It's here—week one of the 2024 NFL season has finally arrived! For the next six months, NFL football will be a staple in family living rooms. If you haven't checked out my full season preview for the Atlanta Falcons, make sure to do so here, and then come back as I dive into the specifics for Sunday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week one game comes with a bit of added drama, as former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is now the offensive coordinator for the Steelers. The former Falcons head coach seems to be keeping a neutral mindset,"... "I’m not really an emotional, petty person...With us playing Atlanta this week or going to Denver next week for Russ, if you’re caught up in that, you’re caught up in the wrong things."
Quarterbacks are the hot topic for both teams, as both have revamped their QB rooms. The Steelers moved on from Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Mitchell Trubisky, adding veterans Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. No matter how you look at it, this is a massive upgrade for the Steelers. The combination of Wilson's veteran experience and Fields' young potential could pose a significant threat to opposing teams.
As for the Falcons, they’ve moved on from the quarterback chaos created under Smith with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Instead, they brought in Kirk Cousins as the starter and drafted Michael Penix Jr. as the backup—a significant upgrade. After two consecutive seasons of inconsistent quarterback play, the Falcons have a borderline top-10 NFL QB in Cousins and a talented rookie in Penix, who could eventually take over as the starter.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, SeptSeptember 8rt Time: 12pmCDT/1pmEDT
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Joe Davis, Greg Olson)
Falcons Uniform Info:
Steelers Team Statistical Rankings (FROM 2O23 SEASON)
Points Per Game:17.8 (28th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 19.7 (8th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 305.4 Yards (25th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 187.8 Yards Per (25th) and 117.6 Yards Per (11th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 343.6 Yards (21st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 224.9 Yards Per (16th) and 118.6 Yards Per (21st)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 37.04% (21st) and 39.18% (21st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 48.89% (25th) and 47.17% (6th)
Penalties: 86 (27th)
Penalty Yardage: 753 Yards (19th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Steelers: Isaac Seumalo (G)
Falcons:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Defense
The Steelers have maintained a consistent defense throughout the Mike Tomlin era, with their worst defensive showing arguably in the 2021 season, when they finished 24th in yards allowed and 20th in points given up. They feature a player who can single-handedly change the tone of a game, T.J. Watt. Watt is coming off what could be considered the second-best season of his career, recording 19.0 sacks and finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. The six-time Pro Bowler is an all-around playmaker, and if the Falcons' offense wants any chance of success, stopping Watt will be essential. Watt has three career sacks in just two games against the Falcons, and Morris knows that keeping away from the ball will be a necessity.
A strong pass rush often pairs with a solid secondary, and Minkah Fitzpatrick leads Pittsburgh's. Despite a shortened 10-game season last year, Fitzpatrick was still selected to the Pro Bowl. He’s one of the top free safeties in the league, leading the NFL with six interceptions in 2022 and allowing only 33 completions on 54 targeted passes. One of the Falcons' bigger weaknesses is their wide receiver corps, and facing an All-Pro safety like Fitzpatrick could pose a significant challenge for their offense.
The Steelers’ defense has a strong chance of spoiling the newly revamped Falcons' offense. Last year, they ranked 8th in points allowed. While they gave up a fair amount of yards, they were highly effective in their own territory. Keeping playmakers like Fitzpatrick and Watt away from the ball will be key to the Falcons' success on offense.
Offense
As mentioned earlier, the Steelers have revamped their QB room with the additions of Wilson and Fields. Wilson was expected to be the Week 1 starter, but just today (Friday), it’s been reported that Fields is more likely to start against the Falcons as Wilson deals with a calf injury. It will be interesting to see how Arthur Smith utilizes either quarterback. Both have scrambling abilities, but Wilson is the more proven passer. The offensive game plan will likely shift significantly if Fields starts, as his strength lies in his mobility and his tendency to move outside the pocket. However, as Falcons fans know, Smith doesn't always call his offense to suit a player's strengths (I had to take at least one shot).
“Arty” Smith wasn't the only Falcon the Steelers acquired, but they brought in more than one off of last year's team. Cordarrelle Patterson, Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, and MyCole Pruitt are all on the Steelers this year, and all were Falcons a season ago on Smith’s team. Jefferson is listed as one of the starting WRs and Miller is listed as his backup, all the while Patterson is listed as the third-string RB and Pruitt is listed as the fourth-string TE, (we all know how much Smith loves his fourth-string TE’s). Patterson, who is also one of the elite return men in all of football, will also be Pittsburgh’s kick returner, but again, I’m sure Smith will give him his fair share of carries even with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in the backfield.
In all seriousness, Smith has been a successful offensive coordinator in the NFL before. He was the OC for the Tennessee Titans in 2019 and 2020. If those years don’t immediately ring a bell, let me remind you: Derrick Henry had his best seasons during that time, including rushing for over 2,000 yards in 2020. Ryan Tannehill also thrived under Smith, throwing for 6,561 yards, 55 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions across those two seasons. Now, Smith has the talents of Harris and Warren in the backfield, along with George Pickens at wide receiver. While it’s easy to throw shade at Smith for his play-calling in Atlanta, fans should remember that he was in control there. Now that he’s working under one of the league's better head coaches, Mike Tomlin, Smith will likely have some restraints, with Tomlin having the final say on personnel packages and other decisions.
