The Oregon Ducks are most likely to finish the regular season and proceed to the Big Ten title game as the top-ranked team in the conference and the nation in their first season, not in the Pac-12. The Indiana Hoosiers are the only other undefeated team in the Big Ten. Their story has been inspiring to witness all season. The Ohio State Buckeyes have redeemed themselves since that win over the Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley and are trying to regain their spot among the Big Ten's best team.
Even though the Hoosiers have been kicking butt, and the Buckeyes have one loss while keeping it too close with some of their inferior opponents this season. Indiana is King Arthur, and one of the traditional dragons of college football in the Ohio State Buckeyes will be in front of them tomorrow at noon. Both teams have something to prove coming into this game. According to Gus Johnson, Indiana wants to prove to America that they have a football team. At the same time, Ohio State wants to prove they need more time to be kicked out of the elite club.
Game Information
Date: November 23, Saturday
Time: 12:00 PM EDT
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Stadium: Ohio Stadium
TV Info: Fox (Gus Johnson & Joe Klatt on the call)
Betting Information
Point Spread: Ohio State -12.5 (-110) | Indiana +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ohio State -450 | Indiana +340
Over/Under: O 52.5 (-105) | U 52.5 (-115)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Offense
Will Howard and the offense must play flawless football to beat the big red machine in the Indiana Hoosiers. This is a dynamic, sometimes dysfunctional offense that tries to do too much. The only thing that stops this offense from really taking off is the brain farts they have. Besides, Howard did not throw the ball short of calling the timeout for a possible game-winning field goal against Oregon. The turnovers against Penn State and their sluggish starts against Akron and Iowa show how schizophrenic this offense gets.
Despite Will Howard having the fourth-best quarterback rating in the nation this season. He has made costly mistakes that have built much, if not little, hope in their opponents of victory over the mighty Buckeyes. Sometimes, he needed to relax and play mistake-free football, not forcing passes that weren't there. Sticking to his running capabilities and conservative passing skills, Howard can make it smooth sailing for the Buckeyes' offense. His first-half performance against the Nittany Lions at Penn State, where he threw two touchdowns and nearly rushed for another before halftime but fumbled the football right before crossing the goal line that could have made the difference in a 20-13 win over Penn State. Mistakes like that must be avoided, especially against an Indiana defense with 17 takeaways for the year so far.
Sometimes, it feels like they need to run the football more, and they have the two most dynamic running backs in the game, Quinshon Jenkins and TreyVeon Henderson. The Hoosiers' defense is the best in the FBS in terms of rushing yards allowed. However, they have yet to face an offense that totals more than 160 rushing yards per game this season. The Buckeyes average 183.8 rushing yards per game. The toughest rushing offense they have faced so far rushes for 155.5 yards per game, and that was the Michigan Wolverines, which was the closest game they have played all season, ending in a 5-point victory.
Defense
This is the number one defense in their conference and in the FBS in points allowed per game this season—an average of 10.3 points permitted per game. Most importantly, this defense hasn't allowed many touchdowns in the red zone this season. Their total yards allowed per game average of 250.8 is the second-best in the FBS behind the Texas Longhorns and the best in the Big Ten conference—the number one total defense in all college football.
They will face an offense that has scored the third most total points in the FBS this season. For the Buckeyes to slow down the big red machine in the Indiana Hoosiers is to slow down the production of Kurtis Rourke. If they took notes from their last game against Michigan, they should have recognized the pressure the Wolverines put on Kurtis Rourke. They sacked Rourke 4 times that game and knew his every throw. Watching that game, you realized Kurtis Rourke would stare down his first option. For instance, the interception he threw was on a slant run by his wideout Elijah Sarratt, where he stared him down the whole time, and Michigan's cornerback Zeke Berry jumped in front of the pass as if he already knew that he was throwing there.
Suppose you think Michigan's secondary is good. Ohio State's secondary is superb in that case, except for their terrible outing with Oregon. Denzel Burke, Caleb Downs, Lathan Ransom, Sonny Styles, Jordan Hancock, and Davison Igbinosun are true ball hawks with a combined six interceptions and 20 batted balls among them this season. Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are still college football's best pass-rush duo, with a combined eight sacks for the season. Get Kurtis Rourke off of his game early, and they will destroy the rhythm of this Hoosiers' offense. This defense averages three sacks per game, going against an offense that allows 1.10 sacks per game.
