Before we get into things, does anyone else in the gallery have any overarching takes about the state of the Patriots or Jerod Mayo based on the events of the last 10 days? No? Perfect. While criticisms of this team or even the Head Coach are far from unwarranted based on the opening seven weeks of the year, I simply don't need to hear from the Mike Lombardi's of the world about it on a daily basis. But the bottom line is this: Jerod Mayo needs to be better at conveying things to the media while not getting too high or too low. It's a rough part of the gig, but you can't leave things up to interpretation as an NFL head coach, much less in one of the three big northeast markets (Boston, New York, Philly). In other words, messaging and optics absolutely matter. Maybe five percent of people, max, on the outside of 1 Patriot Place have ever seen the direct Belichick three keys to being a tough football team list, and not everyone will interpret that as you did (spoiler: Boston very much did not).
Messaging has been a big theme this week as the Patriots make final preparations to face a teetering Jets team for a second time, and that included a speech from injured defensive captain Ja'Whaun Bentley just days ago after Mayo made his "Soft" comments. At least at face value, there are those on this team with the right mindset, wanting to prove that notion wrong while understanding why Mayo said what he did. Take Keion White, for example, who told reporters this week, “At some point you have to be a man and really take pride in your work… we all need to step up.” Kayshon Boutte was another who chimed in by saying, "A lot of us were playing soft, me included."
In all honesty, this is a great time for the Patriots to draw the Jets again. They, too, are way down on their luck, even after firing Robert Saleh and trading Davante Adams, and they have a gigantic matchup with the Texans all of four days afterward. The issue is that they can't really afford to lose at all at this point in the year, so they should be dialed in, which I think is a good thing. This team humiliated the Patriots back in Week 3, and all 53 guys that dress (plus Joe Milton) should want to get their lick back, even if they fall short of picking up a win. So, if for nothing else but pride, how bad do the New England Football Patriots want it?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 27
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: CBS (Spero Dedes and Adam Archuleta on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: All Blue
Jets Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 18.3 (24th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.7 (11th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 307 Yards (2nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 224.6 Yards Per (11th) and 82.4 Yards Per (31st)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 292.4 Yards (6th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 164.7 Yards Per (2nd) and 127.7 Yards Per (16th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 39.8% (15th) and 34.1% (12th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 55% (17th) and 54.5% (16th)
Penalties: 55 (4th)
Penalty Yardage: 512 Yards (1st)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Jets: Alijah Vera-Tucker (IOL), Ashtyn Davis (SAF), Leki Fotu (IDL) (Safety Tony Adams and Wide Reciever Allen Lazard listed as doubtful)
Patriots: Ja'Lynn Polk, Layden Robinson
New York Jets
Defense
If I told you that firing Robert Saleh made the Jets' defense worse, would you believe me? They've allowed more TDs (7) than in the first five weeks of the year combined (6), have had their two worst EPA Per Play outings in back-to-back weeks, also allowing nearly 100 more passing and 30 more rushing yards per than in the five games with Saleh. In fairness, they were without DJ Reed and Michael Carter II last week in the secondary, but their No. 2 boundary corner and top slot corner should be out there this Sunday.
Watching the Steelers game back, the Jets struggled mightily with Pittsburgh condensing their offense to inside the numbers, quick game stuff to running back Jaylen Warren, and tight end Darnell Washington (should've been a Patriot, and will be a Patriot even if it's the last thing I do), and then figuring out how to defend most of the bunch-trips sets they put out there. To me, that's where you miss a guy like Carter II more so than Reed. Russell Wilson also made it a point to attack vertically on the Jets' reserve corners, and to great effect. Unfortunately, Drake Maye won't get that same opportunity.
Next, let's talk Will McDonald, who I could certainly say has some overinflated sack numbers with five against the Patriots and Titans and three against everyone else, but has picked up one in his last three, despite the Bills holding him to a pressure rate of just 4.8%, by far his worst outing of the year. The good news for him this week is that Haason Reddick will join him for the first time in his first game action since the Eagles' season ended in Tampa back in January. The 30-year-old has had at least 11 sacks in each of the last four seasons. While I don't expect him to be anything but a third-down pass-rush specialist in this one, he could certainly make an immediate impact, especially against this line.
Offense
Going from Nate Hackett to ex-Titans OC Todd Downing running the offensive show, the Jets, even with Davante Adams last week, are arguably worse off on that side of the ball in the two-week sample size. They ran the ball to great effect against a brutal Bills run defense, and Aaron Rodgers threw for a season-high 272 yards, but going 1/4 in the red zone is a recipe for disaster, and they deserved to lose that one. Their red zone and third-down offensive numbers are down these last two weeks, and outside of the Patriots game, Aaron Rodgers has simply not been good. He's coming into this game with six interceptions in his last three outings, and the bad body language and vibes he's exuded have arguably gotten worse over time. That said, I expect a similar outing to the first in this second matchup. He'll find matchups over the middle that he likes, and if the Patriots can't crank up the heat, they'll be in for a long day at the office.
