Since the start of the Sirianni/Hurts era in Philadelphia, the Eagles are 2-3 in the playoffs. One of those losses came in the Super Bowl to the Kansas City Chiefs, and the other two were blowout Wildcard losses to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 and last season. The two teams also faced off in the regular season last year, with the Eagles winning that contest. In last season's playoff loss, Baker Mayfield picked apart the Eagles secondary, throwing for 337 yards and three touchdowns in a 32-9 victory over an AJ Brown-less Eagles squad.
This is Philadelphia's third straight game against an NFC South opponent; they are 1-1 against the division so far, with a last-second loss to the Falcons and a last-second win over the Saints. The Buccaneers had a good start to the season with victories over the Commanders and Lions, but last week, they suffered a 26-7 loss to the then-winless Broncos. Both teams are 2-1 and second in their division. After this week, the Eagles will be one of four teams to have the earliest possible bye week.
Game Info
Date: September 29th, 2024
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Tampa, FL
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Tom Brady and Kevin Burkhardt on the call)
Eagles Uniform Info: Green helmet, green jersey, white pants
Buccaneers Statistical Rankings 2024
Points Per Game: 21.3 (15th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 20.7 (15th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 277.0 (26th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 186.0 (23rd) | 91.0 (26th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 371.3 (28th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 233.7 (24th) | 137.3 (25th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 41.2% (T-10th) | 34.2% (15th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 55.6% (T-13th) | 42.9% (14th)
Penalties: 16 (T-8th)
Penalty Yardage: 100 (2nd)
Players Already Ruled Out
Buccaneers: CB Bryce Hall, DE Earnest Brown IV, RB Chase Edmunds, WR Rakim Jarrett, OT Silas Dzansi, G Sua Opeta
Eagles: WR AJ Brown, WR DeVonta Smith, CB James Bradberry, WR Britain Covey, WR Jacob Harris, S Sydney Brown, WR Ainias Smith
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense
The Tampa Bay defense allows the fifth most yards per game in the NFL, which isn't ideal in any matchup, but especially against a Philadelphia team averaging the second most yards per game. Philadelphia's drives have tended to stall out in enemy territory, and Tampa Bay's red zone defense hasn't been amazing, but it hasn't been awful either. The Bucs blitz more than any other team in the league but have only gotten home and walked away with a sack twice this season. The last time the Tampa Bay defense faced Jalen Hurts, they blitzed him on 27 of his 39 dropbacks, which resulted in a 32-9 victory. This season, Hurts is completing 73% of his passes when blitzed and has only been sacked twice when being blitzed. How he responds to Tampa sending pressure could be a massive factor in this game.
Tampa Bay has two interceptions so far, both coming from Jared Goff in Week 2. The team has 16 pass deflections, six coming from Zyon McCollum, who also has one of the previously mentioned interceptions. McCollum and the rest of the Tampa defense get a much easier week than anticipated with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both out. Unfortunately for them, the league's leading rusher, Saquon Barkley, will still be there. Tampa Bay allows the seventh most rush yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry, the fourth worst in the league. Barkley is averaging 117 yards per game, averaging 5.6 a pop. Tampa's primary focus will have to be Barkley, which is a tall task.
Offense
Baker Mayfield has been extremely accurate, throwing the football to start the season, completing 74% of his passes through three games. The Eagles secondary has allowed a league-best 57% completion percentage to start the season. Eagles CB Darius Slay left the game last week with a knee injury but is ready to play and says it's not a concern, so Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be going up against a fully healthy secondary. Mike Evans has had a slow start to the season, with only 10 receptions for 120 yards, but he has reeled in two touchdowns. Chris Godwin has been playing in the slot this year, which matches him up against Avonte Maddox, who has allowed five of 11 passes that have gone his way to be caught.
