NFL training camps have kicked off across the league, which means we are inching ever closer to the start of the NFL season. It wouldn't be an NFL season without me returning to rank all 32 starting quarterbacks heading into the season for the third year in a row.
The quarterback carousel was in full effect this off-season, as we have eight quarterbacks who were not ranked on the list last year whether it was because of injury (Kyler Murray) or because they ended up taking the reigns during the season (Will Levis and Gardner Minshew). There have once again been big shifts around the league in the quarterback position and it's my job to find where these guys land in the NFL quarterback hierarchy.
These lists mostly stream from how these players performed last year, with a bit of projection thrown into the mix, especially with the rookie quarterbacks on this list. With that in mind, let's find out how the new quarterback landscape looks heading into the 2024 season.
1. Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs - (Last Year: #1)
Well, well, well, looks who's back in the No. 1 spot for the third year in a row. The levels that Patrick Mahomes has ascended to in just five seasons of being the full-time starter is beyond impressive. Three-time Super Bowl champion, three-time Super Bowl MVP, two-time league MVP, a 3.47 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and nearly 30,000 yards passing (28,424). Mahomes and the Chiefs pulled off what only seven other teams have been able to do: repeat as Super Bowl Champions. After dispatching the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 last year, Mahomes led KC to another victory in the Big Game over Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers in the 2nd overtime game in Super Bowl history.
After a "down" year, where he still threw for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns, Mahomes should primed for a third MVP season (as a side note, as a Bears fan I would take that season from a quarterback in a heartbeat). Mahomes is the gold standard for NFL quarterbacks and it will take some monumental quarterback to knock him off the pedestal.
2. Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills - (Last Year: #3)
After falling behind Joe Burrow last season, Josh Allen has reclaimed his spot as the 2nd best quarterback in the league. Despite throwing the 2nd most interceptions (18) last season, Allen put up impressive numbers, throwing for 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns, and then an additional 524 yards on the ground with 15 rushing touchdowns (tied for the league lead with Jalen Hurts). Even with the higher interception totals, Allen completed 66.5% of his passes, a 3.2% increase from the last two seasons.
It was a roller-coaster season for Allen and the Bills, going from nearly missing the playoffs to winning the division for the 5th straight year. Allen was inconsistent as the Bills were, going from stretches of 17 total touchdowns to five interceptions for six weeks to just 11 total touchdowns and five interceptions in the season's final five games. The Bills season came to a familiar end, losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Yet they gave their fans the pleasure of seeing it in person, with the Bills losing at home for the first time in this playoff "rivalry." It will be a much tougher task for Allen without his top-2 receivers from a season ago, with Stefon Diggs in Houston and Gabe Davis in Jacksonville. They will now rely on rookie Keon Coleman and veterans Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be the new top three in the receiver room.
3. Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens - (Last Year: #5)
Lamar Jackson joined Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes as the only active quarterbacks to have multiple MVP awards after his 2023 season. Despite being dogged his entire career for being a "running back" Jackson threw for a career-high in yards (3,678), completion percentage (67.2%), and yards per attempt (8.0). Jackson also added 821 yards on the ground (5.5 per rush) and five touchdowns. Jackson put an exclamation point on his MVP campaign with his final two starts against the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins. Jackson threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns in the Ravens' 33-19 win, with fellow MVP candidate Brock Purdy throwing four interceptions. Then in Week 17 on New Year's Eve against the Dolphins, Lamar tossed five touchdowns and threw for 321 yards a week after Fox Sports Radio co-host Monse Bolaños said Jackson wasn't "quarterbacky," enough.
"I want my quarterbacks to be ‘quarterbacky,’" Bolaños said. "And, to me, Lamar Jackson’s just a great athlete, and he’s done a really good job and he had a great game against the 49ers. Prisoners of the moment, he is not the MVP. Christian McCaffrey is the MVP, and he has been. I’ve been saying this for weeks."
While the whole season was a failure for the Ravens, losing in the AFC Title game to the Chiefs (which I predicted in Volume 2 last year), Jackson is still one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. We'll see if the addition of Derrick Henry will elevate Jackson and the Ravens to a whole new level to dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
4. Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals - (Last Year: #2)
This ranking breaks down to just the fact that Jackson won MVP and that Burrow missed a large chunk of the season. Burrow was limited to 10 games last year due to a calf injury from the pre-season and then suffered a torn ligament in his wrist in Week 11 against the Ravens. Despite the injuries, Burrow still put up solid numbers in those 10 games, going for 2,309 yards (230.9 yards per game), 15 TDs, a 51.6 QBR, and only 6 INTs.
Burrow has been healthy so far in camp and has looked good so far. He even came into camp with the Slim Shady hair due with a promise to go to frosted tips once it starts to grow out.
