If the first few years of Post-Tom Brady Patriots Football wasn't a new era for you, it certainly is now. Bill Belichick, now being ousted, makes the 2024 season the first that neither of the two reside at One Patriot Place in 25 years. Not that Bill's firing was without reason; nearly everything that could've gone wrong went wrong after a wildcard playoff berth in 2021. Since being run out of the gym by Buffalo in January of 2022, the Patriots tout a 12-22 record, which is good for fifth worst in the NFL over that span. However, how ownership handled things, mainly through the Dynasty documentary on Apple, was not the way to treat the best coach in the sport's history on the way out. At least he got a nice standing ovation at Brady's HoF ceremony.
As much as the Belichick firing dominated the media cycle in Boston as winter turned into spring, things internally moved quickly. Jerod Mayo became the Patriots' head coach a bit ahead of schedule, while Eliot Wolf, the son of legendary Packers executive Ron Wolf, was given the role of De-Facto GM before being offered a permanent role post-draft. The two, in tandem, oversaw an offseason where defensive line coach Demarcus Covington was promoted to DC. At the same time, well-traveled OC Alex Van Pelt and former Rams STC Jeremy Springer were brought in from the outside to complete the main segments of Mayo's inaugural coaching staff.
Priority one was pretty clear from when the 2023 season ended: It was time to overhaul this offense and, more specifically, try to find the next franchise quarterback through the NFL draft. Signing Jacoby Brissett as a bridge option beforehand, Wolf and Co. landed North Carolina gunslinger Drake Maye with the third overall pick in the NFL draft before going offense with six of their remaining seven picks. Receivers Ja'Lynn Polk out of Washington and Javon Baker from UCF by way of Alabama were the two highlight picks, and much needed at that, given them cutting bait with DeVante Parker and Juju Smith-Schuster, and their failed pursuits of Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk.
While Free Agency was mainly a disappointment, this team did the right thing in the draft and retained all of their crucial talent on expiring deals, including Michael Onwenu, Kyle Dugger, Anfernee Jennings, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, and more. Additionally, despite keeping the core of their objectively great defense from 2023 intact, there are two notable absences: Matt Judon, now an Atlanta Falcon, and Christian Barmore, who was discovered to have blood clots and is likely not to play much this year, if at all. It's not great news for a pass rush that struggled without Judon last year, to say the least.
I don't think it's a stretch to say this is more than likely not a playoff team. We all saw the issues on the offensive line in the preseason, and it could take several weeks for things to stabilize on that side of the ball anyway. But even so, are people looking past this Patriots team just a bit too much? 12 of their games a season ago were one-score affairs, and while they have one of the single toughest schedules in the league, they are better at quarterback and think of how they lost some of their close outings last year. How competitive can this squad be in year one of the Mayo Era?
Coaching Staff and Front Office Personnel
- Head Coach: Jerod Mayo (First Year as Patriots Head Coach)
- Offensive Coordinator: Alex Van Pelt (First Year as Patriots OC)
- Defensive Coordinator: Demarcus Covington (First Year as Patriots DC)
- Special Teams Coordinator: Jeremy Springer (First Year as Patriots STC)
- Notable Assistant Coaches: Dont’a Hightower (Linebackers Coach), Mike Pellegrino (Cornerbacks Coach), Jerry Montgomery (Defensive Line Coach), Tyler Hughes (Wide Receivers Coach), Scott Peters (Offensive Line Coach), Ben McAdoo (Sr. Offensive Assistant), Troy Brown (Skill Development/Kick and Punt Returners Coach), Matthew Slater (Special Assistant to the Head Coach)
- De Facto General Manager: Eliot Wolf (First Year as Patriots De Facto GM)
Notable Additions
- Free Agency: Jacoby Brissett (QB, Commanders), KJ Osborn (WR, Vikings), Antonio Gibson (RB, Commanders), Sione Takitaki (LB, Browns), Austin Hooper (TE, Raiders)
- Draft: Drake Maye (QB, UNC), Ja’Lynn Polk (WR, Washington), Caedan Wallace (OT, Penn State), Javon Baker (WR, UCF)
- Trades: N/A
Notable Subtractions
- Free Agency: Mack Wilson (LB, Cardinals), Trent Brown (OT, Bengals), Myles Bryant (DB, Texans)
- Trades: Mac Jones (To Jacksonville), Matthew Judon (To Atlanta)
- Releases: DeVante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster, J.C. Jackson
2023 Patriots Offensive Team Ranks
- 13.9 Points Per Game (t-31st)
- 276.2 Yards Per Game (30th)
