211 days after the San Francisco 49ers suffered one of the most heartbreaking losses in franchise history in Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs, the 49ers return to action in the first Monday night game of the 2024 season.
The 49ers return nearly all of their key players from the 2023 Super Bowl run, except for defensive end Chase Young and defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who was the 49ers' longest-tenured player before his release in March and subsequent move to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Even though many believe the 49ers are a regression candidate, there could also be a step forward from last year, as quarterback Brock Purdy is coming off his first entire, healthy offseason as the 49ers starter.
Although the 49ers' offense is one of the league’s best, they will face a Jets’ defense that is certain to be one of the best in the AFC.
Date: Monday, September 9
Start Time: 5:15 PST
Location: Santa Clara, CA
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
TV Info: ABC/ESPN (Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the Call)
49ers Uniform Info: Red jersey and gold pants
Jets Statistical Rankings (2023)
Points Per Game: 15.8 (29th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.9 (12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 268.6 Yards (31st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 171.7 Yards Per (30th) and 96.9 Yards Per (23rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 292.3 Yards (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 168.3 Yards Per (2nd) and 124.0 Yards Per (25th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 26.0% (32nd) and 37.2% (13th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 32.4% (32nd) and 49.0% (7th)
Penalties: 76 (31st)
Penalty Yardage: 945 Yards (29th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Monday
Jets: Wes Schweitzer (G) and Zaire Barnes (LB)
49ers: Yetur-Gross Matos (DE) and Dee Winters (LB), DOUBTFUL: Talanoa Hufanga (S), QUESTIONABLE: Aaron Banks (G) and Christian McCaffrey (RB)
New York Jets
Defense
The Jets' defense was already one of the league’s best last season and can quickly take a big step forward. That should be no surprise to 49ers fans, as Jets’ Head Coach Robert Saleh spent 2017-2020 with the 49ers as their defensive coordinator. Helping lead Saleh’s defense is defensive coordinator and former 49ers linebacker Jeff Ulbrich, who has been in that position since Saleh took over in 2021.
The connections to the 49ers don’t stop there, as the Jets' defense is scattered with former 49ers. The five former Niners on the Jets' defense are DTs Solomon Thomas and Javon Kinlaw, EDGE Takk McKinley, who would sign with them in 2020 but failed his physical, CB D.J. Reed, and S Isaiah Oliver.
Oliver and Kinlaw spent 2023 with the San Francisco.
The 49ers drafted Kinlaw in 2020 with the pick they acquired when they traded star DT DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts. Kinlaw never panned out as the 49ers had hoped, and his most noteworthy moment as a Niner was when he got into an argument with a 49ers reporter at practice.
When he wasn’t arguing with reporters, Kinlaw struggled to stay on the field and didn’t make much of an impact when he was. During his four years in San Francisco, Kinlaw only racked up five sacks and seven tackles for loss.
He arguably saved his “best” for last, as he got two TFLs in the 2023 postseason.
As for Oliver, his fit with the team was always questionable. He primarily played nickel back for the 49ers. The experiment went so poorly that the 49ers signed veteran Logan Ryan, who was going on cruises with his family during the early portion of the regular season, to replace him.
Later, it was rumored that former defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was very high on Oliver, which was why he signed with the 49ers. Outside of the former 49ers, the Jets defense is loaded at all levels. Even with Hasson Reddick still holding out, the Jets still have Quinnen Williams and Jermaine Johnson up front.
Even though the 49ers have the best linebacker in the league in Fred Warner, the Jets’ C.J. Mosley is among the few names mentioned after Warner for the best at the position. In the secondary, Sauce Gardner has a case for being the best corner in the league. This will be an interesting matchup, as the 49ers don’t typically throw outside the numbers.
Offense
The Jets were among the league’s worst offenses, which shouldn’t be surprising when Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle took 99.4% of snaps at quarterback.
It is an understatement to say the offense will improve. Even if Rodgers were to get hurt again, the Jets added veteran Tyrod Taylor, a respectable backup quarterback who ranks third among active quarterbacks with an INT% of just 1.7% (Rodgers is first at 1.4).
New York also has a great skill position group with receivers Mike Williams and Garrett Wilson to go along with running back Breece Hall, who finished fourth in 2023 with 1,585 yards from scrimmage.
The Jets revamped their offensive line, which makes sense given that Rodgers only played four snaps in his first season in New York due to poor pass protection, and the team allowed the fourth most sacks in the NFL.
