After a quick Bye week, Florida State is back on the field to face their next opponent, the Memphis Tigers. The two teams haven't matched up in over 30 years, but they're much more connected than you may think. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell was the Memphis head coach before accepting the job in Tallahassee. Between 2016 and 2019, Mike Norvell won thirty-eight games at Memphis. He had one of the most explosive offenses in the country and was praised for his ability to utilize his playmakers. Norvell isn't the only former Tiger on this coaching staff. When Norvell accepted the Florida State job, he also brought Adam Fuller, the 2019 Memphis defensive coordinator. The ties don't just end there, as the current Memphis head coach is Ryan Silverfield. Silverfield was an assistant coach for Mike Norvell for all four years of Norvell's tenure in Memphis. With the two head coaches being so familiar with one another, it will be interesting to see how each team adjusts. The coaching relations should make for a great storyline on Saturday afternoon.
Florida State has been on the struggle bus for seemingly nine months now. Ever since the college football playoff snub, they have not had a positive thing happen to them. Two weeks ago, they looked putrid against another mediocre, less talented ACC team. The disappointment among fans and analysts can not be understated. They'll have to beat Memphis if they want a chance to save their season from destruction and ungodly amounts of embarrassment. A week off can help a struggling team get back on track, but the issue with the 'Noles may be much more profound.
Game Info
Date: Saturday, September 14th
Start Time: Noon, Eastern
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
TV Info: ESPN (Bob Wischusen and Louis Riddick on the Call)
Memphis Tigers Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 38 (19)
Points Allowed Per Game: 17 (40th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 372 Yards (57th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 161 Yards (97th) and 211 Yards (24th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 251 Yards (19th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 150 Yards (34th) and 101 (35th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 55.56% (14th) and 56.25% (119th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 100% (1st) and 100% (66th)
Penalties: 14 (78th)
Penalty Yardage: 142 Yards (102nd)
Players Ruled Out Before Saturday's Game
Memphis Tigers: Sutton Smith
Florida State Seminoles: Destyn Hill, Jaylin Lucas
Memphis Tigers
Defense
When looking at the 2023 Memphis Tigers, the defense's lack of a pass rush immediately stood out to me. Last season, the team had twenty-three sacks, and the team leader in sacks only had three. So far, that lack of pass rush has returned this season, with them only having two sacks on the year, both from the same player. That player is Tennessee transfer Elijah Herring. Herring only had 2.5 sacks in his career going into this season but is on pace for twelve so far this year. Herring will likely be matched against Darius Washington, who struggled last week against the Boston College edge rushers. If FSU can hold off Herring, I think the pocket will be relatively clean for the 'Noles.
The star of the Memphis Defense is undoubtedly Chandler Martin. Despite being a middle linebacker, Martin led the team in sacks last year. Martin is an explosive linebacker that has a nose for the backfield. He is constantly tackling ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage. Last season, he finished the year with seventeen tackles for loss and already has three this year. He also led the team in tackles with 95 and had two interceptions, taking one to the house. Altogether, Martin led the team in four different defensive categories. He'll be looking to feast on FSU this Saturday, especially in the run game.
The top corners for the Tigers are red-shirt seniors with lots of experience. Returning for his fifth season of Memphis football is Davion Ross. Ross had a great season in 2022 but suffered a season-ending injury after only two games in 2023. Luckily for the Tigers, he's returned better than ever this season. Ross already has an interception and deflected three passes in the first two games. His only caveat is that he is undersized for an outside corner at 5'10. On the other side of Ross will be the transfer corner, Kobee Minor. Minor played last season at Indiana, and the three before that were at Texas Tech. Minor was a BIG-10 Honorable mention the previous year and will bring great experience to the cornerback position for the Tigers.
Offense
The star of the Memphis offense is senior quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an outstanding pocket passer with a terrific stat line throughout his career. Last year, he threw for 3,800 yards, thirty-eight touchdowns, and nine picks. He also gained 274 yards on the ground and five scores. The offense runs through him, plain and simple, so the FSU defensive backs must be on their A-game. However, the good thing about Seth Henigan is that he is not a scrambler like the last two quarterbacks FSU faced. This should be a massive relief for them, as they won't have to worry too much about Henigan extending drives and plays with his legs.
Mario Anderson is the starting running back for Memphis. Anderson is a transfer from South Carolina who ran for over 700 yards for the Gamecocks in 2023. Anderson is a small but sturdy back that can brutalize defenses with his power. On a play against Vanderbilt last season, he broke four tackles in two seconds and ran seventy-two yards into the end zone. One thing you don't want to do with Anderson is arm tackle because he will run through it. In his two games at Memphis so far, he's gained 171 yards but four rushing touchdowns. FSU will be in big trouble if Anderson continues his streak of finding the end zone.