The main concern for Burrow and the Bengals right now is the 4th-year wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase status. He and the Bengals are in a lengthy contract extension negotiations, with Chase being in and out of practice while the two sides try to figure things out. With those negotiations ongoing, the losses of Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon to the Titans and Texans respectively, and the AFC North being as tough as ever, Burrow will be placed under more pressure to avoid his usual early-season struggles. If the Bengals want to win this division and cement themselves as Super Bowl contenders, they need Burrow to be "Joe Sheisty" out of the gate.
5. Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys - (Last Year: #14)
As some wise people once said, your apology better be as loud as your disrespect was. I think that sentiment applies to how I treated Dak Prescott in last year's rankings. Yes, he was coming off a down season after leading the league in interceptions and the Cowboys losing in the playoffs again to the 49ers. Yet there was no reason to put Daniel Jones ahead of him after one season of mediocre play. Dak rebounded in 2023 with a much stronger showing, finishing 3rd in the league in yards (4,516), 1st in touchdowns (36), 1st in completion percentage (69.5), and 5th in yards per attempt (7.7).
With his performance last season, Prescott finished 2nd in MVP voting behind Jackson. Statistically, I think Prescott should have won MVP, but with Jackson leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed and having the best passing season of his career, it made sense. Despite the improvement and the Cowboys snatching the division title from the Eagles with a 12-5 record and the 2nd seed in the NFC. Yet, once again, they shrank when the playoffs rolled around. In a matchup with the 7th-seed Green Bay Packers, they were humiliated in the playoffs losing 48-32 after falling behind 41-16 at the start of the 4th quarter. While Dak went for 403 yards and three touchdowns, he threw two interceptions including a pick-six to make it 27-0 Packers in the 2nd quarter.
The only thing that Prescott has over Burrow at this stage is that his No. 1 wide receiver has a brand new contract. Signing CeeDee Lamb to a 4-year $136 million contract was the best move by a long shot for the Cowboys this off-season. Whether Dak will receive that same courtesy of a contract extension with him being an unrestricted free agent in 2025. This will be a prove-it year for Dak and whether the Cowboys decide to give one of their best quarterbacks in franchise history a contract he deserves.
6. Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers - (Last Year: #6)
The second member of the 2020 quarterback draft class comes in right where he did last year at No. 6 on my list. He could have finished a bit higher than he did, but the injuries he sustained that limited him to 13 games, he stays right where he was last year. It was a frustrating season for the few Chargers fans still out there, with Brandon Staley running a perfectly good playoff contender into the ground. Herbert's and the Chargers' season essentially ended when Herbert fractured his index finger on his throwing hand. Despite his shortened season, Herbert still managed to throw over 3,000 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions.
Despite that, Herbert had a career-low 65.1 completion percentage and his worst record as the full-time starter at 5-8. 2024 will be the worst group of position players that Herbert has ever had to work with and will be a good test of Herbert's metal as an elite NFL quarterback. Keenan Allen and Gerald Everet are in Chicago, Austin Ekeler is a Commander, and Mike Williams will try to stay healthy at Met Life Stadium with the Jets. Hopefully, the mountain-sized upgrade of Jim Harbaugh over Brandon Staley will allow the Charges to get the most out of Herbert and finally let him win a playoff game.
7. Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins - (Last Year: #9)
Let the Tuanon fanboys pile on this bandwagon as I moved up Tua to No. 7 on my list. The internet wants to claim Tua is a Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle merchant and that he has a noodle arm. I ask those people then: how did Tua finish tied for 2nd in average air yards per attempt before the pass was caught? I know Tua's passing numbers will be inflated with two of the fastest receivers in football, but you don't just luck into leading the NFL passing with 4,624 yards and a career-high 29 touchdown passes. It was a near-picture-perfect first half of the season for the Dolphins, with Tua leading them to a 9-3 start and a seemingly easy path to an AFC East Title for the first time since 2008.
Now if you read the section on Josh Allen, you know that the Dolphins collapsed in the season's final five games, going 2-3 and falling in Week 18 at home to the Bills, 21-14. Tua finished the season with just five touchdowns, and four interceptions and was sacked 12 times behind an injured offensive line after being bounced to the Wild Card game in a tundra-like environment at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs. In his first career playoff game, Tua barely completed 50% of his passes (20-for-39, 51.2%) 199 yards, and one touchdown in a 26-7 loss. Tua and the Dolphins must prove they can play when the temperature dips below 65 degrees outside balmy Miami. This will be pivotal for Tua and the Dolphins, with Tua being another member of the 2020 quarterback class who received a massive 4-year $212 million extension through 2028, matching head coach Mike McDaniel's extension he just signed. Whether either of them is worth that amount of time and money, we'll have to wait and see as this year and the next four unfolds.
8. Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers - (Last Year: #23)
No, not again. Not another franchise quarterback for the Green Bay Packers. Based on the second half of the season this seems to be the case. After a middling start to his NFL career, going for 2,009 yards, 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and a 58.6% completion percentage in his first nine games, Love found his groove. In the final eight games of the regular season, Jordan Love went thermonuclear, tossing 18 touchdowns to just one pick, 2,150 yards, and had a completion percentage of 70.2%.
Love's spark into an upper-echelon quarterback came at the right time for the Packers, as after a 3-6 start, Green Bay rebounded to a 6-2 finish to take the final Wild Card in the NFC. After dispatching the Cowboys in the Wild Card round, they had a date with a familiar playoff foe in the No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. The Packers had several leads, including a 21-17 lead with 1:07 left until Christian McCaffery scored on a six-yard touchdown run to take a 24-21 lead. Then with a chance to take the lead or tie the game back up, Love threw a terrible interception to Dre Greenlaw to seal the 49ers' eventual run to the Super Bowl.
Despite a sour end to an unexpected season, it was a great stepping stone for the Packers heading into 2024. To reward their breakout quarterback, the Packers and Love agreed to a four-year $220 million extension good until 2028. Whether Love can be beyond a one-year wonder is yet to be determined, but it's hard to argue that Jordan Love shouldn't be considered a top-10 quarterback in the league.
9. Jared Goff - Detroit Lions - (Last Year #11)
The former No. 1 overall pick has created a new home with the Detroit Lions. After a rocky first season in 2021 and a resurgence in 2022, 2023 was a culmination of his comeback in the NFL world. Goff returned as a quarterback of a division-winning team, the first time for the Lions since the NFC North was called the NFC Central in 1993. Goff pilled up 4,575 yards (2nd), 30 TDs (4th), 7.6 yards per attempt (Tied for 6th), and completed 67.3% of his passes (5th).
The question now remains is if Goff can finally seal the deal. Goff has made it to two NFC Title games and a Super Bow but is 1-2 in those contests, the lone win coming in one of the most infamous missed calls in playoff history. The Lions have the roster around Goff to compete for a Super Bowl and go at it with the rest of the league's contenders. The question comes down to whether he can finally push himself to the top of the NFL mountain.
10. Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles - (Last Year: #4)
It was a bit of a mixed bag for the former MVP runner-up. Despite throwing for a career-high 3,858 yards and putting up a total of 38 touchdowns, the second half of his season was less than MVP-like. During the 1-5 stretch for the Eagles to end the season, Hurts combined for nine touchdowns and had five interceptions while completing 61.1% of his passes. The loss of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen hampered the creativity of the Eagles' dynamic offense that led them to a Super Bowl appearance. Our own Connor Dixon wrote extensively on how the lack of pre-snap motion showed that Brian Johnson didn't know how to utilize the group of skill players at his disposal.
After a 10-1 start, the Eagles skidded into the playoffs with an 11-6, with losses to the Seattle Seahawks with Drew Lock under center and the rebuilding Arizona Cardinals. The falloff cost the Eagles the division, allowing Dallas to take the division. Like their division rival, they vastly underperformed in the Wild Card round, getting blown out by the resurgent Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Baker Mayfield in Tampa. The former Oklahoma Sooner is in the second year of a massive five-year $255 million deal he signed back in April of last year and if he wants to be worth every penny of that deal he needs to take better care of the ball, throwing 15 interceptions and fumbling nine times. Hopefully with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new running back Saquon Barkley, Hurts and the Eagles will avoid a collapse and try to re-take the East.
11. C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans - (Last Year: #29 - Biggest Jump)
This year's biggest jump from 2023 belongs to the former No. 2 overall pick C.J. (or Coleridge) Stroud. It was one of the most unexpected seasons for a rookie quarterback and a team in 2023 for Stroud and the Houston Texans. Just removed from apparently blowing the No. 1 pick to the Chicago Bears, Stroud led the Texans to their first AFC South title since 2019. Although Stroud had a low score on the Wonderlick test, that didn't show on the field, as Stroud processed defenses so well that he only threw five interceptions all year and didn't throw his first interception until Week 6. Stroud performed so well that he earned Offensive Rookie of the Year after putting up 4,108 yards and 26 total touchdowns (23 passing-three rushing). Stroud made highlight-level plays all season long, but the game that elevated him to near the level of a top-10 quarterback was Week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Houston.
Stroud went thermonuclear, breaking the single-game rookie passing record with 470 yards, completing 71.4% and five touchdowns in a barn burner of a game. Stroud also showed off his clutch gene, completing a 36-second touchdown drive, ending with a 15-yard pass to Tank Dell to give the Texans a 39-37 win. After winning the division, Stroud and a stout Texans defense led them to a playoff victory over the Cinderella Cleveland Browns, going for 274 yards and three touchdowns. The party ended the following week in the divisional round playing against the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens in a 34-10 loss. With the addition of Stephon Diggs and Joe Mixon to go along with Nico Collins and Dell, the Texans are flush with weapons for Stroud as the Texans seemed primed for a Super Bowl run. Thanks to Stroud, we may finally see the end of the "all Ohio State quarterbacks are bad in the NFL" shtick.