This offseason, they signed left tackle Tyron Smith and left guard John Simpson and traded for right tackle Morgan Moses. New York’s offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett gets a lot of hate for his time as head coach of the Denver Broncos. However, before taking over the Broncos in 2022, Hackett spent three seasons with Rodgers as his offensive coordinator in Green Bay. Rodgers arguably had the best three-season stretch of his career in those three seasons as he almost threw 100!! More touchdowns than interceptions (111-13) and won two MVP’s.
San Francisco 49ers
Defense
Compared to the rest of the league, the 49ers had a great defense, but to their lofty standards and Super Bowl expectations, the defense might be the main reason the 49ers won’t be unveiling their first Super Bowl banner since moving south to Santa Clara on Monday.
Even though the 49ers are one of the current model franchises in the NFL, they will have their third defensive coordinator in as many years after DeMeco Ryans departed to the Houston Texans following 2022 and Wilks was fired shortly after the Super Bowl loss. This season, the defense will be led by Nick Sorenson, who has spent the last two seasons as an assistant coach.
Even though the defense lost Armstead and Young, they traded for Maliek Collins and signed Leonard Floyd to replace them. The duo of Collins and Floyd had 15.5 sacks compared to the 12.5 from Young and Armstead. That duo joins Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave to form what should be the best pass rush under Kyle Shanahan.
In the middle, the 49ers have Warner and added 2021 First-Team All-Pro De’Vondre Campbell, who spent 2021 and 2022 with Rodgers in Green Bay. Even though they’ll be without Dre Greenlaw for a while, that duo is still good enough to hold it down in the middle.
The cornerback group is one of the team's most underrated areas. Among the 53 players targeted at least 75 times, Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir ranked in the top eight for passer rating against, with Ward at sixth with 64.5 and Lenoir at eighth with 75.2. For comparison, Gardner trailed both at 80.3.
The biggest question will be who will be the third corner. Newcomers Isaac Yiadom and rookie Renardo Green are the favorites. With Hufanga doubtful, safety will be one of the most significant question marks. Ji’Ayir Brown is a lock to play and ended the 2023 season with an interception in the Super Bowl. Additionally, with the departure of veteran Tashuan Gipson Sr, San Francisco will look to George Odom and rookie Malik Mustapha to have significant roles against the Jets.
Offense
Purdy is back and coming off his first healthy offseason as a starter. That reason alone should inspire confidence among 49ers fans. He’ll have the same supporting cast as his historic 2023 season when he broke the franchise record for single-season passing yards.
With McCaffrey at running back, George Kittle at tight end, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings, who likely would’ve won Super Bowl MVP if they won, Purdy arguably has the best weapons in the NFL to go along with a generational play-caller in Shanhan.
With Aiyuk missing training camp due to his contract negotiation (and also the fact that he should be seeing Sauce a ton tonight) and McCaffrey being banged up, Purdy must rely heavily on Samuel, Jennings, and Kittle.
The offensive line is the most significant question mark for an otherwise stellar offense. Even though Trent Williams is back, there are questions about how he’ll look after missing all of camp while seeking a restructured contract.
Lining up next to Williams will be Banks, who’s expected to play at left guard, center Jake Brendel, rookie right guard Dominick Puni, who could represent the most significant position upgrade over last year’s right guard Spencer Burford, and right tackle Colton McKivitz. If Williams isn’t 100% back to playing speed, the line could make or break this game for the 49ers.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SF -4.0 (-112) | NYJ +4.0 (-108)
Moneyline: SF (-205) | NE (+170)
Over/Under: O 43 (-115) | U 43 (-105)
Via DraftKings
New York Jets ATS in 2023: 6-10-1
Even against the spread, the Jets were disappointing.
San Francisco 49ers ATS in 2023: 9-8 (0-3 in playoffs)
The 49ers were favored in all 20 of their games last year, so finishing over .500 in the regular season was impressive.
Prediction
This will be a close game with Rodgers healthy and McCaffrey banged up. While I’m not ready to call the Jets Super Bowl contenders, they are a great team and a playoff contender, assuming they stay healthy. The Niners will find ways to score even with McCaffrey, who is not 100%.
While the Jets' D-Line vs. the 49ers' O-Line will be a significant story, the game will come down to Rodgers and the Jets' offense vs. the 49ers' defense. If Bosa and company can put Rodgers under constant duress, the 49ers will win in a rocking Levi's Stadium environment.
Final score: San Francisco 49ers 24, New York Jets 20
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