Atlanta enters a three-week series where they will face each NFC South team, starting with none other than the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. I’m sure I’ve mentioned this before, but my dislike for the Saints is almost as strong as a Cubs fan’s dislike for the St. Louis Cardinals. Years and years of dealing with Drew Brees and Sean Payton just flat-out bothers me. But hey, what can I say? A new era has started for both teams, which means a new page has turned in this long-standing rivalry.
As always, I’ll dig deeper into the opposing team below, but New Orleans is off to a good start this year.
Granted, they’ve played a Bryce Young-led Panthers team and a feeble Cowboys defense and didn’t look their best against the Eagles—a game they ultimately lost. However, this Saints offense is something to take note of. We're seeing a young prodigy calling plays, Klint Kubiak, who comes from the Shanahan coaching tree and is the son of Gary Kubiak. Alvin Kamara has had a respectable start to his season, and Derek Carr seems to be one of the better QBs in the league at the start of the 2024 campaign. Injuries may impact the Saints' offense, but the talent has been evident even then, making it another tough test for the Dirty Bird defense.
The Saints-Falcons rivalry has a long history, and Sunday will mark the 110th time these teams have faced off. The regular-season series is currently tied at 55-55, so whoever wins on Sunday will take the lead and gain a ton of bragging rights. Atlanta will be wearing their phenomenal red-helmet throwback uniforms, and if you forgot what happened last year when the Falcons wore their throwbacks at home against the Saints, take a look below to jog your memory.
Head to Head: 110 games, Series is tied: 55-55
Last Mathcup: 1-7-2024 NO won: 48-17
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Start Time: 12:00CT/1:00ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma)
Falcons Uniform Info:
Opposing Team Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 34.3 (2nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 14.7 (5th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 343.3 Yards (9th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 190.3 Yards Per (21st) and 153.0 Yards per (6th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 335.3 (21st)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 236.0 Yards Per (25th) and 99.3 (8th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 52.94% (2nd) and 35.14% (17th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 75.00% (3rd) and 25.00% (3rd)
Penalties Offense/Defense: 6.0 per game (7th) and 5.7 per game (21st)
Penalty Yardage Offense/Defense: 53.3 yards per game (18th) and 50.3 yards per game (20th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Monday
Saints: Demario Davis (LB), A.T Perry (WR),
Falcons: Kalen McGary (RT), Drew Dalman (C-IR)
New Orleans Saints
Defense
Starting with the Saints' defense, it’s definitely an interesting group. They rank 5th overall in points allowed but are 21st in the league in yards given up. The reason? Only a quarter of their opponents' red zone appearances have resulted in touchdowns. Atlanta is catching a huge break, with veteran linebacker Demario Davis ruled out, and D’Marco Jackson is listed as his backup.
So, with Davis out, who else should Atlanta keep an eye on? Obviously, Tyrann Mathieu is a force that needs to be contained. Mathieu already has three turnovers this season—two interceptions and one forced fumble with a recovery—which makes him a key part of Atlanta’s game plan. New Orleans' defense is also second in total turnovers (7) and tied for fifth in sacks (11). Alontae Taylor, the starting nickel corner, leads the team in sacks with 3.5 (three of which came against Carolina), while Carl Granderson and Bryan Bresee have 3.0 sacks each. Chase Young has only recorded 0.5 sacks, and Cam Jordan has yet to register one, but both are names to watch. The Saints' defensive line could create significant problems for Atlanta, with the Falcons missing two starting offensive linemen.
Overall, the Saints' defense has been good, but some weaknesses have been exposed—especially in last week's loss against the Eagles. New Orleans is in the top 10 for rushing yards allowed, but Saquon Barkley managed to run for 147 yards on 17 carries (8.6 avg), including a 65-yard touchdown. Dallas Goedert also had 10 catches for 170 yards, including a 61-yard reception. I think Atlanta can build off what the Eagles did by using Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts in similar roles. The Saints also gave up 311 passing yards to Jalen Hurts and 293 passing yards to Dak Prescott in Week 2. I would look for the Falcons to establish the run game and then capitalize with play-action passes to Kyle Pitts.
Offense
Am I going to say we should take the Saints' offense with a grain of salt? Not necessarily, because if I do, they’ll probably drop 40 points on the Falcons. However, both Dallas and Carolina’s defenses rank near the bottom of the league in points and yards allowed. Additionally, the Saints didn’t look good against the Eagles, managing only 12 points. In other injury news, both Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara are listed as “questionable.” Both are key playmakers for the Saints' offense. Starting guard Cesar Ruiz has been ruled out as well. Atlanta could catch a huge break if both Olave and Kamara are limited or unable to play.