12. Brock Purdy - San Fransicso 49ers - (Last Year: #17)
Mr. Irrelevant just keeps making himself more and more relevant in the NFL world. In his first full year as a starter, Purdy proved his Linsanity run wasn't just a fluke from last season. Purdy followed up a strong rookie relief performance with 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and completed 69.4% of his passes. While Purdy is flush with weapons and arguably has the best playcaller in the league with Kyle Shannahan, it still takes a talented quarterback to make it happen. There is a reason that Trey Lance never worked out in San Fran and why he's QB3 in Dallas. Purdy did lead the league in air yards per attempt at 5.5 and had the 9th most air yards in the league with 2,439.
While there isn't a lot of flash to Purdy's game, he doesn't need to show off any game-breaking talent. When you have Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and the recently resigned duo of Brandon Ayiuk and Trent Williams, all you have to do is not lose the game and Purdy does that. The main challenge for this 49ers team is to finally get over the hump they haven't been able to topple since 1994: win a Super Bowl. Since 2011 they have made the conference championship game six times and lost three Super Bowls, twice to Patrick Mahomes and the Cheifs. The 49ers have one of the best rosters in the league and should have won at least one Super Bowl by now and they are going to have to do it soon, with Purdy scheduled to be a free agent in 2026. The time is now and hopefully, Purdy can finally break in and get that elusive Super Bowl and move into the top 10.
13. Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Year: #8)
It was quite the tumble for the Lawernce and the Jaguars to end 2023. After surging back to prominence in 2022 once he was free from the shackles of Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson, 2023 was supposed to be the next step up and hold onto a division title. The first 12 weeks of the season seemed to back that up, with Lawrence tossing 12 touchdowns and 2,746 yards while completing 67.3% of his passes. The Jaguars were riding high heading after week 12, improving to 8-3 after a 24-21 win over the rival Houston Texans.
Then the collapse happened for Lawrence and Jacksonville. In the final five games of the year, after Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain, Lawrence nearly had a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio (9 TDs:7 INTs), his completion percentage dropped to 62.3, and lost three fumbles. In that same span, the Jags went 1-5 with the lone win coming in a shutout against the hapless Carolina Panthers (a game Lawrence didn't even play in). Because of that downturn, the Jags missed the playoffs altogether and the Texans snatched the division crown from them with a 10-7 record. Despite his middling performances up to this point in his short career, GM Trent Balke rewarded him with a five-year $275 million deal that shores up his time in Duvall until 2030. There is a lot of work to be done in one of the most competitive divisions in football and with the off-season the Texans had, a lot more difficult. The main question is whether Lawrence can find some of his magic from 2022, otherwise, the Jaguars will have an expensive mistake on their hands.
14. Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - (Last Year: #27)
One of the other big risers from last year is former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. After playing for the Panthers and Rams in 2022, Mayfield signed a one-year deal with Tampa to replace Tom Brady for 2023. It turned out to be one of the best free agent signings of the off-season, as Mayfield put up a career season with 4,044 yards, 28 TDs, 64.3% completion percentage, and just 10 interceptions. Mayfield's season was so good that he made the Pro Bowl and finished 3rd in Comeback Player of the Year behind Damar Hamlin and Joe Flacco.
With a weak division, Baker and the Bucs won the NFC South title with a 9-8 record. In a bit of an upset, they took down the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles in a 32-9 blowout fashion, with Mayfield putting up the best playoff game of his career with 337 yards, three touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 119.8. The magic of Baker's Bucs ended in the divisional round with a 31-23 loss against the Detroit Lions, with Mayfield throwing two interceptions, along with his three touchdowns and 349 yards. With Mayfield putting together a season that many thought he could during his time in Cleveland, GM Jason Licht handed out a three-year $100 million deal with $50 million guaranteed. With most of the team on offense returning, except former OC Dave Canales heading to Carolina as the new head coach, the Buccaneers will be primed for another run at an NFC South Title. The big difference will be that Baker will have a little bit more competition for that title with the next quarterback on the list.
15. Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons - (Last Year: #12)
After a few seasons in the great white north of Minnesota, Kirk Cousins traded in his winter jacket for the warmer weather of Atlanta to play for the Falcons. Cousins spent the last six seasons with Minnesota, trying to bring them back to the glory they reached in 2017 with Case Keenum, going to the NFC championship game. Yet the Vikings were never able to get out out the divisional round in Kirk’s six seasons. Last season though was not his fault because he sustained a brutal Achilles tear after the Vikings had fought their way back to a 4-4 record after starting the season 1-4. Captain Kirk still threw for 2,331 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions, and Included a clutch performance against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.
