The Eagles have their second straight divisional game, which will be the toughest yet. For a long time, the NFC East was the Cowboys and Eagles battling for the division while the Commanders, or whatever name they went by at the time, and Giants were there. This season, the Eagles and Commanders are two of the top teams in the NFC, both having seven wins, while the Cowboys and Giants have won a combined five games. The Eagles and Commanders had two very close games last season, the Eagles winning both games 34-31, then 38-31.
Since then, both teams have improved on both sides of the ball, but it should be another close matchup. The Commanders lead the all-time record against Philadelphia, 88-85-6. The Commanders' three losses come against the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Steelers. The Eagles' only losses are to the Falcons and Buccaneers, coming within the season's first four weeks. The combined record of the four teams to beat the Eagles and Commanders is 24-15.
Game Info
Date: November 14th, 2024
Start Time: 8:15 PM ET
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Stadium: Lincoln Financial Field
TV Info: Prime Video (Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit on the call)
Eagles Uniform Info: Green helmet, green jersey, white pants
Commanders Statistical Rankings 2024
Points Per Game: 29.0 (T-3rd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.7 (12th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 377.0 (4th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 223.5 (11th) | 153.5 (4th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 324.9 (14th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 182.8 (5th) | 142.1 (28th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 44.7% (5th) | 42.1% (23rd)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 54.5% (16th) | 70.0% (30th)
Penalties: 59 (14th)
Penalty Yardage: 452 (14th)
Players Already Ruled Out
Commanders: CB Marshon Lattimore, LB Nick Bellore, DT Jonathan Allen, DE Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Eagles: CB James Bradberry, WR Britain Covey
Washington Commanders
Defense
The Commanders' defense has been in the middle of the pack in most categories, but with the firepower on offense, it's been enough to win games. They've given up 30+ points in three games and give up the 12th most points per game with 21.7. The main area this defense excels is against the pass, giving up the fifth least pass yards per game. They're one of 12 teams in the league to allow under 200 passing YPG. They allow 66% of their opponent's passes to be completed; Jalen Hurts completes 70% of them on the season. They've allowed 17 passing touchdowns but have only four interceptions. They also have six fumble recoveries for ten takeaways on the year. They traded for Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, but he will miss his second straight game since being acquired due to a hamstring injury.
Washington will also be without DT Jonathan Allen, who has not played since Week 6. The Commanders' defensive line has been the strongest part of this defense, being tied for the ninth most sacks with 27; LB Dante Fowler JR. has been a big part of that, having 8.5 sacks, the third most by any player this season. He also has ten of the team's 47 TFLs and a 67-yard pick-six. He's been the best Commander defender without a doubt, but he'll have his hands full trying to defend this high-powered Eagles offense.
Offense
Jayden Daniels has done wonders for this offense. They're in the top five in PPG, YPG, and rushing YPG. They have no rusher over 500 yards but still have 1,535 rush yards on the season. Brian Robinson Jr. will return this week, so the Birds will have him and Austin Ekeler to worry about in the backfield, not to mention the team's leading rusher, Jayden Daniels, who has 464 yards and four TDs on the ground. He's fumbled twice but lost neither, and he has the most rushing first downs on the team, with 29. As a team, they average 4.9 YPC and have 18 rushing TDs. The Eagles' run defense will be their toughest test yet. Philadelphia allows just 100.7 rush YPG, but they've allowed just 71 per game in their last three contests.
Terry McLaurin is on pace to have his FIFTH straight 1,000-yard receiving season. He already has six receiving touchdowns this season, his career high being seven in his rookie year. He could tie his career high this week, but that will be an extremely tough task as he'll be guarded by rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell who has yet to give up a TD all season and has not given up more than 23 yards in his last five games. This game could have the offensive and defensive rookies of the year in Mitchell and Daniels. No other Commander has over 500 receiving yards, and none of them have more than one receiving TD. Zach Ertz returns to the Linc this week, which will be bittersweet for him and the Philadelphia fans who watched him give everything he had to that city for over eight years, being a massive part in bringing them their first Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles
Defense
The Eagles' defense has been arguably the best in the league over these past five games. They give up the second least yards per game and allow just 17.9 PPG, tied for fifth most in the league. This is the biggest challenge for the defense this season, going against the third-best offense in terms of points per game. The Eagles' run defense has improved immensely, but part of that is due to the Eagles going up big, forcing the other team to pass to catch up. Washington's run game is the most vital part of their offense, averaging the fourth most rushing yards per game and having the third most rushing yards as a team with 1,535, just 50 less than the Eagles.
The Commanders' air attack is still good, but getting past this secondary might need to be better. Nobody has been able to put up good numbers against Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean has been lockdown in the slot. The Birds are 5-0 since DeJean took over as a starter, allowing 13 PPG in those five games. CJ Gardner Johnson has gotten better as the season progresses. He almost allowed CeeDee Lamb to score last week, but the sun's glare blocked Lamb's vision so he couldn't see the ball. There was no harm or foul. In three of their last five games, Philadelphia has held their opponents to no offensive touchdowns. It has yet to let a divisional opponent score a TD against them.
Offense
The Eagles offense will happily welcome back star OT Jordan Mailata this week. Philly's offense should have another good week, facing a good but not great Washington defense. The Commanders are much better against the pass than they are against the run, which plays out perfectly for the Birds, who average under 200 passing yards per game but rush for the second most YPG with 176.1. Saquon Barkley is second in rushing yards with 991 and has over 1,000 total yards on the season. He averages 5.8 YPC and has found the end zone on the ground eight times this season. It would be more, but he got stooped just short enough to set up the brotherly shove multiple times, leaving Hurts with ten rushing touchdowns in the year, which he's done in every season that he's started. His career high is 15 rushing TDs, which he had last year, and with eight games left to play, he could very easily break that record. He gets more rushing TDs each season, having four as a backup his rookie season, then 10, 13, and 15. If this trend continues, he could become the first player to have a 20/20 season in NFL history.
Speaking of Jalen Hurts, we can't forget how efficient he's been as a passer. He hasn't had to pass much with this team's ground game, but he's been highly accurate when asked to throw it, especially since the bye week. He currently completes 70% of his passes, which would be a career-high by far. His highest completion percentage in a season is 66.5%, which he had in 2022. He has just the 19th most passing yards with 1,976, but he also has the 10th least attempts. He has 12 passing touchdowns, the tenth most in the league, and the eighth-highest QBR at 64.3. The Birds are 6-0 when AJ plays and average 30.2 PPG when he's on the field. He leads the team in receiving yards with 553, and his partner in crime, DeVonta Smith, is right behind him with 487 yards and a team-high four receiving touchdowns. Both receivers are on pace to have a 1,000-yard season for the third year in a row, which is insane considering that no Eagles duo had ever done it even once before them.
Betting Info
Points Spread: PHI -3.5 (-110) | WSH +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: PHI (-192) | WSH (+160)
Over/Under: O 48.5 (-112) | U 48.5 (-108)
Lines Via Draft Kings as of 11/13/24
Prediction
This is going to be a very stressful game for both sides. Both teams excel on both sides of the football game and match up nicely against each other. There's a good chance this game comes down to who has the ball last. Both teams will have to play as close to a perfect game as possible; one turnover could change the whole direction of the game. Philly has gotten away with some slow starts, but against this Commanders team, they can't go down multiple possessions early. Luckily, they've been much better as of late, but that was against two much worse opponents, and both first-quarter touchdowns they have this season were set up by the defense. I do think the Eagles will take this one, mainly because it's in Philadelphia, but it should be a one-possession game that comes down to the wire.
Final Score: Eagles 31, Commanders 27
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