This game is much more than anticipating what the Big Ten championship matchup could be this season. This game will determine the readiness of these two supposedly college football powerhouses for what is to come. The Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks remain undefeated but have played powder puff teams to this point. These two apex predators of college football have seemed to play around with their food by giving their inferior opponents hope of victory in the first half and waiting until the second half to put the game away for their opponents.
Ohio State, for instance, held a 7-0 lead into halftime last Saturday over the Iowa Hawkeyes and ended with a 35-7 victory. They did the same thing with Akron in Week 1 and Marshall in Week 3 when they kept things close before finally breaking away with a large-margin win. Oregon almost lost to Idaho for the first time since 1950 in Week 1 and nearly lost to Boise State the following week. They won both of those games by less than 11 points in each of those games. This cranks it up after a slow start style of winning isn't going to cut it with certain teams as the season runs down, and the competition gets colder. Winter is coming and nears the time of the season when pretenders are exposed, and contenders choose to get stronger.
Game Information
Date: October 13th, Sunday
Time: 7:30 PM EDT
Location: Eugene, Oregon
Stadium: Autzen Stadium
TV Info: NBC
Betting Information
Point Spread: Ohio State -4 (-120) | Oregon +4 (-120)
Moneyline: Ohio State -175 | Oregon +150
Over/Under: O 52.5 (-110) | U 52.5 (-110)
Oregon Ducks
Offense
The Ducks have two big playmakers at the wide receiver position, which will cause Ohio State's pass defense to buckle down. Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson have combined for seven touchdown catches, 577 receiving yards, and an average of 20.2 yards per catch. Traeshon Holden is another wideout who can stretch the field and has been a great third wheel to this dynamic pass-catching duo. As he averages 14.4 yards per reception this year. Their quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, is the FBS leader in completion percentage with 77.8 while averaging 33 pass attempts per game this season. Gabriel has been one of college football's most proficient and careful quarterbacks, throwing just three interceptions in his 12 touchdown passes. The Buckeyes defense has faced nothing but mediocre quarterbacks so far, and Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks' offense will be their first true challenge.
Since their offensive line has been improving hugely since Week 2 and hasn't allowed a sack ever since, running back Jordan James should be destined to get more carries in this matchup to tire out Ohio State's defensive line. James' 552 rushing yards are tied for 22nd-best in the FBS, and his 88 carries for the season are in the bottom tier. Last Friday, he rushed for a season-best 166 yards on 24 carries against Michigan State. If Ohio State shuts down Jordan James, they can't forget that Dillon Gabriel is also helpful in that department. Gabriel also rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on 10 attempts for the past three games combined, and Ohio State's defense has yet to face a quarterback nearly as mobile as Dillon Gabriel.
Defense
Oregon's defense is nearly as tough as Iowa's defense, or maybe more formidable this season. Their defense has allowed one point per game less than the Hawkeyes' defense, with 17.0 points allowed per game. That ranks them 21st in the FBS. The Hawkeyes' defense held the Buckeyes' offense to just 7 points in the first half and let them barely get over the 400-yard mark in total offense. The Ducks have the 10th-best defense in the country in terms of yards per game allowed, with a 263.4 average.
Their defense is also one of the best passing defenses in the country, being ranked the 18th-best defense for permitted passing yards per game with a 162 average. The Buckeyes' passing game is only the 23rd-ranked passing offense, with only 288 passing yards per game. If the Ducks took a note away from the Buckeyes-Hawkeyes game last Saturday, that would be to take away his options and not allow so much space for his running backs to run. Howard has thrown an interception three games in a row, and each interception he threw was due to him staring down his favorite targets to throw to. Oregon's secondary has allowed a 98.4 passer rating (7th best in FBS) and a 53.4 completion percentage (9th best in FBS).
Ohio State Buckeyes
Offense
Columbus, Ohio, is perhaps home to the most talent-stacked offense in the nation, with two-star running backs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. A star transfer quarterback from Kansas State, Will Howard, throws the football to a top NFL draft prospect in Emeka Egbuka and true freshman Jeremiah Smith. This squad is currently the 4th highest-scoring offense in college football, with 46.0 points per game scored.
They are also the 9th-best ranked offense in yards gained per game, with 510.2 yards per game average. They are one of only nine offenses in the FBS that have averaged 500 yards per game or more this season. Iowa was the toughest defense they had faced all season, as they were held to 7 points in the first half. While turning the ball over three times on a failed fourth down conversion, lost fumble, and an interception. They put the game away in the second half with a surge led by wide receivers Smith and Egbuka in a 35-7 win.
They are a much better offense running the football than passing the football. They will face one of the best pass defenses in college football and one of the worst defenses at defending the run. Besides, Boise State's Ashton Jeanty ran for 192 yards and three touchdowns on them in Week 2 at Oregon. Their defense has allowed 101.4 rushing yards per game this season, and the Judkins/Henderson duo has rushed for a combined nine touchdowns, 805 yards, and an average of 15.8 yards per attempt. Will Howard can also add to that rushing carnage of Ohio State's rushing attack, one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in college football for a long time. By the looks of it, Ohio State's offense shouldn't have to throw more than 15 times to beat Oregon's defense and could just run the football at least 20 times.
Defense
This defense that lives in Columbus, Ohio, is leading the FBS in almost every statistical category to be proud of. They are the best defense in total yards allowed (1,012), yards per game (202.4), total points allowed (34), and points per game (6.8). For every other defensive statistic, they're not leading; they're either in the top 10 or top 5. If you can name one thing that this defense does best, that one thing would be getting to the quarterback.
They have two edge rushers who are projected first-round draft picks in JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. They have combined 5.5 sacks through five games and contributed to the defense's 17 total sacks, which stand as the 14th-most in the nation. Dillon Gabriel is coming off a two-interception match last Friday night against Michigan State, and the secondary, led by Caleb Downs and Denzel Burke, will enforce aggression with his pass catchers. The secondary has permitted just a 63.0 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks all year. Ohio State will give Dillon Gabriel the true experience of facing a Big Ten defense and the best defense that will face yet. Despite the Ducks' o-line not allowing a sack for three straight games, they haven't faced a pass rush like the Buckeyes this season.
The Buckeyes held the nation's second-leading rusher, Kaleb Johnson from Iowa, to just 86 rushing yards and 5.7 yards per carry on 15 carries last Saturday. Opponents have run the football 161 times
against the Buckeyes but allowed their opponents to just run for 363 yards combined (2nd-best in the FBS). Oregon is nowhere near the top 25 in most rushing yards gained or rushing yards per game.
Prediction
An Oregon Ducks win over the Buckeyes can become a reality if their quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, can manage the offense with good protection, and their defense can shut down the run, forcing Will Howard to play hero ball. However, those tasks are too tall to complete when the Buckeyes have a dynamic duo to flex with on both sides of the ball. On defense, Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are rushing from opposite ends with safety. Caleb Downs and cornerback Denzel Burke are in the secondary defending the pass, as well as any DB duo in college football. Oregon's offensive line hasn't blocked against anything like this all season, and this will be the stingiest secondary that Dillon Gabriel will face this season.
Judkins and Henderson are sharing carries with Smith and Egbuka embarrassing secondaries on offense. The Ducks' run defense remains one of the bottom-tier defenses in stopping the run, and their secondary has yet to face a pair of pass catchers that are as dynamic as Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. Both defenses have allowed just 5.5 yards per pass attempt (8th and 9th best in the FBS). The winner of this matchup will be the team that can run the football more effectively and can take the football away more than the other.
Final Score: Ohio State Buckeyes 37, Oregon Ducks 26
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