Cousins now heads to a team that seemed to be just a quarterback away from competing after Matt Ryan left for the Colts and then retired. The combination of Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder with Arthur Smith at the helm made Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and to a certain extent Bijan Robinson ineffective at times in the passing game. Now with a massive upgrade at quarterback, they should be a lot more effective than they have been in years past. This signing firmly puts the Falcons in the running for the NFC South with Tampa and New Orleans for the next couple of seasons. Atlanta just has to hope that the Achilles tear is just a blip on the radar and not something that will be a big concern moving forward.
16. Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams - (Last Year: #19)
After one of his worst seasons as a pro in 2022, Matthew Stafford rebounded in a big way in 2023. Stafford played in 15 games, going for 3,965 yards, and 24 touchdowns, and completed 62.6% of his passes. The resurgent Stafford was buoyed by 5th-round rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, who had the best season for a rookie at his position with 105 catches, 1.486 yards, and six touchdowns.
Through those efforts, the Rams made it back to the playoffs against Stafford's former team: the Detroit Lions. In a tight affair, it was the Lions who came out on top, but it was a big step in the right direction for the Rams heading into 2024. Now heading into his 16th season at age 36, it will be key to see if Stafford can maintain his standard of excellence that has allowed him to rack up 56,047 yards in his storied, Super Bowl winning, career.
17. Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets (Last Year: #7)
The man who played just four snaps in 2023 dropped 10 spots from my last list. When we last saw Rodgers in a full year as the starter, he threw the most interceptions since his first year as a starter (12) and his yardage dropped by 420 (because of course, it did for Rodgers) and the Packers missed the playoffs, losing to the Lions in Week 18. Rodgers seems to be fully healthy going into 2024 despite also tearing his Achilles on the Met Life turf, exactly where his season will start on Monday Night Football against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Jets have moved to give Rodgers more protection upfront with Tyron Smith at left tackle, Morgan Moses at right tackle, and John Simpson at left guard. The Jets also went out and signed Mike Williams to be the new wide receiver 2 next to Garrett Wilson and drafted former Western Kentucky wideout Malachi Corley. I'm not confident in the nearly 41-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear to reach anywhere near the MVP level he was at just two years ago. The Jets are primed to be a playoff team, but it will all come down to No. 8 in green (hopefully) taking every single offensive snap this season.
18. Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks - (Last Year: #10)
After bursting onto the scene in 2022, Smith felt a little bit back down to earth in 2023. After throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns in '22, his totals dipped to 3,624 yards passing and 20 touchdowns in '23. Smith is stepping into an important part of his career with two years left on his contract at age 34. If Smith can rebound back closer to his 2024 form over the next two years, he could set himself up with one more good payday before hanging up the pads. Based on these plays and what he has said, he's getting more and more comfortable in Seattle.
“Kind of knowing that you’re going to go in and be the starter allows you to … be a little bit more comfortable,” Smith said on Thursday. “And I think I’ve settled down a little bit … it’s just helping me be more calm when I’m out there.”
Comfort is a big thing and despite the change in head coach and offensive coordinator. Ryan Grubb didn't have to move far to change jobs at the OC, coming from the University of Washington, and had one of the best offenses in the country ranked first in the nation in passing yards per game (369.8), and second in total yards per game (515.8). Hopefully with this new combination, Smith can find a way to tap into his 2022 form and get Seattle back to the playoffs.
19. Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears - (Rookie)
The one who was promised is finally set to make his debut. After running through two top-11 picks in Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields, one of the best quarterback prospects since Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence will be playing navy and orange. After putting up a Heisman season in 2022 with 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, and just five interceptions, he put up another strong season in 2023. Despite a poor offensive line and bad defense, Williams still completed 68.6% of his passes, threw for 30 touchdowns, 3,633, and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt.
While there are concerns with Williams holding onto the ball too long or instances where he does like to play hero ball at times, I think a lot of that came from the poor supporting cast around him in his senior year at USC. That will not be the case this year in Chicago, with Williams having a solid offensive line, D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift. With a new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and a revamped offense, Caleb Williams has all the chances in the world to be the best quarterback that Chicago has ever seen.
20. Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals - (Last Year: NR)
Welcome back to the list Kyler Murray. After tearing his ACL in mid-2022, Murray returned to his old starting gig in November after a gaggle of Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune running the show for the Cardinals at QB. The former No. 1 overall pick posted solid numbers in his eight-game stint, passing for 1,799 yards, 13 total touchdowns, and five interceptions. There were signs of his improvements in breaking off the rust, including a three-touchdown performance in the Cardinals upset the Philadelphia Eagles, 35-31.
