In their first matchup of the season, the Commanders were the one seed, and the race for the NFC East was a race between these two teams. Since that game, the Eagles have been 4-0 while the Commanders have been 2-1; the Eagles have led the division by three games with a 12-2 record. Last time they faced off, the Eagles won 26-18; heading into that game, these were two of the top rushing offenses in the league alongside the Ravens. Philly finished with 228 rushing yards, 146 of them coming from Saquon Barkley, while the Commanders had 93 as a team. Hurts passed for 221 yards, with AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon all having 50+ receiving yards. Quinyon Mitchell held Terry McLaurin to zero targets when defending him, so it will be interesting to see how that matchup plays out this time around.
Game Info
Date: December 22nd, 2024
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Landover, MD
Stadium: Northwest Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Joe Davis and Greg Olsen the call)
Eagles Uniform Info: Green helmet, white jersey, black pants
Commanders Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 28.3 (6th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.5 (16th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 373.9 (5th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 218.4 (16th) | 155.5 (3rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 321.8 (11th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 189.6 (4th) | 132.1 (25th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 44.94% (#6) | 40.85% (#22)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 60.34% (#8) | 65.00% (#29)
Penalties: 87 (T-14th)
Penalty Yardage: 704 (T-14th)
Players Already Ruled Out
Commanders: LB Cole Holcomb, DT Montravius Adams
Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert, LB Ben VanSumeren, WR Britain Covey
Washington Commanders
Defense
The Commanders' defense had a tough outing the last time they faced the Eagles, and it may be even more challenging this time. Their pass defense is miles better than their rushing defense, hence why Saquon ran for almost 150 yards the first time. They didn't do a great job neutralizing Hurts in the first contest either, letting him pass for 221 yards, but they did hold him to a 64% completion percentage. They now have to deal with an offense that has figured out their passing game, as last week they had to rely on it due to the strength of the Steelers' rush defense. The Commanders' D-line needs to do everything they can to slow down the run game and try and get Philly to pass the ball and play the Commanders' game.
Washington has 35 sacks on the year, no player has double digits. The closest is Dante Fowler Jr., who has a team-high 8.5 sacks. He also leads the team in TFLs, having 12 of their 66. No other player has over 10, but Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner have nine and eight, so they are right there. They only have five interceptions on the year, coming from four different players. Mike Sainristil is the only player with two. He is also the only player with 10+ pass deflections, having 11 of the team's 42. The Commanders do a good job forcing fumbles; they've done it 12 times this season, recovering nine. Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, and Jeremy Chinn are the only players to have both a forced fumble and a fumble recovery, with one FF and two FR each.
Offense
Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels is leading a high-powered Washington offense, which is a huge reason the team has been so successful this season. He's passed for 3,073 yards and 17 touchdowns while throwing just six interceptions, completing a very impressive 70% of his 393 pass attempts. He also has the second most rush yards by a quarterback this season, with 656; only Lamar Jackson has more, with 743. Daniels also has scored six touchdowns using his legs, for 23 total TDs. The last time he saw this Eagles defense, he was held to 191 passing yards on 32 attempts, and Reed Blakenship picked him off. He did throw a garbage time TD to Eagles legend Zach Ertz, who also caught the two-point conversion. His number one target, Terry McLaurin, could eclipse 1,000 yards on the season this week, as he's currently at 969. However, depending on how long he's being locked up in Quinyonamo Bay, he might have to wait til next week.
The Commanders have the third-best rushing defense in the league, but last time they faced Philly, their run game was nowhere near where it usually is. They rush for 155 yards a game but had just 93 against Philly last time. Brian Robinson Jr. had the most on the team with 63. He also leads the team in rush yards on the season, posting 705. Austin Ekeler has 355 on 74 attempts but also has the fourth most receiving yards on the team with 346. The last time he faced the Birds, he had just 7 yards on two rushing attempts but was the team's leading receiver, collecting 89 yards; no other player had over 50.
Philadelphia Eagles
Defense
The Eagles defense held the Commanders to just 18 points the first time and haven't allowed a team to score over 20 points since. The Birds' elite LB duo of Zach Baun and Nakobe Dean put on a clinic in that contest, combining for 25 tackles, one TFL, and two pass deflections. Reed Blakenship also had double-digit tackles, plus a PBU and a game-icing diving interception. Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, and Nolan Smith Jr. each got to the QB for the team's three sacks. The defensive highlight of this game was rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell having what still is the best performance of his young career, holding one of the league's top receivers in Terry McLaurin to 0 targets, wiping him out of the game, forcing Washington to find other places to pass the ball. Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz were the team's two leading receivers, which isn't the most characteristic stat for that offense.
The Eagles' defense is simply the best in the league at this point, and there might not even be a valid argument against it. They give up just 17.6 points per game and 275.6 yards per game, first in the league in both categories. They also give up the fewest yards per play and the third least touchdowns per game. Teams pass for 173.4 yards per game against them while being held to the fourth-lowest completion percentage in the league at 61.8%. Not only does this defense play at an extremely elite level, but they also play clean games, having the fewest penalties and penalty yards per game of any defense. It was a tough battle for Washington's offense last time, and it will likely be again.
Offense
For those keeping their eyes on Saquon Barkley and his climb to become the all-time single-season rushing yards record, this could be a huge week for him as Washington has the seventh-worst rushing defense in the league. He had just 64 yards on the ground last week, which, believe it or not, is a good sign for this week. Al, but one time this season, Saquon has rushed for under 100 yards in a game. The following week, he goes for 140+ yards. In Week 2 he had 95 yards and followed it up with 147. In Week 6 he had 47 yards and then in Week 7 he went for 176 against his former team. Week 10, he went for 66 yards, and the next week, he had 146 against the Commanders. He needs 418 more yards in the last three games of the season to break Eric Dickerson's record. He'd need to average 139.3 yards to do so.
Jalen Hurts shushed critics last week when he threw for 290 yards while completing 78% of his passes. Despite what you see on social media or hear from all the talking heads in the media, Hurts has been a major part of the Birds' success this season. During the 10-game win streak, Jalen Hurts has been especially good at closing out games. In that span during the fourth quarter, he ranked first in completion percentage (79.4%), yards per attempt (11.6), and passer rating (144.5). He has seven touchdowns and seven incompletions during the streak.
Last week was also the first game of the season. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith both had 100 receiving yards in the same game and walked away with a touchdown.
Betting Info
Points Spread: PHI -3.5 (-110) | PIT +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: PHI (-185) | PIT (+154)
Over/Under: O 45.5 (-112) | U 45.5 (-108)
Lines Via Draft Kings as of 12/20/24
Prediction
Originally I chose the Eagles and Commanders to split the season series with each team winning at home, but I unbiasedly don't see Washington winning this game. Saquon Barkley is poised for another big game against a lackluster rushing defense, and the Birds showed last week that when they want to air the ball out, they can. Philly's defense shut down the Commanders' offense for the most part in their first meeting, and they've only gotten stronger since then. I wouldn't put it past the Commanders to win, but I predict the Eagles to win this one in comfortable fashion.
Final Score: Eagles 27, Commanders 17
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