Week 3 is the second of three straight matchups against NFC South opponents. The Eagles lost 22-21 to the Atlanta Falcons last week, face the New Orleans Saints this week, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next week. Philadelphia lost in the final seconds against the Falcons after known Prime Time/clutch time performer Kirk Cousins strung together a nearly flawless final scoring drive that picked apart this Birds' defense. The Eagles are favored to lose this week in NOLA but are currently favored to win against the Buccs in Tampa. The Eagles need to win as many games against divisional rivals and NFC opponents as possible to help out with possible future tiebreakers come playoff seeding time.
The Saints are off to a scorching hot 2-0 start, scoring the 2nd most points through two games in NFL history with 91. The only team to have more was the 2009 Saints, who had 93 and later won the Super Bowl that year. Derek Carr has thrown five touchdowns and one interception. Alvin Kamara gave the Cowboys hell with 180 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
Jalen Hurts is 2-0 against the Saints in his career, the first win coming in his first career start. In those two games, most of the damage Hurts did came from his legs. He didn't pass for more than 170 yards in either of those two games and only had a passing touchdown in one. However, he has 175 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns against them. In total, Hurts has 489 total yards, four total touchdowns, and zero turnovers in two career games against the Saints. Hopefully, for Eagles fans, this trend continues.
Game Info
Date: September 22nd, 2024
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: New Orleans, LA
Stadium: Caesars Superdome
TV Info: FOX (Joe Davis and Greg Olsen on the call)
Eagles Uniform Info: Green helmet, white pants, green pants
Falcons Statistical Rankings 2024 (Through two weeks)
Points Per Game: 45.5 (1st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 14.5 (4th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 405.5 (3rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 220.5 (11th) | 185.0 (3rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 273.0 (7th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 210.0 (20th) | 63.0 (3rd)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 57.1 (2nd) | 37.6% (5th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 88.9% (2nd) | 20.0% (T-2nd)
Penalties: 15 (T-12th)
Penalty Yardage: 135 (8th)
Players Already Ruled Out
Saints: N/A
Eagles: WR AJ Brown, CB James Bradberry, WR Jacob Harris, S Sydney Brown, WR Ainias Smith
New Orleans Saints
Defense
The Saints' defense has been solid to start the year, but some of their numbers could be deceiving. They're currently the third-ranked rushing defense. However, both of their wins have been blowouts in which they start scoring early and often, so neither team they faced was in a position to run the ball. They currently allow the 12th most passing yards per game in the league, allowing 56% of their opponents' passes to be caught.
Against the Cowboys, the Saints defense had two interceptions and forced a fumble that they could not recover. In Week 1, they had two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Jalen Hurts has thrown three picks through two weeks and fumbled twice, losing one of them. If these trends continue, the Saints could once again build a big lead early and take Saquon Barkley out of the equation, and with AJ Brown most likely missing his second game in a row, that would be huge.
Marshon Lattimore missed last week's game and is questionable to play this week. Luckily for the Saints, if they do have to battle without their CB1, the Birds will be without their WR1. If Lattimore does play, he'll still have his hands full guarding DeVonta Smith. Last time Smitty was WR1 for the Eagles going up against Lattimore, he finished with four receptions for 61 yards and no TDs.
Offense
Derek Carr is off to an incredible start. He leads the league in passing touchdowns with five and QBR with 96.2, the closest to him is Kyler Murray who has a QBR of 91.3, and nobody else in the league is over 90. He's been extremely accurate, as he's thrown only nine incompletions through two games, completing 77% of his passes. Carr has thrown one interception, but it was on a pass that hit Olave in the hands and went into the air, so not Carr's fault. Carr could be in for another huge performance if the Eagles' secondary plays how it did in the second half of last week.
Somebody who will almost 100% have a huge performance is Alvin Kamara. Kamara has 198 rushing yards and four rushing TDs through two weeks, averaging 5.7 a carry. Kamara also has 92 receiving yards and a receiving TD. He might not be huge in the pass game against Philly who has only allowed 57 receiving yards to three total RBs so far, however none of those RBs are as good in the pass game as Kamara. To my gamblers out there, put the house on Alvin Kamara anytime TD.