This is the time when Murray has to prove he is worth the contract he signed in 2022 is worth it, considering this is the first year that the extension goes into effect. His cap hit will now jump from $16 million to $49.1 million and it will hover around that amount until 2028. The Cardinals rewarded Murray for his return with a new No. 1 receiver in the No. 4 overall pick draft in Ohio State's Marvin Harrsion Jr (Yes, that is Marvin Harrison's son). Now with Harrison, James Conner, Trey McBride, and Micheal Wilson, the Cardinals have a talented young core for Murray to work with for several years to come. Whether he can take advantage of that fact will be seen soon, but it's a fun time in Arizona.
21. Russell Wilson - Pittsburgh Steelers - (Last Year: #20)
Steelers Country, let's weld. That’s at least what I think Russell Wilson said in his mind when he signed with the Steelers after being cut by the Denver Broncos. After a disaster in 2022 with Nathaniel Hackett at the helm, Denver hoped to salvage the Russ era with former New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton. Things got slightly better, with Wilson throwing for more touchdowns (26), fewer interceptions (8), and a higher completion percentage (66.4%). Despite the improvement and their first victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in 16 tries, things were very contentious between Payton and Wilson. There were even reports that Wilson couldn’t handle the snap count or play calls coming from Payton.
The road for Wilson to become the starter wasn’t ordained, with the Steelers trading for former Bears QB Justin Fields for a conditional 6th-round pick. Yet at the end of the day, Wilson won the job out of camp and will now try to keep head coach Mike Tomlin’s winning record streak alive. Wilson will be 36 by the time November hits and I’m not sure how much gas he has left in the tank at this stage of his career. However with the good structure in place (minus Arthur Smith as OC), “Mr. Unlimited” can play well enough to help the Steelers go 9-8 once again.
22. Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints - (Last Year: #15)
After saying goodbye to Drew Brees in 2020, the Saints wandered through the quarterback desert before potentially finding their oasis in former Raiders Pro Bowler Derek Carr. The former Fresno State quarterback put up solid numbers in the Big Easy, 3,878 yards, 25 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and his third-highest completion percentage of his career at 68.4%. It was the perfect marriage between the team and quarterback, with the Saints putting out a mid record of 9-8 losing the division to the Buccaneers on a tiebreaker, and missing the playoffs altogether. Carr did look much stronger in the final five games of the year, tossing 14 touchdowns to two interceptions, 1,117 yards, and completing 74% of his passes. The Saints did go 4-1, with their lone loss a 30-22 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16.
It was a frustrating season for the Saints and Carr, with several teammates getting into arguments on the field. It's tough to gauge how well Carr will do in year two in New Orleans, but I think there are signs he could have a more consistent 2024, with the Saints firing Pete Carmicheal in favor of Klint Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator. There isn't a bevy of weapons outside of Chris Olave and an aging Alvin Kamara, but I think Carr can work with a solid group
23. Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts - (Last Year: #30)
The king of unknown potential comes in at No. 23 on the list. When people say there isn't a lot known about Richardson or how he could turn out, I truly understand why. I saw a stat the other day that between high school, college, and the NFL, Richardson only has 17 career starts under his belt. Richardson had some flashes of greatness, but it's hard to evaluate him based on 84 career passes in the NFL. In his four starts for Indy, Richardson completed less than 60% of his passes (59.5%), and threw three touchdowns to one interception. The biggest thing known about Richardson was his meme character and his voice on Bleacher Report's Gridiron Heights. I think the former No. 4 overall pick can succeed in the league, but it's hard to say much more than treating this like his real rookie season. His placement more has to do with some players getting worse and new rookies coming into the league, but I do believe that Richardson could be a good starter this year.
24. Gardner Minshew - Las Vegas Raiders - (Last Year: NR)
This era's Ryan Fitzpatrick has found himself his fourth new team in five seasons, with Minshew moving to Sin City to become the new starter for the Raiders. After spending two seasons as the Jacksonville Jaguars starter, Minshew spent two seasons as the backup to Jalen Hurts in Philly before following former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to Indianapolis. The plan was for Minshew to continue to be a backup, this time under the No. 4 overall pick in Richardson. That didn't last long as Richardson played in just four games due to a season-ending shoulder surgery with the Colts sitting at 2-2. In comes the "Jockstrap King" who nearly led the Colts to their first playoff appearance since 2020. In 13 games, Minshew went 7-6 while putting up solid stats of 3,305 yards, 15 touchdowns, an 84.6 quarterback rating, and completed 62.2% of his passes. While the stats don't say much, what makes Minshew such a valuable quarterback is his leadership and what the kids call 'aura'.
It's an era of transition for the Raiders, after moving on from Derek Carr in 2023 and then cutting ties with Jimmy Garapollo after one uninspiring season. Aidan O'Connell is a younger quarterback compared to Minshew, but there is no clear franchise quarterback and I think Minshew can be an average placeholder until the Raiders can figure out what to do at the position for the long term for the next two seasons at $25 million.
