On the afternoon of Deadline Day, the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins agreed on a trade, with the Marlins sending starter Trevor Rogers to Baltimore and the Orioles sending top prospects Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to Miami.
Rogers is a lefty starter with two years of arbitration before he becomes eligible for free agency. Rogers had an elite 2021 season, posting a 4.3 WAR with a 2.55 FIP, but hasn't quite been able to replicate that production level since, battling injuries and not reaching a single win of value over the past few seasons.
2024 has been a better start for the lefty as he approaches a win of production overall, but his Stuff+ numbers have always left something to be desired. Now, there are different schools of thought on how viable those metrics are for pitchers, and Rogers' ability to locate his pitches speaks to why the Orioles might have felt comfortable parting with 2 of their top prospects.
Unfortunately, his K-rate has taken a massive dip from previous seasons, as he hasn't gotten nearly the chase rate that he usually does. Still, Baltimore is likely hopeful that they can implement their player development system to help Rogers reclaim some of his former value.
It didn't work out last season with Jack Flaherty, but given a longer leash with Rogers' contract, the O's might have higher hopes.
For the Marlins, this deal is a no-brainer, a huge win for a front office that has desperately needed to retool one of the lower-ranked minor league systems in baseball. Newly hired POBO Peter Bendix was dealt a tough hand with a strange-at-best situation with an ownership who can't seem to commit to a vision, but he's off to a solid start, and with reliever Tanner Scott still expected to be dealt, things are only going to get better.
But as for Rogers's return, Norby and Stowers are two quality, potential starters at 2B and CF/corner outfielder who get it done in different ways.
Norby's the biggest get in this deal: a solid bat who just turned 24 and can play second competently and run the bases relatively well, grading out with 50s across the board on MLB.com's prospect rankings, where he was ranked 5th amongst the other elite Orioles prospects.
Stowers, entering his age 27 season next year, shows plus power and enough speed to try and stick around in the center but is more likely to move to a corner as his career progresses. His approach and hit tool leave much to be desired, but he's a fun project that will get at-bats on a bad team.
If you're a Marlins fan, this is a fun deal. The front office is taking advantage of a sellers' market by getting some nice players who can play immediately and give you some hope.
If you're the Orioles, you're a bit concerned that Rogers was the best you could get for these two guys. However, being realistic about the fact that Stowers is an older prospect and Norby's value as a 2B might limit his ceiling a bit should ease your concerns. Plus, Rogers has a couple more years of control, and there's no room for either of the players given up to play at the major league level, a fine deal for both teams.
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