With Week 10 officially kicking off in a matter of hours, the top end of the NFL Draft next spring is beginning to round into form, with teams like the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints in contention for the top pick. Although there are 11 teams separated by one game currently at the top of the order, things will begin to change rather quickly here as we get closer to and eventually into December. So, here's how I have things standing right now, with just two quarterbacks in the first frame and the first quarterback off the board in our quarter-season mock out of round one entirely. Also, did I mention trades in round one?
Mock Draft Notes:
- Order for nonplayoff teams is based on the current record, with strength of schedule as of Week 9, not factoring in future opponents. Playoff Team order is based on the Tankathon Order
- All trade values are displayed via the Rich Hill Chart.
2025 NFL Mock Draft (Round 1 Only)
*TRADE*
Patriots Receive: Picks 7, 69, a 2026 First and Second Round Pick, and Andrew Thomas (723; Thomas isn't factored into the value)
Giants Receive: Pick 1 (1000)
Pick 1) New York Giants (via New England Patriots)
Projected Top Team Needs: Quarterback, Left Tackle (Post-Mock Trade), Defensive Back
The Pick: Sheduer Sanders, QB (Colorado)
I can comfortably say the Giants would rather keep Andrew Thomas for the long haul, but if they want to hop a few other teams to get their crack at a franchise QB, they may not have a choice. This trade is relatively in line with what the Panthers sent to the Bears in the Bryce Young deal, and Sanders is playing the role of the Bama product here. Alabama's Jalen Milroe's stock has taken a notable hit after an awesome performance vs. Georgia, but Sanders has put together a very good season in 2024 to this point and currently has them in contention to win the Big XII.
The Athletic's Dan Brugler recently (loosely) compared the 22-year-old to Packers signal-caller Jordan Love, and I certainly agree with the points made about his poise and accuracy. If the lack of physical upside and the fact that he doesn't have top-1% arm strength aren't deal breakers for you, Sanders is more than a worthwhile prospect.
*TRADE*
Panthers Receive: Picks 9, 40, and a 2026 First-Round Pick (682)
Titans Receive: Pick 2 (717)
Pick 2) Tennessee Titans (via Carolina Panthers)
Projected Top Team Needs: Quarterback, Right Side of OL, X-Reciever
The Pick: Cam Ward, QB (The U)
I could understand the Panthers sticking here and getting a James Pearce or Mykell Williams to help off the edge, but they have plenty of holes defensively. They also have the benefit of needy teams wanting to pass up the Browns with the opportunity to add to a pretty substantial war chest as is (remember this by the end). Not to mention, they can block the Saints out of the bidding for Ward in this instance, so that'd be a real win-win.
This move would mean the next time the Titans pick would be at 109, but the stakes demand it, given how bad their quarterback situation has been over the last two seasons. Ultimately, I think the success of Jayden Daniels, even more so than I would've anticipated this year, should alleviate concerns over Ward being a fifth-year senior, but as crazy as it sounds, he only turns 23 next May. I believe The U product has better arm talent than Sanders, and his elite improvisation skills should immediately translate. I want to see him clean up some of the mistakes he made against Duke, most notably a horrendous interception across his body on a scramble, but Ward hasn't inherently done anything to make me believe he isn't a round-one talent.
Pick 3) Cleveland Browns
Projected Top Team Needs: Quarterback, X-Reciever, Offensive Tackle
The Pick: Will Campbell, OT (LSU)
If the Browns miss out on the two top quarterback options, it would be wise for them to get another tackle in the building, with Jedrick Willis headed to the open market and Jack Conklin potentially being a cap casualty this offseason. Campbell continues to be excellent for the Tigers this season, and with the Browns, he would most likely stick at left tackle with Dawand Jones going over to the right side, where he's probably best suited anyway.
Pick 4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Top Team Needs: Left Tackle, Interior Defensive Line, Boundary Cornerback/Slot Defender
The Pick: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT (Texas)
It may not seem like it now, but I liked the Cam Robinson trade for Jacksonville because they weren't getting that kind of compensation for him in the comp-pick formula, and you were better off trading him than letting him walk in free agency. Adding Banks to that offensive line would be a godsend for Trevor Lawrence, and he's the exact kind of tone-setter they could use long-term.
