I can't say I'm looking forward to getting up before 9:00 AM to watch this game, but we will be there. The Patriots' last international expedition didn't go well in Germany, and now they are in the British Isles, specifically London, England, to take on their unofficial home squad, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
While I believe the Jaguars are one of a handful of teams, the Patriots are better than they are at the moment, and it isn't talent-related. The Jaguars actually have a good collection of players; the problem is they don't really play team football, and they've consistently displayed no heart in an early-season stretch that will almost certainly cost Doug Pederson his job. How they gagged that Week 1 game in Miami, how they didn't show in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, and last weekend against the Bears in London all feel pretty indicative of where Jacksonville is.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 20
Start Time: 9:00 EST
Location: London, England
Stadium: Wembley Stadium
TV Info: NFL Network/ABC (Chris Rose and Joe Thomas on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants
Jaguars Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 18.8 (22nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 29.7 (31st)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 319.5 Yards (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 203 Yards Per (20th) and 116.5 Yards Per (19th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 390 Yards (31st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 276.7 Yards Per (32nd) and 113.3 Yards Per (11th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 30.4% (28th) and 44.3% (25th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 47.6% (22nd) and 76.2% (32nd)
Penalties: 38 (13th)
Penalty Yardage: 281 Yards (t-18th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Jaguars: N/A
Patriots: Vederian Lowe
Jacksonville Jaguars
Defense
One of the key reasons the Jaguars have the worst pass defense in football through six weeks would be that their top corner, Tyson Campbell, hasn't played since Week 1. Luckily for them, he's back practicing, and he's trending towards suiting up. Even if so, Evan Lazar dropped the nugget that the Jaguars are also the worst team at defending slot receivers so far (Pop Douglas fans rejoice) and have let up a league-high four touchdowns to tight ends this year, so to me, there's your blueprint on how to attack them.
Another reason for the lack of success in the pass-defending game is that a lack of pass rush has forced new DC Ryan Nielsen. Surprisingly, former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker has been super productive this year, as has Josh Hines-Allen, but the Jags lack a ton of pass-rush juice behind them. Arik Armstead, who Jacksonville got via him being a cap casualty in San Francisco, and the next best player would be Roy Robertson Harris, who has a pair of sacks and eight pressures, but he was just traded a mtter of days ago to Seattle.
That lack of pass-rush production, in tandem with the fact they've gone from a zone-heavy scheme to a man-heavy scheme when they don't have reliable enough corners without Campbell and cannot rush the passer consistently enough to help out the secondary, is simply a recipe for failure. Jacksonville's run defense was largely good outside last weekend, letting D'Andre Swift nearly crack 100 yards on less than 20 carries, but this pass defense should be exploited until the cows come home.
Offense
Depressing is the first word that comes to mind when I watch this Jaguars offense. This is a unit that, by the way, features Trevor Lawrence, Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Tank Bigsby, and Travis Etienne, and you won't find a more life-draining display of offensive football save for the Cleveland Browns. Lawrence has certainly not been his best, but the real problem is offensive coordinator Press Taylor, who's the scorn of Jags fans everywhere, even more so than Doug Pederson. I'd be here all day if I listed all of their issues, but they're on an 11-game stretch without an opening drive touchdown dating back to last season; they sit bottom three in time of possession and simply aren't producing good enough in the red zone. Again, there are a ton of more problems here, but most of them can be linked to Taylor. Just watch the design of this one play from last weekend, for instance.
What I go to right away is that this team has BTJ and Gabe Davis, and now Evan Engram off injury, and are ice cold when it comes to red zone production. A 47% hit rate with that kind of a box-out offense you can roll out, plus an emerging Tank Bigsby on the ground, is borderline inexcusable. Why Doug Pederson opted to give up play-calling duties, I can't really say, but it very well is the reason he loses his job here, potentially as soon as next week.
While I believe a guy like Evan Engram has the potential to give the Patriots issues on Sunday, and I don't know what their game plan is to match up with Gabe Davis' size on the boundary with Christian Gonzalez likely shadowing BTJ, I don't think this unit, let alone the entire team, has the want-to-win factor you'd want to see with their coaching staffs' jobs on the line. Once again, Duval County's outlook is very bleak and we're not even at the halfway point.