25. Will Levis - Tennessee Titans - (Last Year: NR)
The Mayo Man is now the full-time starter in Tennessee. It was an unexpected fall for Levis to start his NFL career, with him initially projected to be a top-5 pick who slipped to the first pick of the second round (#33 overall). The plan was for him to sit behind veteran Ryan Tannehill, but that all changed after Tannehill finally fell off the cliff at 35 years old, with him throwing just four touchdowns to seven interceptions over the eight games he started. Tennesssee and head coach Mike Vrabel went to the rookie after their bye week to make his debut against the Atlanta Falcons. Levis lit the world on fire, throwing for 238 yards and four touchdowns in the Titans 28-23 win.
The rest of his season wasn't as good as his debut, with Levis tossing just four touchdowns and four interceptions in his next seven starts while completing 58.1% of his passes. Levis did have a career-high 327 yards in an insane comeback against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, but the small sample size and inconsistency make it hard to put Levis any higher than I have him. A full off-season with him being the No. 1 guy and adding Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd will make life easier as Levis tries to prove that he should have been a top-5 pick in the 2023 draft.
26. Bryce Young - Carolina Panthers - (Last Year: #26)
If C.J. Stroud had one of, if not the best, rookie season for a quarterback, Bryce Young was the complete opposite. It's hard to blame the miniature quarterback, with the Panthers sending the one weapon Young would have loved to have in D.J. Moore to the Bears to even select Young in the first place. Young was forced to have Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Terrance Marshall, and rookie Johnathan Mingo as pass catchers. Thielen did put up over 1,000 yards and four touchdowns, but the next closest was Chark who had just 525 yards and five touchdowns. While Young did have some minor success in the first half of the season, the second half was a nightmare outside of a career day against the Green Bay Packers in a 33-30 loss, going for 312 yards and two touchdowns.
Things should be better in 2024 for the former No. 1 overall pick, with the Panthers adding two new offensive linemen, two wide receivers in Dionte Johnson and Xavier Leggette, and switching out Frank Reich for former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales at head coach. While I wouldn't expect the Panthers to make any playoff noise this year, that's not the point of this season. The point is to have Bryce Young take a step forward in his development and show why he was the No. 1 pick over Stroud and Richardson. Even if the Panthers finish 4-13, but Young throws for almost 4,000 yards, completes over 60% of his passes, and has a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio, I would say the Panthers and Young are on the right track heading into 2025.
27. Jacoby Brissett - New England Patriots - (Last Year NR)
The sacrificial lamb for Drake Maye's development comes in the form of a reunion with former QB 3 Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has been one of the best backup journeymen quarterbacks over his eight seasons in the NFL. While he's only compiled an 18-30 record as the full-time starter over his time with the Patriots, Colts, Browns, and Dolphins, he has been a sought-after quarterback through his leadership and solid play in a pinch. Brissett played only three games last year, coming on in relief for the turnover-prone Sam Howell, going 18-for-23, 224 yards, and three touchdowns without throwing a single interception. In his last season as a starter with the Browns in 2022 in 11 games before Deshaun Watson's suspension ended, Brissett had a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio, threw for 2,608 yards, and completed 64.1% of his passes with a 4-7 record.
Brissett will do a fine job holding the starting job while Drake Maye learns from him. In a perfect world, Brissett starts the full year until Week 18 where they give Maye a shot at home against the Buffalo Bills. Until then, head coach Jerod Mayo just has to hope that Brissett can last a full season behind what seems to be a below-average offensive line.
28. Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns - (Last Year: #21)
The most deserving falloff in NFL history comes in as the 5th worst starting quarterback in the league. After being traded to the Cleveland Browns in 2022, Watson has only played in 12 games due to suspension and injury and has not looked close to his former self while he was in Houston. While the Browns were 5-1 during his stint this season, he wasn't the main reason for the Browns' success. In those six games, Bill Cos... I mean Watson only threw for 1,115 yards, seven touchdowns, and four interceptions, while carrying a quarterback rating of 84.3, 5.2 points higher than his 2022 with Cleveland.
This will be a pivotal year for Watson and the Browns, with Cleveland restructuring his deal once again to put his 2025 and 2026 cap hits at $72.9 million, with a base salary of $46 million. Lots of big players for the Browns will be free agents after this year, with Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Jedrick Wills all set to hit the market. If Watson can't find a way to be at least 60% of what he was with the Texans, then the Browns could be heading toward a rebuild faster than they expected. The funny part about all of this is that they could have had the better quarterback, adult, and contract if they had decided to hold onto Baker Mayfield instead of trading for what Jack Gaffney liked to call the "Nasty Man". As I mentioned at the top, this couldn't be a more deserving fate to a team and player for what they all did.