- 180.5 Pass Yards and 95.7 Rush Yards Per Game (28th and 26th)
- 30.18% Conversion Rate on Third Down (31st)
- 58.33% Red Zone Conversion Rate (11th)
- 29 Turnovers (6th)
2023 Patriots Defensive Team Ranks
- 21.5 Points Allowed Per Game (14th)
- 301.6 Yards Allowed Per Game (7th)
- 208.4 Pass Yards and 93.2 Rush Yards Allowed Per Game (11th and 4th)
- 36.29% Conversion Rate Allowed on Third Down (7th)
- 46.15% Red Zone Conversion Rate Allowed (5th)
- 18 Takeaways (t-23rd)
The New Blood
One of, if not the biggest, reason to be excited about the Patriots is some of the newer guys on this roster. Mainly talking about the last two draft classes (excluding Drake Maye, who we'll get to later), they have seemingly hit on a pair of receivers in Pop Douglas and Ja'Lynn Polk, with there still being enough to believe in with Javon Baker. Despite only a 3.25-game sample size, they hit a goldmine last year by taking Christian Gonzalez, who looked like a superstar corner, up against six Pro Bowl-caliber wideouts to kick off 2023. Then, despite some of the apparent issues this team faces at tackle, Sidy Sow had great stretches a year ago, while rookies Layden Robinson and Caedan Wallace have looked good at points this summer.
The Patriots' draft woes were never going to last forever. If their failed pursuits of top wideouts Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk taught us anything, drafting and developing talent is the only true way for the Patriots to rebuild themselves and become an attractive landing spot for free agents and trade targets. Money alone isn't going to cut it for elite players, but the good news is that the Patriots are starting to stack up some core guys out of these draft classes; really, outside of 2022, where they still drafted Marcus Jones, you could apply this back to 2020. Every name you see here, I would say, has at least made some level of a contribution since then, has looked good in the ramp-up to this year, and is on the active roster.
I think it's fair to point out that Dugger, Barmore, and Gonzalez are the only superstars in this group, but every roster has key cogs who aren't necessarily the cream of the crop. Take guys like Anfernee Jennings, a spectacular run defender a year ago, Keion White, Mondre, Bryce Baringer, and Marcus Jones as examples.
We'll discuss White and Maye in a bit, but the guy who impressed me the most this summer and am most excited to see develop throughout the year is Ja'Lynn Polk. His mits have been as good as gold since he got to Foxborough, and he can be a legit three-level threat right away. Especially seeing as Kendrick Bourne is starting the year on PUP, I see no reason why he isn't your day-one starting Z receiver opposite Tyquan Thornton, with Pop Douglas roaming in the slot. If he can become a reliable contributor immediately, it's hard to overstate how gigantic that would be.
The AVP and Scott Peters Effect
Of the newest "class" of coaches to join the Patriots, none are more important than offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and offensive line coach Scott Peters. AVP was not someone I had considered for the OC gig once it was confirmed that Bill O'Brien was gone, much less expected him to be let go by the Browns after they made the playoffs with Joe Flacco down the home stretch.
A well-traveled offensive mind over the last twenty years, Van Pelt is perhaps best known for his stints as Aaron Rodgers' quarterback coach in Green Bay from 2014-17 and Browns OC from 2020 until last year. He's not quite a Shannahan guy, but he's certainly no stranger to operating within West Coast-style offenses, and what was probably the selling point for him to come here in the first place was to call plays, which he hasn't done a ton of given he's been with a ton of offensive head coaches. However, he had a big hand in helping Kevin Stafanski design plays and setting gameplans.
As for what you can expect in terms of tendencies and as a base package, Van Pelt will probably mix it up a bit more between zone and gap running concepts here than what they did in Cleveland (Spoiler: They LOVED going to PA passing off of outside zone looks), but last year's Browns led the league in six offensive linemen looks a season ago, liked to mix it up in empty backfield looks on occasion, and then even once Joe Flacco came into the picture, they stayed pretty true to running a lot of 11 personnel looks, while still mixing in some 12 personnel when it came to the passing attack if Browns-Jets last year was any indication (also had them down for a play action pass in 13 personnel in the second quarter. Real hoop). Some more knowledgeable people than me can break this down more (Evan Lazar and Taylor Kyles, for starters), but that's enough of an entry-level analysis.
