lost are far from ideal—but it was still the best season of his career.
Tua remains criticized by the media for several reasons. The first is rather apparent: his arm strength is average at best. He compensates for his lack of arm strength with his accuracy, but it is still a factor that limits him. Other Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Matt Stafford, and Justin Herbert can use their arm talent to bail them out of sticky situations, and Tua just wasn't blessed with the same arm. However, Tua has a rapid release, which meshes very well with the speedsters in the offense, such as Hill and Waddle.
The second reason Tua receives criticism is because some people view him as a product of the weapons and scheme he has around him. Having Tyreek Hill is a blessing that any Quarterback would love, but how many quarterbacks have succeeded without a top wide receiver? McDaniel's offense has unquestionably helped Tua, but to exclusively call him a product of the system is unfair. With all that said, Tua is a good quarterback, but how good is the question? I think it's time for us to find out finally.
Can't Handle the Cold?
The Miami Dolphins play their home football in Miami Gardens, Florida, where temperatures rarely, if ever, dip below 55 degrees, even in the middle of December. Of course, this isn't their fault, but it seems to affect them when they play in colder weather. The Dolphins have been, quite frankly, abysmal when they play in the cold. They're 2-19 in their last 21 games where the kickoff temperature has been below 50 degrees, and 0-10 in their previous ten games below 40 degrees at kickoff.
The weather becomes an issue late in the season, especially in the playoffs when the Dolphins often travel north and play in the cold. This season, the Dolphins must play the Packers at Lambeau at the end of November and the Browns in Cleveland in late December. They're also in a division that forces them to travel to Buffalo, New York, and Foxborough. Now, there is a way for the Dolphins to mitigate this issue, for the playoffs at least, and that would be to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That would mean the path to the Super Bowl would come through Miami, with no need to worry about freezing temperatures.
Securing the top seed is much easier said than done, but it is the only realistic way to avoid playing in the cold. The Dolphins will almost inevitably have to play better in the cold if they're going to be serious Super Bowl contenders. It's an awkward problem, considering it has very little to do with actually playing football and more so with the fact that they're not accustomed to playing in these conditions. Like it or not, it is a severe issue worth mentioning.
What Will the Backfield Split Look Like?
Last season, Raheem Mostert surprised everybody by leading the league with 18 rushing touchdowns while playing at least 15 games for only the third time in his career. But Mostert is now 32, and De'Von Achane impressed mightily when he played last season. Achane averaged a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. 7.8 yards per carry is unsustainable for an entire season, but it is a wonder just how efficient Achane could be if he fully assumed lead-back duties.
Mostert, being a bigger back than Achane, will likely retain most of the goal line work, but Achane's raw speed and big play ability force opposing defenses to be on their toes constantly. The Dolphins also used a 4th round pick on Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee, which suggests they're preparing for life after Mostert. Wright has sub-4.4 speed while being the heaviest back of the three, so he could provide a different dimension to the run game.
Mostert and Achane remain the clear one and two, but who is who? The most likely scenario is that Mostert gets the early bulk of carries, but Achane works his way up and has more by the end of the season, barring injuries. That being said, considering how Mostert performed last season, he could spring another surprise. Achane missed about half the season through injury last season, and Mostert has struggled with injuries in the past, so Wright could play a more prominent role than expected.
A Wilkins Sized Gap to be Filled
Christian Wilkins was drafted by the Dolphins in 2019 and was a significant contributor his entire time with the team. Always adept at stopping the run, Wilkins showed off the pass-rushing side of his game this past season, recording a career-high nine sacks and 61 pressures. Unfortunately, the Dolphins had no cap room to retain him and were forced to let him walk in free agency. This raises concerns with the defense line, but they've done their best to replace him. Benito Jones and veteran Calais Campbell have been brought in, but their roles aren't secure.
Jones has been announced as the starter, but Brandon Pili and Da'Shawn Hand are waiting in the wings. The other concerns are with the edge rushers, as Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are both coming off significant injuries. Both are excellent players; Phillips, especially, was having a breakout season in 2023 before he went down. However, you can never know how players will recover from injuries of this magnitude. An ACL Tear for Chubb and an Achilles tear for Phillips are two of the worst injuries a professional athlete can sustain.
Luckily, first-round pick Chop Robinson is primed and ready to go, but he is a raw prospect and will need to be bedded in slowly. Chubb's absence at the start of the season will give Robinson some much-needed reps, but the Phins will hope that Chubb can return sooner rather than later.
Uncertainty on the O-Line
Often the unsung heroes of any top NFL contender, the offensive line shows the less glorious but necessary side of football. The offensive line plays a massive role, especially in a team with an undersized and fragile quarterback. The Phins' offensive line is all over the place at the moment, with surprise cuts like Jack Driscoll and players being moved around from center to guard and vice versa.
Aaron Brewer has been named the starting center, and Liam Echenburg the starting right guard, but he filled in at center in Brewer's absence. Isaiah Wynn remains on the PUP list, so Robert Jones will be the starting left guard after the departure of Robert Hunt, who signed for the Carolina Panthers.
The coaching staff has remained positive when asked about the O-line, but it remains clear that there is instability regarding who will start and what role they will play. The Dolphins were an excellent run-blocking team last year, and this year, they'll hope that the new-look O-line can establish itself in the pass-blocking game.
The Bottom Line
The Dolphins have a supremely talented roster capable of making a deep run in the AFC, but they go into this season with more questions than last. The AFC is improving overall, but the Dolphins' schedule looks more favorable than last year's. If they stay healthy, they can win the AFC East. Vegas has the AFC East as the toughest division to call, and it's hard to argue with that. The Jets are the favorites to win the division, but they are only sitting at +160, with the Bills at +195 and the Dolphins at +210.
If Tua decreases his turnovers, the defense stays healthy, and the offense is as explosive as we expect it to be, look out for the Dolphins. The team has a high ceiling but an equally low floor if certain things don't go their way, so I have them making the playoffs but not winning the division.
Defined Dolphins Strengths
- Mike McDaniel
- High-powered offense
- Starters in the Secondary
- Talent at EDGE
Defined Dolphins Weaknesses
- Performances in the biggest games
- Questions surrounding O-Line
- Lack of depth on defense
- Health issues all across the board
Dolphins Seasonal Outlook
Record Ceiling: 12-5
Record Floor: 7-10
AFC East Finishing Position Prediction: 2nd
Team MVP: Tyreek Hill
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Really well written! Looking forward to reading more articles from Mr. Souza in the future.