The two receivers to watch on Memphis are Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee. Roc Taylor led the team in receiving yards, having gained over 1,000 yards last year. Blankumsee wasn't too far behind him, putting up 900 yards of his own and leading the team in receiving touchdowns with seven. Taylor is their big body's number one target. He stands at 6'2 but moves incredibly well for his size. He's a polished route runner, and if you give him enough room on the outside, he can out-race you to the endzone. Blankumsee will be your traditional slot guy who is quick and shifty in space. He's more explosive than Taylor but comes in a smaller package at only 5'10. FSU needs to limit Blankumsee's space and ensure they get multiple guys around him as soon as he touches the ball.
Florida State Seminoles
Defense
The FSU defense continued to struggle against Boston College. The Boston College Eagles ran for an astonishing 270 yards. This was a complete embarrassment for FSU, and if they continue to allow even 2/3 of that number, they will keep losing. It all starts up front. If the FSU front seven continues to get out-muscled and pushed around by inferior talent, there's nothing anyone can do. The linebackers continue to underperform, and the defensive line isn't as dominant as we thought. The secondary hasn't been bad in coverage, but they can improve in the run game. Too many missed tackles have occurred from the cornerbacks, and the safeties aren't playing aggressively enough. Time after time, I saw a safety wait to be blocked instead of running up and making a play themselves. That's not how you play good defense; they need to improve this week.
I can't blame the defense for everything, however, as it's hard to play good defense if your offense consistently goes three and out. For two games in a row, the opposing offense dominated the time of possession, and whenever FSU did get the ball, they quickly punted it away. You can't have a confident and robust defense if they're constantly on the field. They also need to have faith in their offense. FSU's offense needs to give the defense something to fight for. There is no faith in this offense, which means the FSU defense has no motivation. A good offense will help the defense as much as good defense will help the offense.
Offense
The most significant question mark after the Boston College game was what Mike Norvell would do at quarterback. He decided to stick with DJ Uiagalelei. The veteran quarterback has struggled in the first two games, but the whole coaching staff seems still to have faith in him, as there's been no wavering away from him. On Saturday, he'll have another chance to prove himself, and if it doesn't go well, we may see another quarterback next week.
To make matters worse for this offense, running back Jaylin Lucas has been ruled out for the season. Lucas was among the few bright spots on the roster and the team's kick and punt returner. In the few times he touched the ball, Jaylin Lucas showed his explosiveness. Almost every touch he had resulted in a first down. Mike Norvell even said before the Boston College game that they needed to give the ball to Lucas more. It was an unfortunate loss, but luckily for FSU fans, Lucas will return in 2025.
On the bright side, FSU will most likely be seeing the sophomore debut of Hykeem Williams on Saturday. Williams missed the first two games of the season due to injury but should be good to go against Memphis. He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school due to his elite size and speed, but he is considered a very raw prospect. He appeared in limited games last season but did record a touchdown on an impressive catch and run. He will certainly not be able to turn this offense around single-handedly, but he could be a much-needed spark.
Two weeks ago, Boston College dominated the offensive line. This was embarrassing, as this offensive line was supposed to be one of the best in the country. Donovan Ezeiruaku terrorized FSU all night and recorded quarterback pressures throughout the game. On top of the lack of pass protection, the run blocking and all-around running attack are awful. FSU ran for 21 yards against Boston College. It is embarrassing and unacceptable. There is no reason why an offensive line filled with primarily seniors who have all started multiple seasons of high-level college football should put out this product. I don't know exactly what the issue is, but if I were Mike Norvell, I'd have spent the whole bye week trying to figure it out.
Betting Info
Points Spread: FSU -6.5 (-115) | Memphis +6.5 (-105)
Money Line: FSU -265 | Memphis +215
Over/Under: O 53.5 (-112) | U 53.5 (-108)
Lines Via Draft Kings, September 12th
Having FSU favored to beat anyone by 6.5 points is insane to me—especially against this Memphis team, ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll. The apparent bet here is the Memphis point spread. I've said to bet the opposing team point spread every game this year, and so far, I have been correct. The same goes for the money line. The odds say you should pick Memphis for the money line. Throwing money at the FSU moneyline is a high-risk, low-reward bet and should be discouraged. I would choose the under in this game as the last two FSU games have also been low-scoring, specifically on the FSU side. The matchup and the odds tell me you shouldn't trust anything associated with the Florida State Seminoles.
Prediction
Finally, despite my trashing of FSU and their Icarus style falling from the top, I will still pick them to win. It may be my homer heart that still lingers on to hope, but I think FSU can finally pull off their first win. To me, this game reminds me of FSU vs Syracuse in 2021. That day, FSU was 0-4 but got enough offensive production to take down the Orange. It came down to a game-winning field goal, but a win is a win. This game could also come down to a game-winning field goal, and I trust FSU's kicker. FSU is finally playing a pocket-passing quarterback, not a dual-threat runner, which will also help them here. Even if Seth Henigan is a much better thrower than Haynes King and Thomas Castellanos, I'd still much rather play him. The game will come down to the wire, in my opinion, but FSU finally gets over the hump and wins their first game of the season by hitting a game-winning field goal as time expires.
Final Score: FSU 23 Memphis 20
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