Before the season started, people probably looked at a Week 16 Dolphins-49ers matchup in Miami as one of the season's most exciting games. The 49ers were the favorites in the NFC, and the Dolphins were widely seen as a playoff team. Things haven't entirely played out that way, and instead, both teams sit at 6-8, with the playoffs unlikely.
The 49ers are decimated by injuries and will make many essential contract decisions this offseason. Brock Purdy is still on his rookie deal and makes under one million dollars per season, but this offseason would be the time to pay him. It's been a wildly disappointing season, considering the Niners have been perennial contenders for a few seasons.
The Dolphins need a miracle to make the playoffs. Still, the team isn't just going to roll over, and despite the 49ers not being over .500 this season, it would be a nice win on the résumé. Who will win the showdown in Miami?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, December 22th
Start Time: 4:25 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: Blue Top, White Pants
San Francisco 49ers 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 22.4 (15th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.9 (17th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 365.1 (8th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 231.6 Yards Per Game (10th) and 133.5 Yards Per Game (8th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 298.8 (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 181 Yards Per Game (2nd) and 117.8 Yards Per Game (15th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 42.33% (10th) and 42.46% (25th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 52.94% (23rd) and 67.39% (30th)
Penalties: 83 (26th)
Penalty Yardage: 638 Yards (29th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: LS Blake Ferguson, WR Dee Eskridge (Doubtful), WR Jaylen Waddle (Doubtful)
49ers: RB Isaac Guerendo, LT Trent Williams
San Francisco 49ers
Defense
Last season, the 49ers' defense was a force to be reckoned with. A lineup just filled with studs. From Nick "Bootstraps" Bosa and Chase Young on the defensive line, Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner in the linebacking corp, to Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward in the secondary. It was one of the most loaded defensive rosters we've seen in recent years.
This season hasn't been the same. Sure, their metrics aren't too bad, but they lost some of the pieces, as mentioned above, to free agency and others to injury. The biggest losses have been Bosa, who returned last week but is listed as questionable for this game, and Greenlaw, who also returned after suffering a torn Achilles in the Super Bowl.
Fred Warner has reportedly been playing with a fractured bone in his ankle, but that hasn't stopped him from being one of the NFL's best defensive players. In the past month, the 49ers have given up 35 points to Buffalo and 38 to Green Bay, both on the road. They will need a better performance against another offense that plays much better at home.
Offense
The Niners' offense was almost as stacked as the defense last season. Christian McCaffrey enjoyed a historic season as a running back. Brock Purdy was in the MVP race, and the receivers were solid. This season, injuries caught up to them. Arguably, the most significant loss was not any skill position player but left tackle Trent Williams, who has only played seven games this season and is unlikely to play again.
Williams is a three-time all-pro and the best left tackle in the NFL. Behind him, the running back situation is also a mess. Christian McCaffrey missed nine weeks with an Achilles injury, returned and played for four games, and is now on injured reserve again with a PCL sprain. His backup, Jordan Mason, did a fine job of replacing him for most of the season, but he is now done with an ankle injury. Enter rookie Isaac Guerendo, who has an impressive size and speed combo at 6'0", 221 pounds, and a 4.33 40-yard dash. Guerendo was the starter for two games but has been ruled out of this game with hamstring and foot injuries. So the Niners are down to their fourth-string running back, Patrick Taylor Jr., and have to elevate players from their practice squad for this game.
Potentially even more baffling than their running back situation has been the receivers. Brandon Aiyuk held out of training camp until he got the contract he wanted. Eventually, he got it, and Aiyuk played some of his career's worst football until he tore his ACL in Week 7. Even worse than Aiyuk has been Deebo Samuel, who hasn't had a game with more than 22 receiving yards since Week 11 and has a drop problem but is complaining about getting touches. The only bright spots on the offense are George Kittle and Jauan Jennings. They will be the main threats on Sunday, and they are the ones the Dolphins need to zero in on.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
By all means, the defense played a solid game against Houston. Holding the Texans to 20 points and 181 yards at home is no easy task. Holding Joe Mixon to 1.9 yards per carry is also a win for the Miami defense, but they couldn't stop Nico Collins in the end zone.
Bradley Chubb has been practicing for a few weeks now, but it's unlikely that the Dolphins will risk him due to their current situation. That means more game time for Chop Robinson, who, despite being drafted as a project, has enjoyed a solid rookie season. Robinson will get after the deceptively elusive Brock Purdy, who likes to move around in the pocket.
Jauan Jennings has taken over the WR1 role, so Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller will have their hands full with him. Jennings shifts between the outside and the slot, so seeing who follows him around will be interesting. If the defense can force some turnovers, the Dolphins should feel confident about winning this game. This Niners offense doesn't have the same firepower at the moment, but they'll be fighting for their lives.
Offense
The most significant news for the offense is that Jaylen Waddle is unlikely to play. He left the game against Houston with a knee injury and didn't return. He didn't practice all week and is officially listed as doubtful. The biggest beneficiary of Waddle's injury will be rookie Malik Washington.
Washington is a sixth-round pick out of Virginia who impressed during training camp. He caught a season-high five passes for 52 yards last week after Waddle went down. Washington is slight; he's listed at 5'8" and 192 pounds, but he makes up for it with speed. Expect Washington to be heavily involved in the motion game and to get a few end arounds.
The 49ers couldn't stop Kyren Williams on the ground last week, so hopefully, Achane and Mostert can do the same. Achane has a touchdown in his last four home games, and the offense generally has put up points when playing at home. Just expect them to avoid the middle of the field as much as possible because Fred Warner will be waiting.
Betting Info
Points Spread: SF +1.5 (-110) | MIA -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: SF (+100) | MIA (-120)
Over/Under: O 44.5 (-110) | U 44.5 (-110)
Lines via FanDuel as of Friday, December 20th
The books love the 49ers; they've been favored in 12 of 14 games this season, but they're 5-7 in those games. This game is basically a pick 'em; the 49ers are favored by a point on some books but not on FanDuel. I think the Dolphins win this game, so I'll take them -1.5.
Prediction
The 49ers are a mess. They still have lots of talent, but the team is missing too many pieces to win this game, in my opinion. The Dolphins play much better at home and aren't as depleted.
Final Score: Dolphins 26, 49ers 20
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