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
I don't think I've ever been this excited for a Falcons defense in my entire life. Getting to the quarterback HAS to be a priority this year, so what does Terry Fontenot do? He grabs Matthew Judon from the Patriots to solidify at least one side of the edge. However, just because Judon is now in Atlanta doesn’t mean the Falcons will automatically have an elite pass rush. Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Zach Harrison (interior D-line), and Lorenzo Carter (the other starting edge rusher) will all need to step up. The Steelers ranked 12th in the league last year in QB sack percentage at 6.36%; this is a good offensive line. But with Isaac Seumalo already ruled out, the Falcons' D-line should have some opportunities to disrupt the Steelers' offense on Sunday.
The Falcons’ secondary is also something to watch during Sunday's matchup, especially if Fields is the starter. Atlanta added All-Pro safety Justin Simmons to pair with their other All-Pro safety, Jessie Bates, who was the Falcons' best defensive player last season. A.J. Terrell, also an All-Pro, will join them at cornerback. Terrell, drafted when Morris was on staff in 2020, received a four-year extension two weeks ago. Mike Hughes (2nd CB), Dee Alford (nickel CB), and Richie Grant (backup safety who could rotate with Simmons and Bates) are other key names to watch in the Falcons' secondary.
Raheem Morris and Jimmy Lake will be running the defense this year, both coming from the Rams' staff last season. Morris brings a wealth of experience on the defensive side of the ball, and Lake had success with the Washington Huskies' defense. Despite their experience, I can’t help but feel a bit hesitant. Last year, the Rams' defense finished 19th in points allowed, 20th in yards allowed, and averaged 2.4 sacks per game, ranking 24th in the league—Atlanta finished 21st. However, the Rams effectively stopped the run, finishing 11th in rushing yards allowed. Falcons fans (like me) will have to remember that this is an entirely new defense that Morris and Lake will be coaching, so I’m not assuming this defense will replicate the Rams' results from last year.
(Here's a little video, though, on what we could see from the Falcons' defense.)
Offense
Alright, it's time for my favorite section (hopefully, it stays that way): talking about the Falcons' offense. Kirk Cousins will be taking over signal-calling duties, and even before his first snap, it already feels like a breath of fresh air compared to what Falcons fans have endured over the past couple of seasons. Bringing in Cousins’ veteran presence can significantly benefit the young stars on this offense, like Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. At 36 years old, Cousins coming off an Achilles injury may be concerning. Still, as I mentioned in my season preview, this offense will focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly and utilizing both running backs, Tyler Allgeier and Robinson. It’s also worth mentioning that the Falcons boast a solid offensive line anchored by Jake Matthews and Chris Lindstrom.
Diving deeper into the Falcons' key players, I’m betting on Pitts having a career year. The NFL community was alarmed when they heard that Pitts was limited earlier in the week due to a hamstring injury, but Pitts reassured fans with a tweet saying he’ll “see everyone Sunday.” The last time Pitts had a veteran quarterback throwing to him, he put up 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie year. Now, with Cousins and an offensive coordinator from the Sean McVay coaching tree—who heavily utilizes tight ends—Pitts has all the tools to enter elite TE status. Also, expect to see Pitts split out wide in some packages, as Zac Robinson has already stated that Pitts will be used both at TE and WR.
So, what can we expect from the Falcons' offense on Sunday? First of all, Zac Robinson will be calling plays from the booth. I don’t think that will have a significant impact, as it will give Robinson a better vantage point for play execution. The Falcons were among the top teams in the preseason for running three wide-receiver sets, doing so 94% of the time. Interestingly, the Rams—Robinson’s previous team—ranked first in the league, running three wide receivers 99% of the time. I also expect plenty of carries for both Bijan Robinson and Allgeier, especially with the West Coast offense Robinson plans to run. This offense will be fast-paced and all about getting the ball into the hands of its playmakers—something Falcons fans have been waiting for. Notably, the Steelers run a lot of man coverage, which Cousins has historically excelled against.
Betting Info
Points Spread: PIT +3.5 (-114) | ATL -3.5 (-106)
Moneyline: PIT (+154) | ATL (-184)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-102) | U 42.5 (-120)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, SeptSeptember 8ediction
Both teams are coming off eventful offseasons, and with the added drama of Arthur Smith returning to coach against the Falcons, this promises to be a fun matchup. All bias aside, I like the Falcons in this one. The Steelers bring a tough defense and a very experienced head coach, so I don't expect it to be a blowout. However, Fontenot has assembled a team worthy of playoff contention, and to reach that level, you have to beat the teams that aren’t as strong on paper—especially with the Eagles and Chiefs up next. The “Raheem Regime” kicks off on Sunday, and hopefully, it starts on the right foot with a solid victory over the Steelers.
Final Score: ATL: 23, PIT: 13
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