Pick 5) New Orleans Saints
Projected Top Team Needs: Yes
The Pick: James Pearce Jr., EDGE (Tennessee)
It's going to be QUITE the offseason coming up for the Saints of New Orleans Town. The last remnants of a bygone (Sean Payton era) are starting to be cycled out with the firing of Dennis Allen. GM Micky Loomis is almost undoubtedly next, and this is a team without a long-term fixture at quarterback; is in the textbook definition of cap hell and realistically years away from digging themselves out of a hole of their own design. A rebuild has to start somewhere, and they could do much worse than James Pearce Jr., who's racked up four sacks in his last four starts, including 1.5 against Alabama. There's your long-term replacement for Cam Jordan.
Pick 6) Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Top Team Needs: Quarterback, Boundary Cornerback, X-Reciever
The Pick: Travis Hunter, CB/WR (Colorado)
Vegas could end up in the same boat as the Saints at the rate they are going, but the good news is they already have some long-term pieces in the building, such as Brock Bowers, Christian Wilkins, and the always-reliable Maxx Crosby. Not exactly a bad three guys to have. Also, missing out on a quarterback and going with Hunter, who'd be the Raiders' best boundary receiver or corner on day one, feels like a no-brainer. Watching how his Heisman case develops down the home stretch in this college season will be nothing short of fascinating.
Pick 7) New England Patriots (via New York Giants)
Projected Top Team Needs: X-Reciever, Edge Rusher, Interior Defensive Line
The Pick: Tetairoa McMillian, WR (Arizona)
With left tackle situated in this mock thanks to a good move with the Giants, the question becomes, do you get a top outside threat for Drake Maye? Or do you go with an edge rusher to create a three-headed monster with said pick, Christian Barmore, and Keion White? Well, the last time the Patriots took a player out of the University of Arizona, things went well (spoiler: it's exactly who you think), and Tet McMillian, while not the caliber of prospect of MHJ, Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabers, is highly intriguing for a guy who's 6'5" and a little over 210 lbs. He possesses an out-of-this-world catch radius and moves as fluidly as any big man I've ever seen play wide receiver. I could see the Patriots forgo WR if they like what they see by the end of the year with Javon Baker and Ja'Lynn Polk, but T-Mac would be their top guy on day one, no matter what.
*TRADE*
Dolphins Receive: Picks 12, 79, 188 (410)
Bengals Receive: Pick 8 and a 2026 fifth round-pick (414)
Pick 8) Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Top Team Needs: Interior Defensive Line, Edge Rusher, Boundary Cornerback
The Pick: Mason Graham, IDL (Michigan)
While the Bengals' run defense sits about midpack after nine weeks, they are only about a half dozen yards more allowed per game from being 26th or 27th. They need a body up the middle, and Graham is this draft's best option.
Pick 9) Carolina Panthers (via Tennessee Titans)
Projected Top Team Needs: Defense, Wide Reciever, Competent Ownership
The Pick: Will Johnson, CB (Michigan)
This may sound crazy given how in limbo the quarterback situation is, although I liked what I saw from Bryce Young vs. New Orleans, I do see the vision with the Panthers offense. Xavier Legette, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and Jonathon Brooks should be quality contributors for them, and their offensive line is top 10 in both pressure and sack rate allowed. It's not yet there, but I see the vision.
Defensively, not so much. Losing Derrick Brown in Week 1 really hurt the entire flow of this Carolina defense, and they don't really have the talent on the back end to make up for the lack of power up front. They could go edge rusher here, but I don't think they could get a corner as good as Will Johnson in round two. He has some Pat Surtain and Christian Gonzalez to his build and play and might be on the same level as Travis Hunter—a very, very good corner prospect.
Pick 10) New York Jets
Projected Top Team Needs: Offensive Tackle (Long-Term), Quarterback (Long-Term), Interior Defensive Line
The Pick: Aireontae Ersey, OT (Minnesota)
If Garrett Nussmeier out of LSU can show some more consistency on tape before the end of the year, you could talk me into him going to New York and sitting a year or two behind Rodgers with this pick. For now, I think their best course of action would be to get your tackle situation completely set by having a future pairing of Olu Fashanu and Ersey. Letting him be a lead blocker in an offense featuring Breece Hall and Braelon Allen sounds horrifying.