The Saints offensive line has protected Carr beautifully to start the season, allowing only two sacks for two yards. One of those "sacks" was Carr running out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage to keep the clock running, as opposed to throwing the ball away. They haven't allowed their QB to be hit at all outside of those two sacks. RT Trevor Penning essentially erased Micah Parsons, who is one of the top pass rushers in the league, out of the game last week. Going up against an Eagles defense that hasn't been able to get to the QB much to start the season, New Orleans' o-line should continue its dominance.
Philadelphia Eagles
Defense
This Eagles defense is going to need to look like a completely new unit this week if they want to slow down this Saints offense. New Orleans ranks within the top five in points per game, yards per game, and rushing yards per game. This defense ranks BOTTOM five in every single one of those categories. The area where this defense does succeed is on third down and in the red zone. The Eagles have allowed opponents to score a TD in the red zone just 28.6% of the time, but the problem is that they've allowed three TDs outside of the red zone. On third down, opponents pick up the first down 25% of the time, which ranks third in the league.
Through two games, the Eagles' pass rush has been lackluster, to say the least. They have three sacks so far, and having Bryce Huff, Josh Sweat, Nolan Smith, Brandon Graham, and Jalen Carter, you'd think at least one of the three sacks belongs to one of them. You'd be wrong, in Week 1 Zack Baun had two sacks, and last week the only one to get to the QB was Milton Williams. If Philly had trouble getting to a one-legged 36-year-old Kirk Cousins, it will be a struggle for them to get to any QB. With how dominant this Saints o-line is, this most likely isn't the week the Eagles figure it out, but stranger things have happened (like the Falcons winning a game they had a 0.7% chance of winning at one point).
According to John Clark on NBC Sports Philly, Nick Sirianni's message is, "You have to earn the right to rush the passer by first stopping the run." The only thing worse than the Eagles' pass rush is their run defense, allowing a league worst 6.4 yards per carry, and now they face a guy who is averaging 5.7. Philadelphia most likely won't be able to stop the run, but if they can contain it and force third downs, they have a shot at slowing down this offense.
Offense
This offense is off to a weird start. In Week 1, the offense looked stale outside of Saquon Barkley and made many mistakes, yet they still scored 34 points. In Week 2 the offense made less mistakes, Jalen Hurts looked more confident and was playing a clean game, and Saquon started hot and eventually got slowed down by the Falcons defense and they only scored 21 points. Hopefully, Philly figures it out this week and can play a clean game while putting up points. The decision making also needs to be better, as the Eagles left three points on the board in the first quarter and lost by one.
With how strong the Saints' run defense has looked, getting Saquon started early will be necessary. New Orleans allows just 3.1 ypc. However, the running backs they've faced are Eagles legend Miles Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Boone, Ezekiel Elliot, Rico Dowdle, and Deuce Vaughn. Of the running backs named, the most ypc any of them averaged was 4.4, precisely what Barkley is averaging on the season. The sooner the Eagles establish the run, the quicker they'll get a feel for how much success they can have on the ground, and it'll open up the passing game and set up opportunities for Hurts to use his legs, which he's done very effectively against New Orleans in his career.
Jalen Hurts looked much more confident and comfortable last week compared to Week 1 and most of last season. He has an excellent track record against the Saints, so if he can carry the confidence he had last week into this week, he could have a huge bounce back. That could be the key to getting this offense into a more clean and consistent groove. Hurts has thrown for 461 yards on the season, completing 67.2% of his passes and tossing three touchdowns. He also has three interceptions, which taints the rest of his numbers. Hurts struggled with turnover all of last season. However, he has never had a turnover against New Orleans (knock on wood).
Betting Info
Points Spread: NO -3 (+100) | PHI +3 (-120)
Moneyline: NO (-148 ) | PHI (+124)
Over/Under: O 49.5 (-108) | U 49.5 (-112)
Lines Via Draft Kings as of September 20th
Prediction
This is Philly's first away game of the season; it doesn't help that it's against the hottest team in the league. I think this could and should be a competitive game, but it could also look a lot like last week's Saints vs. Cowboys game if the Eagles' offense can't keep up. I don't see the Eagle's defense doing much against the Saints, so it'll be up to Hurts and Company to keep up. Even if they can, the Saints should win this game. Everywhere the Eagles struggle, the Saints succeed, which is a recipe for disaster for Philadelphia.
Final Score: Saints 34, Eagles 24
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