Upfront, things get a bit murky for the Jets with Alijah Vera Tucker out with an ankle injury, in addition to one of their reserve interior guys, Xavier Newman, being taken to the hospital after a big hit on a Rodgers pick run back. This puts Jake Hanson in line to make just his sixth-ever career start and first of 2024 at right guard for the Jets, and Morgan Moses is also banged up still, with his availability up in the air (listed as questionable). This unit has been better at not surrendering pressure since the coaching switch, but they haven't done well enough as run blockers. Excluding a pair of 13-yard runs, Breece Hall only picked up 12 yards on 10 carries. That's simply not good enough for a team that entered the year with Lombardi Trophy aspirations. Not every run defense you'll play will be Buffalo or New England.
New England Patriots
Defense
This week's defensive preview is short and sweet. I need gap integrity, pocket containment, and no blown plays. Sadly, this is where the bar is for me, but it is what it is now. The Patriots were able to put heat on Rodgers a month ago, but the problem is they couldn't contain him in the pocket, which, of course, bled over into the San Francisco game. Keep him in the pocket, and if, by some miracle, the Patriots can defend over the middle, I like their chances on the boundary this week. I think the Patriots can still stick with Gonzalez on Garrett Wilson, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Patriots go with the Jones' to rotate on and off Adams throughout this one. Not having to deal with Lazard would be a big help because he exposed the Patriots' lack of size at corner almost immediately in Week 3.
Watching the TNF game back, the Patriots simply couldn't get off blocks at the point of attack well enough, and consistently, those 3-6-yard runs killed them. Shockingly, that's become an alarming trend since as well. Last week, it was duo that gave them some real trouble with Jacksonville, so that's one area that I'll be very focused on come Sunday. Although he only had 12 cracks at it last week, I need to see a bounce-back game from Keion White as a pass rusher. A 6.8% pressure rate cannot happen if White wants to be a star in this league.
Offense
The latest offensive line shuffle edition has some good and bad news. The good is that Vederian Lowe is trending towards returning to left tackle, where he was legitimately good against both the Dolphins and Texans before going down. You'd almost certainly get Mike Onwenu kicked back inside to right guard, where the Patriots ideally want him anyway, and I think that could be a big help to a run-blocking offense that's been anemic the last two weeks. The bad news is that Layden Robinson is hurt again, but that gets offset if Onwenu gets kicked inside.
Now visually, why is it more ideal, in the words of Patriots OLine coach Scott Peters, to have Onwenu at guard? Because you can use him as a pull blocker across the LOS and he can make plays like this.
It was a newsworthy week for the WR room in that Kendrick Bourne more or less accidentally confirmed that some of the younger guys (presumably Pop Douglas and Javon Baker, although that hasn't been 100% confirmed) were out a bit late at some point in the week in London, hence why both guys were "sick." Mayo denied that being the case, but Douglas being sick the day of the incident felt a bit fishy to me, anyhow. Bourne ended up bringing up the story about how he went out midweek as a 49er before Super Bowl 54 and how he regretted that.
I will say that he didn't directly name any of his teammates and that this came off as wanting to use this as a teaching moment. That's inexcusable as an NFL player, but Bourne trying to be a leader here is ultimately good. Full stop, Pop Douglas missing a ton of time in that Jags game cannot happen when he's relied upon as much as he is, and this isn't what you're trying to hear about Baker when he's still trying to compete for playing time. Mayo did have some nice things to say about the rookie out of UCF, but we don't really have a clear answer on when his debut will be. Maybe it ends up being tomorrow, but I wonder if they will give him a look if Tyquan Thorton continues to be a nonproducer (when healthy).
As for Drake Maye, I think this is a Jets team that won't let him off the hook for some of the mistakes he made vs. Houston and Jacksonville. I'm excited to see if he's willing to attack these Jets corners vertically, and if so, how early. We talked about Russell Wilson's success last week doing so, and the weekly "Throw it Deep to Boutte" play has been a smash hit.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NYJ -7 (-112) | NE -7 (-108)
Moneyline: NYJ (-325) | NE (+260)
Over/Under: O 41 (-110) | U 41 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Saturday, October 26
I think Jets both ways is the clear play this week, but this is a challenging total, given how cold these two offenses can get from a scoring standpoint. My gut says over, simply based on the Patriots' defensive troubles of keeping points off the board, but if this one did go under, I could be more shocked.
Prediction
I don't think it's a stretch to say the Jets are winning this football game. A loss here going into a Thursday Night game vs. Houston would essentially end their season. Even with the injuries, they objectively put together a great offensive game plan the first go-around, which makes me want to puke saying that.
What matters to me this week, even if it's a loss, is how this team physically plays. Your head coach called you soft after a fifth straight loss, and if you lose in roughly the same fashion as the last two weeks from a defensive standpoint, I think that says just as much as the bulk (not all) of that unit as it does Mayo and Covington. Some guys are pissed on this team, and quite frankly, they need to play like it instead of sulk. You should be pissed over losing five straight, and even if that number becomes six, can I walk out of Sunday saying there are guys on defense who care? I, for one, hope so.
Final Score: New York Jets 26, New England Patriots 17
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