A ton of momentum has built up in the Falcons' locker room after their shocking win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. It was by no means a perfect win, nor do I think it should be viewed as a game that will turn heads toward the Falcons' success. However, with the drastic improvements made from week one to week two, the ship seems to be at least headed in the right direction, and the building blocks seem to be in place to start moving in the right direction. Now, the focus shifts to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are currently 2-0, but one win came by the toe of Ravens tight end Isiah Likely, and the other was aided by a late penalty that set up a game-winning field goal. Granted, both wins were against the Ravens and Bengals, but it seems the Chiefs are off to a slower start than usual. I'll get into the details below, but even with this "slower" start, the Falcons' defense will arguably face its toughest test of the season against the combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Last week, I mentioned Atlanta's previous Monday Night record. This week, however, will mark the Falcons' first appearance on Sunday Night Football since 2019, when they technically had two appearances.
The first was against the Eagles, where they won 24-20 — I'm sure Falcons fans remember that walk-off touchdown. The second appearance was on Thanksgiving Thursday, with the SNF crew calling the game. Atlanta lost that one to the Saints, 26-18. Either way, it's been a long time since the Falcons had the "prime" primetime slot, and what's better than having their first Sunday night game since 2019 against the defending champs at the Benz?
Head to Head: 10 games, Chiefs lead the series: 7-3
Last Mathcup: 12-27-2020, KC won: 17-14
Game Info
Date: Sunday, September 22nd
Start Time: 7:20CT/8:20ET
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Info: NBC (Mike Tirico, Chris Collinsworth)
Falcons Uniform Info:
Chiefs Team Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 26.5 (6th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.5 (19th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 319.5 Yards (15th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 209.0 Yards Per (14th) and 110.5 Yards per (19th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 386.0 (29th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 256.5 Yards Per (31st) and 129.5(17th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 29.41% (26th) and 40.74% (21st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 40.00% (20th) and 37.50% (12th)
Penalties: 5.0 per game (7th)
Penalty Yardage: 44.5 yards per game (12th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco (RB-IR), Hollywood Brown (WR-IR)
Falcons:
Kansas City Chiefs
Defense
To start the year, the Chiefs' defense has struggled. Granted, this was against the Ravens and Bengals' offenses, so I’m trying to take it with a grain of salt. However, being 29th in the league regarding yards allowed per game is something to watch. Most of their issues stem from defending the pass, as they rank second-to-last in passing yards allowed per game. Their run defense has been more solid, ranking 17th in rushing yards allowed per game. It's also interesting to note that the Chiefs' combined tackle leaders are both in the secondary — Jaylen Watson with 17 and Justin Reid with 16. While this isn’t a huge red flag, it's something to watch, as it suggests that runs may be getting to the second level.
Despite their struggles defending the pass, this Chiefs' defense still features five-time Pro Bowler Chris Jones. Jones is coming off two consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks and already has one sack in two games this year. The 30-year-old veteran is also a force against the run, having recorded double-digit tackles for loss in the last two seasons. Unlike T.J. Watt, who single-handedly destroyed the Falcons' offense in Week 1, Jones plays from the interior defensive line. However, like Watt, Jones can be a game-wrecker and halt any momentum the Falcons' offense gains. If the Falcons' interior offensive line can’t contain Jones, it could be a long game, potentially resembling their performance against the Steelers.
In Week 1, the Ravens lit up the Chiefs' defense. Lamar Jackson threw for 273 yards and ran for 122 yards, while Isaiah Likely had 111 receiving yards as a tight end. In Week 2 against the Bengals, Joe Burrow threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns, and Mike Gesicki had 91 receiving yards as a tight end. Notice a trend? For one, Atlanta needs to throw the ball and throw it effectively. Jackson had 41 attempts, and Burrow had 36, so surpassing 30 passing attempts should be a priority. Secondly (and I’ll dive into this more below), Kyle Pitts needs to see a significant number of targets this week. The Chiefs have struggled to defend tight ends, and Pitts could continue that trend.
Offense
Ever since Patrick Mahomes took over the Kansas City Chiefs offense in 2018, they’ve arguably been the most dominant unit in the league. The Reid-Mahomes combination will become one of the greatest coach-QB duos in NFL history. Even without a star-studded supporting cast, they’ve still managed to be one of the league's better offenses early this season. However, with Isiah Pacheco’s injury and a slow start from star tight end Travis Kelce, the Falcons' defense could make a statement come Sunday night.
With Pacheco hitting IR, the Chiefs will rely on a combination of Carson Steele and Samaje Perine in the backfield. Pacheco was a workhorse for the Chiefs' offense, with 34 carries and seven receptions in the season's first two weeks. Steele has only nine carries for 27 yards, while Perine has no rushes but has caught two passes for just 13 yards. Neither running back has reached the end zone this year. Given Steele and Perine's limited action so far, it will be bewitching to see how Reid utilizes the rushing game. Kareem Hunt was added to the Chiefs' practice squad, but according to Reid, he will not be activated for Sunday.