The Saints have been running the ball effectively, ranking 6th in the league, Kamara being the main factor in that success. If Kamara can’t play, Jamaal Williams is the listed backup, and I’m sure the Saints will try to maintain their rushing trend—especially if Olave is out as well. Rashid Shaheed has also become a primary target for Carr, hauling in 7 of his 14 receptions for 169 yards and two touchdowns, both on completions over 50 yards. The consistent force in the Saints' offense has been Derek Carr, who is among the league leaders in touchdowns, yards per attempt, and passer rating. This explosive Saints offense could significantly threaten the Falcons' defense, especially given Atlanta’s lack of a consistent pass rush. The Falcons must contain the Saints' running game and limit explosive downfield plays.
Like their defense, I believe the Saints' offense has its strengths and could sustain them throughout the season. I’m also a fan of Klint Kubiak as their play-caller. However, the Falcons' defense will be their first true test. Atlanta allows a fair amount of yards but has kept opponents out of the end zone well. The Saints are also near the top of the league in explosive play rate at 10.2%, making this a compelling matchup between the Saints' offense and the Falcons' secondary.
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
Atlanta’s safety duo, Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons, has been the focal point of the Falcons' defense. We’ve noticed a pattern of opposing offenses avoiding deep passes over the middle of the field and opting for a lot of short drag routes instead. Both safeties have recorded interceptions closer to the boundary rather than in the middle of the field. However, there need to be more impactful results from this Falcons' defense. Atlanta has only three sacks on the season, ranking 31st in the league, and the team has yet to force a fumble recovery this year.
We haven’t seen more production from the Falcons' defense because of the conservative approach that Jimmy Lake has employed, with a lot of dropback coverages. This makes sense, especially when you have players like Simmons and Bates anchoring the secondary. But when will we see more aggression from Lake and the Falcons' defense? Sacks and QB pressures are a must. Derek Carr has only been sacked three times this season, but with two starting linemen out for the Saints, the Falcons could finally increase their sack total.
Since Nate Landman went on IR, Troy Anderson and Kaden Elliss have done a solid job holding down the ILB position. Both linebackers lead the team in tackles but haven’t contributed much in other statistical categories. I would love to see them get more involved and play a part in adding an aggressive element to the Falcons' defense. Grady Jarrett was slowed down last week against a tough Chiefs interior offensive line, but I expect him to make an impact on the Falcons’ pass rush this week, considering the Saints’ injuries along the offensive line.
Offense
Let’s start things off simply: Find ways to run the DAMN ball effectively. This offense thrives on the run, and it’s Zac Robinson’s job to figure out how to move the ball downfield via the ground game—whether that’s with Bijan Robinson or Tyler Allgeier. The Chiefs did a good job last week of shutting down the Falcons' “bread and butter” outside zone/stretch plays, which stalled Atlanta’s run game. Although the Falcons were able to throw for 230 yards, this team cannot be limited to just 3.3 yards per carry. Again, this offense excels when they run the ball efficiently, so Robinson must prioritize that on Sunday.
That said, I love the wide receiver duo of Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Cousins has heavily targeted both receivers, and he seems to be finding his rhythm with them. As I mentioned earlier, the Saints have given up a considerable amount of passing yards over the past few weeks, and Atlanta’s passing attack wasn’t bad last week either (20/29 for 230 yards). We’ve seen slow and steady improvement in the Falcons' passing game. If they can establish a good blend of both the run and pass, the Falcons should be able to find success against the Saints' defense.
However, Atlanta's third-down efficiency is the most crucial factor for success on Sunday. The Falcons have a third-down conversion rate of just 22.22%, which ranks 29th in the league. I said this in my recap last week: to be a top football team, you have to win high-leverage situations. The Saints' defense ranks 17th in the league in third-down stops, so this will be a long game for the Falcons if they can't improve in that area. Robinson must find ways to avoid 3rd-and-long situations and ensure the Falcons can consistently convert on third downs throughout the game. Atlanta will have to deploy their offense without Drew Dalman and Kaleb McGary. McGary was able to return to practice this week but was ultimately ruled out, and Dalman will hit the IR and will miss at least four games. With that said, Ryan Neuzil will take over the center position, and Strom Norton will have responsibilities at the right tackle.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NO +1.5 (-110) | ATL -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NO (+110) | ATL (-130)
Over/Under: O 42.5 (-105) | U 42.5 (-115)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, September 127th
Prediction
Divisional games are the most important, and with the Falcons having the opportunity to face each divisional opponent over the next three weeks, this is a huge chance to gain ground in the NFC South. Both teams are dealing with some injuries, but it seems the Saints are slightly more banged up. That’s not my deciding factor, but I’m still leaning towards the Falcons in this one. Coming off a tough loss against the Chiefs, Atlanta is hungry to get back into the win column, and doing it against the (S)’Aints would bring a lot of satisfaction to the city of Atlanta. I don't think it’s going to be a blowout by any means; I’m predicting a Younghoe Koo game-winning kick type of finish. We just haven’t seen enough consistency from the Falcons' offense to expect them to win by more than four points. But hopefully, that narrative changes on Sunday, and the Falcons get back to .500.
Final Score: ATL: 24, NO: 21
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