Labor Day weekend is finally here, and to end this wonderful weekend of college football, Boston College and Florida State will face off. This will be FSU's second game of the season after losing in being upset by Georgia Tech in week 0. For Boston College, it will be their season opener as they welcome in new head coach Bill O'Brien. The two teams faced off last year in a nail-biting 31-29 FSU win. Could we expect another close battle this year? That could be the case as FSU is seemingly on the downhill from their 13-1 season in 2023 and Boston College is returning key pieces.
Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos went on a tear against FSU last season, accumulating 400 total yards and scoring two touchdowns. FSU hopes to contain him better this year in a sold-out home stadium. However, last week's loss to Georgia Tech showed that FSU still struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. Georgia Tech's Haynes King ran all over the Seminoles, rushing for 54 yards last week. Castellanos is an even more dangerous runner than King. Boston College smelt the blood in the water last year but couldn't pull off the upset. This year, the Eagles know how FSU bleeds and will be ready to strike come Monday night.
Game Info
Date: Monday, September 2nd
Start Time: 7:30 P.M.
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium
TV Info: ESPN (Bob Wischusen and Louis Riddick on the call)
Boston College Statistical Rankings (2023 Season)
Points Per Game: 24.8 (82nd)
Points Allowed Per Game: 28.3 (86th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 381.2 (70th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 182.5 Yards Per (110th) and 198.8 Yards Per (14th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 385.1 (86th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 182.5 Yards Per (86th) and 198.8 Yards Per (121st)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 40.45% (50th) and 40.27% (79th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 83.78% (72nd) and 92.31% (125th)
Penalties: 6.3 (86th)
Penalty Yardage: 50.7 (67th)
Injury Report
Boston College: RT Jude Bowry (Questionable), LT Logan Taylor (Doubtful)
Florida State: WR Destyn Hill (Out), WR Hykeem Williams (Questionable)
Boston College Eagles
Defense
To put it lightly, the Boston College defense last year was putrid. It was one of the worst power-five defenses in the country. They couldn't stop the run to save their lives. However, the same could be said about Georgia Tech last year, and they went out and stuffed the FSU run game last weekend. Boston College also has some key players coming back on the defensive line that can improve this defense. The Eagles are returning their entire starting front four from a season ago, including their best edge rusher, Donovan Ezeiruaku. The senior defensive end suffered through injuries last year, but in 2022, he recorded 8.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss, earning him second-team All-ACC honors. He will be paired with interior defensive lineman Cam Horsley, a 2023 All-ACC Honorable Mention. These are the two guys FSU needs to worry about most. FSU must put their star tackle, Darius Washington, on Ezeiruaku. If they do not, he may eat this offensive line alive.
The Eagles' linebacker core will be a question mark this season. After losing their star linebacker, Vinny DePalma, they'll have to rely on some new guys. One of those being Daveon Crouch. The junior only had seventeen total tackles a season ago but has high upside athletically. Because of this athleticism, he has a higher ceiling than DePalma, but he still needs to develop his play recognition. Don't be surprised if he gets lost in some plays Monday night, as he still needs some starting experience. Next to him will be a veteran, however, as Cam Arnold is returning. Arnold has 217 tackles in his career and will likely be the No. 1 option at linebacker for Boston College.
The Defensive backroom is troublesome, in my opinion. Boston College does have a clear cornerback No. 1 with Amari Jackson. The junior has started in 18 games in his two seasons and has shown to be a solid corner. He'll likely be matched against FSU's No. 1 receiving option, Malik Benson. Outside of Jackson, there aren't many experienced defensive backs on Boston College's roster. Max Tucker has shown much promise in camp this offseason but has hardly any starting experience. His performance may be determined by what FSU decides to do with their offense. If FSU runs a similar pass offense as they did last week, Tucker should have little to no problems stopping them.
Offense
The Eagles offense should scare FSU. Castellanos is explosive and the exact type of quarterback FSU has the most trouble stopping Last season, Castellanos ran for over 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns, leading the team in both stats. He is electric with the ball, and FSU struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks. Last week, King was able to pick apart the FSU defense. If the defense makes no adjustments in this game, Castellanos could easily have over 100 yards rushing. In the passing game, Castellanos struggles a little. He only threw for 15 touchdowns last year and a concerning 14 interceptions. FSU should capitalize on this weakness by forcing him to stay in the pocket and pass the ball.
Boston College had one of the best run offenses in the country last season. Much of this was due to Castellanos's success and starting running back Kyle Robichaux. Last year, Robichaux racked up 800 yards and eight touchdowns. He is a bruising back who fights well through contact and is excellent in goal-line situations. Boston College also has a running back that FSU is familiar with, Treshaun Ward, who played at FSU for four seasons and had over 1,100 rushing yards in his final two years with the team. He was a favorite amongst the fanbase and his teammates. Ward pairs well with Robichaux as a change of pace back. Ward has incredible vision and patience and can also catch the ball well.
At wide receiver, Boston College has some real heavy hitters. Returning, they have Lewis Bond, a shifty slot receiver who burned FSU last year. Bond had 646 yards and seven touchdowns a season ago. 80 yards, including one of those touchdowns, came against FSU. Lewis is a reliable receiver who is one of the most productive returning players in the ACC. It'll be all hands on deck to slow him down. Next to him will be transfer Jerand Bradley, a massive 6-foot-6 receiver. He played his previous three years at Texas Tech. In his career, he has over 1,200 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Though he has a distinct advantage against most corners due to his height, that won't be the case against FSU. FSU has many tall and long corners to deal with his height advantage. The main concern for the Seminoles should be to stop Lewis Bond.