Pick 11) Dallas Cowboys
Projected Top Team Needs: Defense (As in the entire side of the ball), Offensive Line, Running Back
The Pick: Deone Walker, IDL (Kentucky)
The Cowboys' run defense can continue to be described as historically and hilariously bad and in new, fun, and exciting ways. How could they fix it? How about the mammoth interior defender out of Big Blue Nation? Some consistency issues have been brought up, but he has such a wild athletic and physical profile that he becomes hard to pass up on. Had he not torn his ACL, LSU linebacker Harold Perkins would've also made sense here, as well as Georgia 'backer Jalon Walker.
Pick 12) Miami Dolphins (via Cincinnati Bengals)
Projected Top Team Needs: Safety, Interior Defensive Line, Linebacker
The Pick: Malaki Starks, SAF (Georgia)
If I had to guess right now, the odds are that Jevon Holland won't be in Miami next year unless they maneuver around a decent chunk of cash. If that's the case, Malaki Starks should be the only guy they consider in round one. He's a true Swiss army knife who'd bring enough right away to offset enough of the loss of Holland should he walk in free agency.
Pick 13) Seattle Seahawks
Projected Top Team Needs: Linebacker, Center, Edge Rusher
The Pick: Jalon Walker, LB (Georgia)
The Jerome Baker Era came to a halt when the Seahawks sent him to Tennessee for Ernest Jones, and it's hard to say if this team plans to keep their leading tackler, Tyrel Dodson, in the fold after this season. Even if they do, adding in a linebacker who can drop down to the edge and give you high-quality reps like Jalon Walker would be a huge boost for Mike McDonald's defense. If the 6'2" 245 lbs measurement is accurate, that's just about your ideal linebacker in today's NFL.
Pick 14) Indianapolis Colts
Projected Top Team Needs: Cornerback, Safety, Tight End
The Pick: Tacario Davis, CB (Arizona)
The Juju Brents injury didn't help the Colts' defensive situation. Still, they've had a tough time covering opposing receivers all season. They need another body, so why not corner the market on 6'4" boundary corners? Tacario Davis has a ton of high-upside traits (ball production, football IQ, etc.), and judging by his 2023 sample size, he could potentially be a lethal man coverage defender as a pro.
*TRADE*
Bucs Receive: Picks 18, 82, 155 (352)
Rams Receive: Picks 15 and 152 (340)
Pick 15) Los Angeles Rams (via Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Projected Top Team Needs: Interior Defensive Line, Quarterback (Long Term), Offensive Tackle
The Pick: Kenneth Grant, IDL (Michigan)
The Rams' run defense has been better since coming out of their bye week. Still, I'd like them to get one more critical piece to set up a very exciting new-age front with Aaron Donald retired. That piece here would be none other than Kenneth Grant, who's as overwhelming a physical specimen for an interior defender as I've seen in a few years. His combination of athleticism and power is crazy, and lining him up on a DLine that already has DROY frontrunner Jared Verse, Byron Young, and Kobie Turner...well, that's a recipe for success.
Pick 16) Chicago Bears
Projected Top Team Needs: Interior Offensive Line, Interior Defensive Line, Left Tackle
The Pick: Tyler Booker, IOL (Alabama)
With the schedule the Bears have upcoming in tow with some of their key injuries at the moment, I fully expect them to be drafted inside the top 10, potentially even the top five (again). In any case, their offensive line is a trainwreck, and although it's not a tackle, Tyler Booker could start at either guard spot for the Bears on day one. He's put out a ton of good tape in 2024 as the Crimson Tide's left guard, and I'd expect him to be one of the first five offensive linemen period off the board.
Pick 17) San Francisco 49ers
Projected Top Team Needs: Defensive Back, Right Tackle, Edge Rusher
The Pick: Mykell Williams, EDGE (Georgia)
What a coup this would be for the 49ers. I've liked the rental strategy with their edge rusher opposite of Bootstraps Bosa strategy these last couple of seasons. Even with some bigger needs on the board, they would be committing malpractice by letting a guy like Mykell Williams drop any lower than he has here. He's been putting together an honorable season after an ankle injury took him out of action in the early goings, but he has all the tools you're looking for off the edge in the NFL.