Peters spent the last three years under legendary OL coach Brian Callahan in Cleveland and is now a lead lineman coach for the first time in his career. One of his calling cards, which goes back to his run with the Browns, is his "strike system," which has been implemented with the Patriots all summer. The strike system entails pairing pass sets to specific striking options and counter moves in a streamlined way. You can pair these striking options to certain plays or situations, and the verdict from New England's linemen is that they seem to like it.
“[Peters' Strike System]'s detailed and it helps out a lot. It’s something that I wish I knew earlier because it fixes a lot of things. You have a lot more time to figure things out. It works with speed, it works with power. It works with guys that are dynamic, inside moves. There’s an answer for everything.” - Caedan Wallace (via Brian Hines)
The struggles the Patriots face at tackle are real in my book and probably the biggest issue with the team at the moment (The Patriots have a pretty good interior trio, in my opinion), but assuming some of these younger linemen, namely Layden Robinson, Caedan Wallace, and Sidy Sow, can take that next step under Peters, that would be gigantic. On a final note, Peters is a two-time World Champion in Submission Grappling, helped open up the Lion's Den MMA Gym with MMA and Pro Wrestling legend Ken Shamrock, and is also credited with training Brock Lesnar in his UFC run. They don't make guys like this anymore, man.
Keion White Year Two Breakout?
Before we got into the summer, I think the expectations for Keion White were to take a gradual step in year two after mainly showing flashes throughout year one. Now that Christian Barmore is shelved with Blood Clots and Matt Judon is gone, White almost has to step it up in a big way for this year's Patriots pass rush to be competitive.
One thing this defensive coaching staff has done this summer, as highlighted by Taylor Kyles and Bernd Buchmasser, is that they've put him EVERYWHERE on the defensive front. 3-Tech DT and Edge Rusher in even and odd fronts, and there was even a one-off snap against the Eagles where they ran him as a nose tackle. Realistically, You'll probably see him off the edge the most, but the fact they feel comfortable enough kicking him inside on certain looks should help a ton in odd fronts with Barmore gone for the time being.
While it's more than fair to point out that White's damage in the preseason has come against lesser competition, I also don't think Covington and his staff are putting him in this position if they don't feel he can produce with this level of responsibility on his shoulders. White mentioned that some of his personal goals for the year were to be dominant when it comes to hand checking and also mentioned getting vertical separation as another one of his goals. For a guy who is still relatively new to playing this position, though, there are a ton of expectations on the soft-spoken Georgia Tech (by way of Old Dominion) product, but he's just enough of a freak athlete to make it work.
No Fly Zone
We never got the chance to see what a full-strength Patriots secondary could do last season due to injuries, but if there are better five-man units out back than Christian Gonzalez, Johnathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Kyle Dugger, and Jabrill Peppers, it's not many. Outside of David Andrews, Peppers feels like the heart and soul of this team as he enters year three in Foxborough. Especially when things were rough last year, he was consistently the spark plug to the engine defensively, a positive influence on the entire defense, and you never had to worry about his compete level. Davante Adams can tell you all about that. I'd also be stunned if he isn't a captain this year.
While expectations for Christian Gonzalez are high after an excellent start to 2023, I feel another key young piece in this secondary has flown a bit under the radar this summer. Talking about Marcus Jones. Suffering a torn labrum with less than 50 snaps to his name a season ago, he never got the chance to build off that four-game stretch to close out his rookie year, in which he clamped up Devante Adams out in Vegas in a game where he played every defensive snap.
While Marcus can definitely play on the outside, you'll most likely see him in the slot primarily, and then there's certainly a world where Alex Austin can sub in for him to match up for size. I can't say I'd want to see a repeat of when they had Jones match up against eight-inch taller Tee Higgins a couple of years ago (spoiler: it didn't go great on the opening drive of that game). Obviously, I don't feel like I have to bring up what he's capable of as a return man, but he's certainly capable of being a quality NFL cornerback. I have high hopes not just for him but for this secondary as a whole, which is the undisputed best unit on this team.