The Boston College offensive line was solid last year and many guys are returning this year. However, they have already been riddled with injuries this season. Starters Jude Bowry and Logan Taylor are both questionable to play. That would put them down a starting guard and tackle. This would throw a wrench in their offensive goals and plans Monday. However, they still have a couple of good linemen to help out. Tackle Ozzy Trapilo was a Second Team All-ACC selection last year and Drew Kendall is an experienced center who played very well last season. They'll need both guys to have massive games if Bowry and Taylor are out.
Florida State Seminoles
Defense
The defense laid an egg last week and let down the entire fan base with their performance. Georgia Tech ran for nearly 200 yards and was sacked zero times. The defense must return with a vengeance to regain the respect they lost in Ireland. The defensive line performance last weekend was a steep drop off from the 2023 unit. The same can be said with the linebacker play. They were lost against Georgia Tech and looked lethargic when defending the run. Castellanos has the chance to run all around them.
If FSU doesn't develop a clear game plan to stop the run and stop Castellanos, it will be Georgia Tech part two. FSU likes to play a light box and focus on stopping the pass, but that didn't work last week. For that style of play to work, you need an excellent defensive line and linebackers, neither of which FSU seems to have. If they want to win against Boston College, they must emphasize stopping the run by giving up coverage in the passing game. This will force Castellanos to try and beat you with his arm, which is your best-case scenario. Once in a while, you may give up a decent gain, but overall, you should be happy with Castellanos throwing because he turns the ball over a lot.
FSU also has an opportunity to destroy the Boston College offensive line. They are injured and weak right now and should exploit this disadvantage. Because of these injuries, Boston College will likely be trotting out a guard to play one of the tackle positions. The FSU edge defenders should win this battle every time. They are far too talented to get run over and run through like they did in Ireland. IOf that happens again Monday, the sky will be falling in Tallahassee.
Offense
In contrast to the defense, there's a few reasons to be optimistic about FSU's offense. There needed to be more time for all the new players to get accustomed to the system and playbook at FSU. These growing pains resulted in a loss, but they still have plenty of talent. Head coach Mike Norvell took accountability for how the offense looked and said he would be working on improving the execution. One of the most promising things he pointed out was that FSU had 30 plays last week that could've been significant gains if not for one missed assignment on each play. One more week of practice isn't going to mean zero mistakes for the offense, but it should mean fewer than the 30 from last week. Norvell also admitted to the lack of creative play calling and not getting his playmakers the ball enough. You have to respect that he admits his mistakes, and there's reason to believe he will make the proper adjustments for Boston College.
One of the players who needs the ball more is Jaylin Lucas. The junior running back was explosive in his four touches last week. Norvell knows he needs more, and we could see a dominant Jaylin Lucas performance on Monday. He is deadly with the ball in his hands and should be untouchable for Boston College defenders. Running back Lawrence Toafili could also open up things for the FSU offense if he gets more chances to run the ball. He had a 28-yard touchdown run but only eight carries in the season opener. He should be featured much more as the No. 1 back in this offense as a fifth-year senior. Then there's the offensive line that struggled to block against Georgia Tech. Many of the struggles came from FSU swapping out linemen throughout the game instead of letting one group get their groove going. This led to many awkward arrangements on the line. The unit felt out of sync for most of the game.
Finally, it all comes down to Florida State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. Last week, he was crushed in the media, but the poor play-calling didn't help him. Expect him to get his chance to show his strengths this week. The Boston College corners are a weakness and FSU has the playmakers outside to win one-on-one matchups. Expect to see them air the ball out and see multiple pass completions over 40 yards. This is a chance to revitalize this offense and bring hope back to Tallahassee.
Betting Info
Point Spread: BC +16.5 (-108) | FSU -16.5 (-112)
Moneyline: BC (+525) | FSU (-750)
Over/Under: O 50 (-108) | U 50 (-112)
Lines via DraftKings as of Sunday, September 1st
Despite the slow start to the season, FSU still stands as a big favorite over Boston College. It may be recency bias, but 16.5 points feels like too much. I would take BC +16.5 in this game as a pretty safe bet. But it's a sold-out night game in Tallahassee. The last time these two played in a sold-out night game in Tallahassee was in 2022, which ended in a 44-14 FSU victory. However, this sold-out game is different as half of Doak Campbell Stadium is currently under construction, limiting the occupants and the noise the fans can make. This team is still working out its kinks and will need another week or two before they're ready to blow out teams by 20 points.
As for the over/under, I like the over in this game. Boston College will be able to score on FSU and I think Norvell's creativity will also find its way into the end zone. Having each team score at least 25 points is an easy bet. Even if FSU blows them out of the water, the total will still exceed 50. I wouldn't touch the money line in this game because of the odds, but if you want to hit it big, I'd take BC just because the odds are +525.
Prediction
Even though I told you I would take the Boston College money line if I had to bet, I still think FSU will win this game. FSU has to win this game. Their season would be in the dumpster without it. Boston College would be just fine if they walked out of Doak with a loss. They're entering a hostile environment with an angry team and a game already under their belt. BC is also breaking in a brand-new coaching staff that still needs to figure their things out. This is why FSU is walking out of Doak with a two-possession win.
Final Score: FSU 38, Boston College 24
Image credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via USA TODAY Sports
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