Pick 18) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Los Angeles Rams)
Projected Top Team Needs: Cornerback, Linebacker, Z/Slot Reciever
The Pick: Luther Burden, WR (Missouri)
It's hard to say what the Bucs plan with Chris Godwin after his devastating injury, but replacing him becomes their top priority if that was his last snap in Tampa. Adding a guy like Luther Burden, who's as lethal after the catch as any receiver in this class, to a WR group that already has Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Josh Palmer would be massive for Baker Mayfield and Liam Coen (assuming he doesn't get an HC gig).
Pick 19) Denver Broncos
Projected Top Team Needs: Offensive Tackle, 0-Tech Interior Defender, Running Back
The Pick: Ashton Jeanty, RB (Boise State)
There are a few different key free agents coming here for the Broncos, but they have a chance to solidify their run game with a rookie quarterback already in the fold. Ashton Jeanty is clearly a running back prospect worthy of a first-round pick and would make a pretty good statistical running offense even better.
Pick 20) Arizona Cardinals
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Interior Defensive Line, Cornerback
The Pick: Nic Scourton, EDGE (Texas A&M)
The Cardinals adding a prospect the caliber of Nic Scourton makes too much sense with the amount of pass-rushing talent set to hit free agency this offseason and their inability to rush the passer as is. His ability to jolt off the line, hypothetically paired with a tweener like Darius Robinson, would be a massive upgrade for Jonathan Gannon's unit.
Pick 21) Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Top Team Needs: Cornerback, Tight End, Edge Rusher
The Pick: Colston Loveland, TE (Michigan)
I'd put the odds of this happening one way or another in the -1000000 range. I believe cornerback is a bigger need, but getting Justin Herbert, another pass catcher, is not far off. Who better than someone Jim Harbaugh is very familiar with in Loveland? Although it was in a losing effort, he put up north of 110 yards on the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks defense over the weekend.
Pick 22) Atlanta Falcons
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Boundary Cornerback, Interior Defensive Line
The Pick: Abdul Carter, EDGE (Penn State)
Even after trading for Matt Judon, the Falcons' pass rush is among the worst in the NFL and has no signs of improving in the short term. Right now, Falcons fans are well within their rights to be upset over how this year's draft went, with the team forgoing all three of Jared Verse, Dallas Turner, and Laiatu Latu for Michael Penix, and they cannot make that same mistake again. Draft a guy like Abdul Carter, reset the room, and go from there. He's coming off an unreal game against Ohio State, where he showed off the whole arsenal—an elite combination of bend and speed.
Pick 23) Green Bay Packers
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Interior Defensive Line, Cornerback
The Pick: Shavon Revel, CB (East Carolina)
Revel's ACL tear makes his prognosis on where he goes murky, but don't let the small school fool you; this kid can play. His high-level instincts, ball skills, and athleticism in a Jeff Hafley scheme, and opposite of Jaire Alexander, no less, would make him an instant impact guy in a place like Green Bay.
Pick 24) Baltimore Ravens
Projected Top Team Needs: Left Tackle, Cornerback, Wide Reciever
The Pick: Benjamin Morrison, CB (Notre Dame)
Morrison is, unfortunately, another corner done for the year thanks to a mid-October hip injury, but he has been a consistent round-one level prospect for a while now and someone the Ravens shouldn't shy away from drafting round-one as the worst pass defense in the sport. I said this in my quarter-season mock, but his tape against Marvin Harrison Jr. from last year is as good as it gets.
Pick 25) Houston Texans
Projected Top Team Needs: Interior Offensive Line, Interior Defensive Line, Running Back
The Pick: Jonah Savaiinaea, IOL (Arizona)
The Texans could be looking to upgrade at both guard spots this offseason, and if so, someone like Saviinaea makes all the sense in the world for them. He's a guy who could play right tackle if the Texans needed him to, but realistically, he'll end up between the tackles and potentially be at right guard in Houston with Kenyon Green on the way out.
Pick 26) Philadelphia Eagles
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Right Guard, Interior Pass Rush Specialist
The Pick: Jack Sawyer, EDGE (Ohio State)
Yet another team staring down the barrel of losing multiple pass rushers to the open market, none more important than Josh Sweat, the Eagles here, tap into the Ohio State well and grab Jack Sawyer, who, as of a few weekends ago, led the nation in pass rush win rate among several key edge rushers. He stands 6'5", 260, and only turns 23 next May; it would be a hell of a long-term fix if they lose Sweat and Brandon Graham.