Indiana Hoosiers
Offense
For their quarterback Kurtis Rourke to bypass Ohio State's pass defenders with his throws, he should have taken notes from the Oregon Ducks game instead of playing it safe with them as Penn State did. He and the Hoosiers' offense should take advantage of them early and often. That is how they are the second-highest-scoring offense in the nation, with 43.9 points per game. The least they scored in a game this season is 20 against the Michigan Wolverines, and 17 of those points were scored in the first half, leading 17-3 at halftime. Their win over the Wolverines ended 20-15.
The offense must keep their foot on the gas they want to keep up with the Buckeyes on the scoreboard or run them off the field. Avoid mistakes because the Buckeyes are not only great at taking the ball away from you. They are great at capitalizing on takeaways, like how a baseball team wins games by getting on base. The Indiana Hoosiers should focus on gaining positive yards and keeping the chains moving against a defense that has yet to be good at stopping offenses on third down lately. Indiana has the ninth-best offense in third-down conversion percentage (.491), and Ohio State has the 17th-best third-down percentage defense (.312).
This season, they have a quarterback with the second-best pass efficiency in college football with 182.7. Kurtis Rourke's 88.1 quarterback rating is also the second-best among FBS quarterbacks this season. In his past two games returning from injury, Rourke passed for six touchdowns, 469 passing yards, and just one interception combined while having a completion percentage of 60 or better in each of those games. Kurtis Rourke has a 21:4 touchdown to interception ratio for the season, and this is a quarterback who has spent his five previous years in college playing football in the MAC for the Ohio Bobcats. This is also an offense that is the fourth best just behind Ohio State in the conference at running the football with a 176.7 rushing yards per game average and the second best in the Big Ten at total yards gained per game with a 453.2 yards per game average while only allowing 11 sacks all season.
Defense
Only the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Minnesota Gophers have more takeaways in the Big Ten than the Indiana Hoosiers for a game that could go down to the wire and witness a lot of fourth-down gambles before the fourth quarter. The Hoosiers have the second-best fourth-down percentage defense in the FBS (.250). Their defense has yet to permit many first downs to their opponents, with just 153 permitted first downs, tied with Notre Dame for 5th-most in the FBS. Ohio State's 218 first downs converted this season is tied with Alabama for 47th-best in the FBS.
Ohio State has faced many defenses that are as tough as Indiana, like Iowa, Oregon, and, last but not least, Penn State. However, only the Oregon Ducks are as dynamic on offense as on defense, just like the Indiana Hoosiers. In other words, Oregon is the only other well-balanced team that Ohio State has faced this season and couldn't handle the likes of Dillon Gabriel. The Penn State game was a very losable game for the Buckeyes, with a thrown pick-six giving the Nittany Lions a 10-0 head start and a fumble by Will Howard that should have turned into six points for the Nittany Lions without Harrison Wallace II dropping that potential turning point score before halftime.
Ohio State is just the 12th-highest scoring offense in the nation, while Indiana possesses the 7th-best scoring defense. Ohio State is the 31st-best passing offense, with 267.5 passing yards per game. Indiana has allowed just 183.3 passing yards per game. Their zone coverage defense would be ideal for Ohio State's dynamic wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith. Two guys that you should not allow much free green for them run ahead and make amazing things happen. This would explain why the Indiana Hoosiers are the Big Ten leaders in sacks with 31.
Prediction
For the Buckeyes defense, Oregon was the most methodical offense they have faced all year. They haven't faced an offense more explosive than the Indiana Hoosiers. The secondary school in Ohio State has been suspected since the loss to the Oregon Ducks. Kurtis Rourke will do what they can to take advantage of their secondary early and often, just like with the other defenses they humiliated. Will Howard be expected to match him blow for blow with the help of his superb running game and dynamic wide receivers? This is another tough Big Ten defense they will face, as this Hoosiers' defense hasn't allowed their opponent to reach 20 points in a game yet. But this Buckeyes offense will be the best offense they will face yet. The biggest problem with Ohio State's offense is turnovers, and Indiana knows how to turn defense into offense. The determining factor of who will win this game will be who wins the third-down battle, and the Hoosiers have a much better third down and first down offense than the Buckeyes.
Final Score: Indiana Hoosiers 37, Ohio State Buckeyes 28
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