New England Patriots
Defense
The bend but don't break strategy did the Patriots wonders last weekend....for all of about 30 minutes and 15 seconds. While the Patriots did a good job in a box on third down defensively (4-11 for Houston), Houston scored more points on those four drives (24) than the Patriots did the entire game. Always remember, getting stops is one thing; timely stops are notably more important. I touched on this earlier in the week, but this team needs Jonathan Jones to step up because he was a liability defending in breakers vs. the Texans.
Raekwon McMillan was another highly suspect defender, and has been for a few weeks now; in his case, defending the run. He held responsibility, partially or fully, on both of the 50-plus yards runs the Patriots gave up, and while you can say the Patriots did a good job vs. the run outside of those two plays, lacking gap integrity as they did on those Mixon and Pierce runs cannot happen. Tank Bigsby, assuming he's getting the lion's share of carries, is no joke. He's averaged over six yards per carry in both games, he's hit at least 10 carries, and is averaging eight-plus per on runs outside the tackles. However, they can take him out of this game, do it.
Another interesting thing to note about this matchup is that the Jags are surprisingly just on the cusp of the top 10 in the least pressures given up but have allowed the sixth most sacks in the league with 17. It's a broken record that will continue to be bashed in with a hammer, but someone has to complement Keion White in the pass-rush department. Whether that ends up being Joshua Uche, Deatrich Wise, etc., doesn't matter, but someone has to make life difficult for Trevor Lawrence in the pocket. Honestly, if things don't improve, I'm all for trying to add someone who could be a long-term piece at the deadline.
Offense
Much to my surprise, Rhamondre Stevenson practiced Friday after DNP'ing on Wednesday and Thursday, and it sounds like he'll be back on Sunday bearing anything unexpected. Great news, considering how inefficient the Patriots ran the ball last week. More concerning than anything, the Texans weren't loaded up the box much at all, and a three-man unit of Antonio Gibson, Terrell Jennings, and JaMycal Hasty only put up 44 yards on 21 carries. If the Dolphins game was any indication, I imagine Stevenson's return will greatly improve things.
The Offensive Line Shuffle is still playing on repeat, unfortunately. Vederian Lowe, who was surprisingly great against the Dolphins and against Houston right up until his ankle got tangled from behind on a Will Anderson sack (not on him), is out for this week, which forces Mike Onwenu back out to tackle, and from right to left it'll be him, a returning Layden Robinson, Ben Brown, Michael Jordan, and Demontrey Jacobs. I am very interested in seeing how Layden Robinson holds up after the injury. He was brutal against San Francisco, but I'm not willing to give up on him (or Caedan Wallace) this quick.
Now, what am I hoping to see out of Drake Maye in start No. 2? The biggest thing would be for him not to play as tight as he did in this first half before that touchdown drive. Once he got settled in, he was as good as you'd hope, but the quicker the Patriots can get him into a groove, the better. Get some quick hitters over the middle to Pop Douglas in the early script and take things from there as far as the passing attack goes.
Betting Info
Points Spread: JAX -6 (-112) | NE +6 (-108)
Moneyline: HOU (-265) | NE (+215)
Over/Under: O 41.5 (-112) | U 41.5 (-108)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, October 18
Can't say I get the Jags laying six points when their only win this season was by a field goal, but sure. Neither of these teams are reliable ATS or moneyline through six games, and my gut says Pats both ways and the over so do with that what you will.
Prediction
As suspect as the Patriots have looked these last five weeks, I think the Jaguars are comfortably the worst team in the league, and that's entirely an effort/passion related reason and not talent, which says a lot. They're a lifeless football team begging to be put out of its misery, and the Patriots have no excuse but to oblige them. Also, preferably blow them out with Jags/AEW CEO Tony Khan there, who continues to put Chris Jericho on my television screen in my glorious Wrestling Federation on a weekly basis.
Final Score: New England Patriots 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
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