Sitting Maye To Start The Year is The Right Call
Most never doubted it, but the official call that Brissett would kick off the season as QB1 came down in the early hours of August 29th. While this disappointed many who wanted to see Drake Maye go immediately, it was ultimately the best call in the team's long-term interest. While he's not flashy, he had great success running with Alex Van Pelt back in Cleveland in 2022. Not that they'll run the table with him or anything to open the year, but Brissett has been around the block and isn't a stranger to navigating some murky waters on the protection front.
Now, I will also say this. Before we got into the preseason, I believed the best course of action with Maye was that he shouldn't play a meaningful snap until after the Week 14 bye week. After his preseason, I'm much more inclined to see him come in earlier, should that be necessary. In short, he's farther along in his NFL development than I expected at the beginning of the year. Notably, his footwork and ability to move around in the pocket are much better than what I saw in the handful of UNC All-22 looks I got to see. And obviously, the arm talent and the ability to create with his legs have translated beautifully if the Washington game is any indication.
Another big reason why I'm not too worried about Brissett starting is the schedule they have right away. The Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, 49ers, and Dolphins can all crank up the heat in the pass rush department, but four of those five teams (Bengals, Seahawks, Jets, and Dolphins) all have some question marks in the run defense department; those first three teams sitting bottom eight in rush defense from a year ago, while the Dolphins will have to navigate the losses of Christian Wilkins and Jerome Baker. I'd expect some run-heavy game plans no matter what that first month of the season, but if it's clear Maye gives them a better shot at winning, I'd be ok making the switch right before or after the London game against the Jags.
The Bottom Line
While I think it's more than fair to say this year's Patriots team will likely miss the postseason for the third season in a row, what would make the mark of a successful season for where they are at? For me, they have to do these three things: 1) Be competitive against top competition. The Patriots have no shortage of tough games this year with the second hardest strength of schedule in the NFL, featuring seven games vs. five 2023 playoff teams, plus some teams just missing the cut. Not that they need to win against the 49ers, for instance (I'd put the odds of that happening around the 1% mark), but if they can at least prove in their current state, they can stay competitive with some of the NFL's best, that would make me feel great about the direction of this franchise.
2) Have at least one of these first or second-year players turn into a standout performer before the year is out (excluding Christian Gonzalez, for obvious reasons). We talked a bit about Ja'Lynn Polk and Keion White as guys to keep an eye out on, but if Pop Douglas can really progress in year two, one of these two rookie lineman or Sidy Sow can come into their own, or even if Drake Maye gets inserted into the starting offense and looks as good as he did in the preseason, that would be a godsend.
3) Define What Patriot Football is Without Bill Belichick. An old quote from Jimmy Johnson once he took over at The U was that he wasn't inherently trying to change things, given how they were coming off of a National Title before he came in; instead, he was looking to refine things. I bring this up because when you look at the Patriots in totality, it's hard to say they weren't a sound defensive team a year ago. Still, it was clear that the offensive special teams were in shambles, and the team culture needed some tweaks after a quarter century. So my No. 1 question for Jerod Mayo now that we're nearly a week out from his first real game as a head coach would be this: What does "Patriot Football" mean in 2024? Defensively, I expect no differences, nor should there be, but he has already reshuffled the deck in offensive philosophy and has the chance to reset a long-established culture that he played and coached under however he sees fit. Seeing what unfolds once we get to Cincinnati and beyond will be fascinating.
Defined Patriots Strengths
- One of the Best All-Around Defenses in the NFL, with Continuity from Last Season (Arguably Have the Best Linebacker Room in the League)
- Intriguing Enough WR Room with Pop Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker
- Most Stable QB Situation they’ve had since Brady Left
- Enough “Patriot Way” Influence is Still in the Building, Even with a New Outlook
Defined Patriots Weaknesses
- Major Concerns about Both Tackle Spots (Assuming the Plan is Okorafor and Lowe in either spot)
- No Transcendent Offensive Skill Player/s going into the Regular Season
- One of the Worst Special Teams Units in the NFL over the Last Two Seasons
- Unclear If They Can Make Up for the Losses of Christian Barmore and Matt Judon in the Pass Rush Department for 17 Games
Record Ceiling: 7-10
Record Floor: 4-13
AFC East Finishing Position Prediction: 4th
Team MVP: Christian Gonzalez
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