Pick 27) Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Top Team Needs: Z/Slot Reciever, Cornerback, Offensive Guard
The Pick: Isaiah Bond, WR (Texas)
As interested as I am to see how Mike Williams does in this Pittsburgh stint, they need a long-term fixture opposite George Pickens, who's been very hot and cold in 2024. An ankle injury has brought Isaiah Bond's production to a standstill in recent weeks, but his game-breaking speed would pair well with a quarterback like Russell Wilson, who's found the Seattle touch on his deep ball since getting into the starting lineup.
*TRADE*
Vikings Receive: Picks 40 and 66 (225)
Panthers Receive: Pick 28 (209)
Pick 28) Carolina Panthers (via Minnesota Vikings)
Projected Top Team Needs: Defense, Wide Reciever, Competent Ownership
The Pick: Emeka Egbuka, WR (Ohio State)
When in doubt with wide receiver uncertainty, press the Ohio State WR dispenser button and watch all your problems disappear. Egbuka has had to somewhat suffer in the fact he's never been the top option at Ohio State, but he's uber-reliable and will almost certainly become the All-Time receiving leader for the Buckeyes by the end of the year, needing 313 yards with four regular season games to go. It's well worth the trade up here for the Panthers, especially to get that fifth-year option.
Pick 29) Washington Commanders
Projected Top Team Needs: Tight End, Linebacker, Edge Rusher
The Pick: Tyler Warren, TE (Penn State)
The Commanders are officially in their Championship window after making a big splash for Marshon Lattimore, but tight end isn't a long-term guarantee for them with Zach Ertz nearing 34 years old and in a contract year at that. Luckily, this is an excellent tight-end class. Mackey and Paul Hornung Award contender Tyler Warren is a big part of that. A versatile threat with a receiving, rushing, and passing TD to his name in 2024, he'd give an already dangerous Washington offense another potent threat as both a passer and blocker. Also, did I mention he can run the point in a Wildcat offense?
*TRADE*
Bills Receive: Picks 33 and 142 (194)
Patriots Receive: Pick 30 (196)
Pick 30) New England Patriots (via Buffalo Bills)
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Interior Defensive Line, Linebacker
The Pick: Harold Perkins, LB (LSU)
While adding a pass rusher is a bigger need for the Patriots than adding another linebacker, this defense lost a ton of leadership and identity when Ja'Whaun Bentley went down for the season snaps into his second game, and they've never recovered. While his ACL injury could force him back to Baton Rouge for one more season, if Harold Perkins is draft-eligible this year, a team like New England should be all over him, trading up here in doing so. He's a triple threat in that he can rush the passer, defend the run, and pass at a high level. A gamble, yes, but a calculated one. The last linebacker they traded up to get in round one with injury concerns turned out pretty good I'd say.
Pick 31) Detroit Lions
Projected Top Team Needs: Edge Rusher, Cornerback, Right Guard
The Pick: Princely Umanmielen, EDGE (Ole Miss)
Trading for Za'Darius Smith was an excellent short-term solution for the Lions, but looking forward, getting another body to help out in the rotation opposite of Aidan Hutchinson has to be a priority for Brad Holmes and co. Princely Umanmielen (fire name alert) has elite speed and bend, and if they could realistically pack on an extra 10 pounds, it would be a tough blocking assignment on a team that has the best pass rusher in the world on the other side of the line.
Pick 32) Kansas City Chiefs
Projected Top Team Needs: Tight End, Cornerback, Z/Slot Reciever
The Pick: Harold Fannin Jr, TE (Bowling Green)
Travis Kelce could be playing his final regular season games here in 2024, and even if not, the Chiefs probably don't want to wait until midseason for him to get things going again. Fannin, a Mackey semi-finalist on track for a 1400-yard season, has been a massive riser in recent weeks, and getting to know him, that feels appropriate. Uber athletic receiver with some solid blocking chops at 6'4" and 230 lbs. Also, for the small school concerns, Fannin torched current SEC front-runner Texas A&M in their barn earlier in the year (8 Receptions, 145 yards, and a 65-yard score). Andy Reid would do devious things to scheme a guy like him open and get him looks in space.
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