The Eagles' run defense was strong last week but still allows the second-most yards per carry in the NFL. The Buccaneers' run offense has been weak, to say the least. They have only run the ball 69 times so far, for a total of 273 yards, 154 of them coming from rookie RB Bucky Irving, who has overshadowed Rachaad White in all three games played this season despite getting fewer carries in two of the three games. Last week was the first-week Tamp Bay seemed to rely on Bucky Irving more, so his role in the offense could grow. If there's ever a time to get the run game going in Tampa Bay, it's now.
Philadelphia Eagles
Defense
If the Week 3 Eagles defense shows up this week, it could be a long day for Tampa Bay. Unfortunately, seeing one week of a good defense doesn't mean that defense will show up every week, as we say in the first two weeks of the season. Hopefully, they found their groove and can stick with it because, as the saying goes, defense wins championships. The Buccaneers run game has been lackluster outside of rookie RB Bucky Irving, who is the team's leading rusher averaging 6.2 ypc on only 25 attempts. Rachaad White has six more carries than Irving but has only run for 66 yards through three games. Baker Mayfield had a great week one throwing four TDs against a Commanders defense that had given up 30+ points in two of three games, since then he hasn't passed for more than 185 yards and has thrown two TDs and two interceptions.
The Buccaneers' o-line has given up 13 sacks through three games. Last week, we saw Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis arrive and get to the quarterback multiple times, with Davis getting a sack and Carter having two PDs and two QB hits. The Birds have four sacks on the season, none coming from free agent signing Bryce Huff, who has yet to show he deserves his three-year, $51 million contract. Josh Sweat has also been almost nonexistent to start the year, but this could be the week the edge rushers show up. The Birds, as a whole, did a good job pressuring Carr last week; they need to secure the sacks now. Last week, Denver's defense got to Mayfield SEVEN times so that Philly could get four plus sacks realistically.
Offense
This offense has been solid to start the year despite stupid mistakes and poor decision making. Despite scoring only 15 points last week, the Eagles offense drove down the field easily and had their fair share of big plays. Jalen Hurts is currently fourth in passing yards and second in total yards, all while completing 70% of his passes. The only issue is he has four interceptions and two fumbles lost. If Hurts cleans up his turnovers, he could be an MVP candidate yet again. Speaking of MVP candidates, Saquon Barkley should continue his dominance this week against a Buccaneers defense that allows 137 rush yards per game and 4.9 ypc. Barkley leads the league in rush yards and is tied for most total TDs.
AJ Brown will miss his third straight game, and DeVonta Smith will miss out this week after suffering a concussion in last week's game. Britain Covey was also added to the IR, causing the Eagles to sign recently cut WR John Ross III. Jahan Dotson has yet to make an impact on this Eagles offense, but coming into the game as WR1, he has no choice but to show up and show out. Dallas Goedert is coming off a career-high 170-yard game, although Tampa Bay has been solid defending TEs this season, not allowing more than three receptions to a TE in any game this season. Last week, I said Philly would have to establish the run early, and they didn't even give Barkley the ball in the first quarter. They didn't score until the fourth quarter, when they finally fed Saquon. This week, if they start the game by handing the ball to Barkley, the offense should be just fine, even without swole and skinny Batman.
Betting Info
Points Spread: PHI -1 (-110) | TB +1 (-110)
Moneyline: PHI (-120) | TB (+100)
Over/Under: O 42 (-110) | U 42 (-110)
Lines Via Draft Kings as of September 28th
Prediction
If the Eagles' defense can play how it did last week against the number one offense, then this game could be ugly, but seeing that the Philadelphia offense will have their top two receivers on the sideline, it should be a close game. The Buccaneers' offense has been good but not great to start the season. Their run game has been lacking, especially since Philly shut down Kamara and the Saints' run game last week. If Hurts cleans up his turnovers, and Sirianni doesn't leave points on the board, it should be smooth sailing for Philadelphia. This one could very well be another nail-biter; hopefully, for Eagles fans, there will be no near-heart attacks this week.
Final Score: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 20
Main Image via Getty Images
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