29. Jayden Daniels - Washington Commanders - (Rookie)
The new franchise quarterback in Washington comes in the form of Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. The path that Daniels has been on is truly interesting for him to reach Washington. Daniels played the first three seasons of his college career at Arizona State, going for 6,024 yards and 32 touchdowns with the Sun Devils. It was nowhere near the caliber that would have shot him up at the No. 2 overall pick, but that changed once Daniels made his way to the Louisana Bayou. After a solid 2022, Daniels broke out with 40 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns, and 4,946 total yards (3,812 passing and 1,134 rushing). Along with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., the Tigers went 10-3 and took down Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl 35-31. Daniels is a dynamic runner and he should be a very entertaining player to watch right away with the weapons he has on offense.
I have two main concerns with Daniels down to whether he will learn to protect his body and his lack of college success before 2023. The first part is more of a meme, but only breaking out in his fifth year of college over two schools is cause for concern. I do worry that Daniels could be an LSU Justin Fields clone, where he can occasionally make highlight reel plays through the air and on the ground, but his play-to-play performance is so inconsistent that the few splash plays he can create won't matter if he's barley hovering over 60% completion percentage. My last point is for everyone riding with Daniels to win offensive rookie of the year. While I don't doubt that Daniels will make a compelling case, Williams is in such a better position in Chicago to rack up big numbers and win early in his career. Overall, I'm excited to see what Jayden Daniels can bring to the NFL after his stellar 2023 season in college.
30. Bo Nix - Denver Broncos - (Rookie)
My opinions of Bo Nix have shifted wildly since October/November of 2023. After initially learning that he was attending the Senior Bowl in Mobile, I did my best to hype up the former Oregon QB, seeing his future NFL potential. Then the Senior Bowl came in January of this year and I was unimpressed with his performance. He seemed to be lagging behind some of the other quarterbacks there, including Senior Bowl MVP Spencer Rattler. Yet when the draft came, Nix was selected by the Denver Broncos at the No. 12 spot as the 5th quarterback off the board in this class. In one final swing the other way, the preseason came and went and Nix impressed during his time on the field.
I still have my doubts about Nix, considering the only other two quarterbacks he was battling with were Zach Wilson and Jarret Stidham for the job. I somewhat compare Nix to Mac Jones in the sense that they both have the highest floor out of this class, but I'm not sure what his ceiling will be at the end of the day. I think Nix's skill set matches up with Sean Payton's offensive game plan and I do expect him to have some success out of the gate for Denver. Yet, age aside, there was a reason Nix was the 5th quarterback off the board and why of the rookie starters he was listed last (Although in all honesty, I would have put him ahead of J.J. McCarthy if he had won the job and not gotten injured).
31. Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings - (Last Year: NR)
What a journey for Sam Darnold in his relatively short NFL career. After being picked No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold spent three underwhelming seasons with the New York Jets before being traded to the Carolina Panthers hoping to revive his career. Unfortunately, Darnold's starting career stayed a ghost as he failed to muster any sort of success in Carolina, going 8-9 in 17 starts. In hopes of learning from Kyle Shanahan, Darnold signed a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers and beat out former No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance for the QB2 job, forcing San Fran to trade Lance to Dallas. The former USC quarterback played in 10 games but only started in one in Week 18 against the Rams, going 16-for-26, 189 yards, and a touchdown in San Fran's 21-20 loss.
In one last-ditch effort to prove he can be a starting quarterback in the league at 27 years old, Darnold signed a one-year deal with the Minnesota Vikings after Cousins signed in Atlanta. Darnold was expected to battle with first-round pick J.J. McCarthy for the job, but a torn meniscus to McCarthy handed Darnold the reigns as the full-time starter. While Darnold is in an offense flush with high-end skill players in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, and a strong offensive line, there's a reason that Darnold has been relegated to being a backup at this stage in his career. We'll see if the man who saw ghosts can exercise his demons in Minnesota, otherwise expect a new name to pop up under the Minnesota Vikings quarterback on this list for 2025.
32. Daniel Jones - New York Giants - (Last Year: #13 - Biggest Drop)
I formally apologize for any quarterbacks I had behind Daniel Jones last year. I was completely fooled by a fluke run to the playoffs and the mistake-free football he played. Jones was limited to just six games in 2023 after tearing his ACL in week nine against the Raiders. Based on how he played before that, I wouldn't have been surprised if Jones got benched for Tyrod Taylor at some point. Jones went 1-5 in his six starts and threw for just 909 yards, two touchdowns, six interceptions, and was sacked 30 times (five times per game). This is the man the Giants paid $160 million to over four years and were seemingly prepared to move on if they traded up in the draft.
Jones is still working his way back from the ACL tear and it has been former Seahawks and Broncos signal caller Drew Lock is slotted as QB1 while Jones tries to get healthy. Maybe there is a chance that Jones can get back to the solid play he had in 2022, but based on what I have seen in every other year of his career I doubt that ever happens. Look for the Giants to be on the radar for a new quarterback in 2025. That is why Daniel Jones is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL.
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