So, the Chiefs have an "underqualified" RB room; Mahomes is ranked 15th in QBR, has thrown three interceptions in two games, and Travis Kelce has only four receptions for 39 yards so far this season. Am I banking on the Falcons' defense to shut down the Chiefs' offense? No, not at all. This is still Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about — a player who can single-handedly dismantle an opposing defense. So, there’s no expectation of a “dominant performance” from Atlanta’s defense. While the Chiefs' lack of weapons and early turnovers are a bit concerning, Mahomes still has his favorite targets in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Shutting them down will be necessary for the Falcons' defense, and applying pressure on Mahomes should be a top priority.
Atlanta Falcons
Defense
A recurring theme in these previews and recaps has been discussing the Falcons' pass rush and the need for players other than Matt Judon and Grady Jarrett to create pressure. Well, this is the week where there MUST be a significant pass rush to defend Mahomes properly. They can't allow him as much time to throw as they did against Jalen Hurts a week ago. After more profound research, it turns out the Falcons' defense has recorded the second-highest pressure rate despite not blitzing all that often. However, I think this stat might be a little too good to be true, as Atlanta has allowed the highest amount of time for the opposing QB to throw at a little more than 3.2 seconds.
Again, Jarrett and Judon are the only pass rushers to record sacks this season, with both tallying 1.5 sacks. Beyond that, there hasn’t been much else from the Falcons' pass rush. Kaden Ellis (a linebacker) and Eddie Goldman (listed as Grady Jarrett’s backup but played 27 snaps last week) are the only defenders to record a QB hit. Jimmy Lake and Raheem Morris need to find a solution to generate more pressure. Of the 14 total pressures the Falcons have generated, only two came from a four-man front, while the other 12 came from formations with five or more players on the D-line. That strategy likely won’t work against Mahomes and the Chiefs on Sunday night.
I’d prefer to see more dime or nickel packages against Mahomes, but the Falcons still need to find a way to apply pressure with just three or four players on the line to avoid letting Mahomes become a problem for the Dirty Bird Defense.
Speaking of problems, Atlanta has a player in the secondary who has caused issues for Mahomes and the Chiefs — Justin Simmons. After spending his entire career in Denver, Simmons has recorded the most interceptions (6) against Mahomes, more than any other active player in the NFL. As I mentioned earlier, Mahomes has already thrown three interceptions this year, and the Falcons' defense has only one interception so far. Given the lack of pass rush Atlanta has shown this season, expect Simmons to play a crucial role against a familiar foe this week.
Offense
Continuing on the point I made earlier about the Chiefs' struggles in defending tight ends, I like Kyle Pitts for a heavy dose of targets this week. So far, Pitts has recorded six receptions for 46 yards and a touchdown. The fantasy world is already back on the “Why did I draft Pitts?” train, but with so many different options in this offense to score and move the ball downfield, they have to exploit what the defense gives them. I believe this week, Pitts is the player who could take advantage of the Chiefs' defense.
Even with the Falcons' success in the running game last week, I think we’ll see Cousins throw the ball more than 30 times. The Chiefs' secondary has struggled against the pass, and Atlanta is riding the momentum of a strong passing performance from last week. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud have shown early promise that the Falcons' receiver depth might not be as thin as initially thought. And, of course, we know Pitts and Drake London can be elite playmakers with the right number of targets. Additionally, Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been influential in the passing game, making this offense even more versatile.
It’s all going to come down to which version of Kirk Cousins shows up on Sunday night. If we get the Cousins we saw last week; I think the Falcons will find success through the air while also mixing in strong runs from Robinson and Allgeier. I love the mix of under-center and play-action calls from Zac Robinson. He also spoke about how this offense can be "versatile" with its formations, which I think could set the Falcons apart — having the ability to run different formations and concepts. Hopefully, the offense can maintain the momentum they built in those final minutes in Philadelphia and keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
Betting Info
Points Spread: KC -3.5 (-105) | ATL +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: KC (-176) | ATL (+148)
Over/Under: O 46.5 (-110) | U 46.5 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Thursday, September 19th
Prediction
Similarly to last week, with the Chiefs having a key offensive player ruled out, I think the spread leans more in the Falcons' favor. However, even though the Chiefs haven't played their best in the first two games, this is still Patrick Mahomes, and primetime football is where he thrives. I like the momentum the Falcons have built, but I don’t see Raheem Morris outcoaching Andy Reid in this one. One also hopes this will be a fairly officiated game as well (insert winky face here).
Final Score: KC: 27, ATL: 24
(Heck, if Chucky likes the Ditry Birds, then maybe I should, too, enjoy this one)
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