For the second and final time in 2024, two of the top three selected quarterbacks in this most recent draft class are set to clash in year one, both of which have featured Bears' gunslinger Caleb Williams. Of course, that first matchup, against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders at FedEx Field, didn't exactly end well for the USC products squad...
Not to go full Cowherd here, but the Bears, as an outsider for a "Chicago Based" site, are like one of those car crashes you drive by; it looks rough, but you simply cannot look away. They've been outscored 35-9 as of the hail mary snap, have lost two in a row now for the second time this year. Their only wins come against the Jags, Panthers, a Rams team down several key offensive pieces, and the Titans in a game where all 24 of the Bears points were either defensive or on special teams.
The 4-4 record the Bears tout doesn't surprise me, but the way they've lost some of these games has confirmed many of the concerns I and many others had coming into the year. This team had glaring holes at every offensive line spot save for right tackle and did nothing to remedy that. Although I liked the hiring a lot in the offseason, OC Shane Waldron is running an offense that's statistically worse, not better, than the Luke Getsy-Justin Fields tandem of a year ago, despite adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to the wide receiver room. And to top it all off, despite shameless propaganda throughout the single worst running of Hard Knocks making you like him, Matt Eberflus has done nothing to prove those who said he should've been fired last offseason (me) wrong.
Needless to say, this Bears team is on the verge of a lost season, and that's for several reasons. Does that mean the Patriots are in for a walk in the park? Absolutely not. Once you get to the bulk of guys on this team, especially on defense, you certainly see why Bears fans entered the year with a ton of optimism.
Game Info
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Stadium: Soldier Field
TV Info: FOX (Kevin Kugler and Daryl Johnston on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: White Tops, Blue Pants
Bears Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 21.5 (19th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.5 (5th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 294.6 Yards (29th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 182.1 Yards Per (29th) and 112.5 Yards Per (23rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 322.9 Yards (12th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 191.3 Yards Per (8th) and 131.6 Yards Per (20th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 31.5% (31st) and 33% (8th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 56% (4th) and 40.9% (3rd)
Penalties: 51 (t-25th)
Penalty Yardage: 373 Yards (27th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Bears: Jaquan Brisker (SAF), Braxton Jones (OT), Darnell Wright (OT), and Kiran Amegadjie (OT) (IDL Andrew Billings and CB Jaylon Jones both were placed on IR on Thursday)
Patriots: Kyle Dugger and Christian Elliss
Chicago Bears
Defense
One of the biggest storylines with this Bears defense involves a player they've been without for quite some time, safety Jaquan Brisker, who hasn't played a down since suffering a concussion vs. Carolina back in Week 5. Sadly, concussions have been a big storyline lately with the former Penn State standout, and then with Saints wideout Chris Olave suffering his second one of this season alone after a vicious hit over the middle, also against the Panthers, and with it being nearly a month since Brisker last played, you hope he's ok for the long haul, not even from a football standpoint.
Losing Brisker hasn't hurt them in the points allowed department (before last Sunday in Arizona). Still, they've given up notably more yards per game in the three games without him compared to the four full games with him. These last two weeks alone, the Bears have allowed 381 rushing yards vs. Arizona and Washington at 5.6 a pop. What will not help things out is that they'll be without Andrew Billings for the remainder of the year due to a torn pec. Eight games in, he was the only Bears defensive lineman (interior or edge defender) with over 145 run-defending snaps. That's not the kind of guy you can easily replace midway through the year. Think of it as if the Patriots lost Davon Godchaux for the year; the same type of impact. Also, watch if the Patriots roll out in 12 personnel against the Bears base 4-3 defense in the running game. The Cardinals had the Bears in hell in those looks working inside the tackles last week. Not that the Patriots running game has been anything to write home about, but it's worth watching.
Coverage-wise, Jaylon Johnson is the name you'll get familiar with on Sunday. He's blossomed into one of the best corners in the entire league over the last couple of seasons and, with Brisker out, is comfortably the best player in Chicago's secondary. Outside of him and Kevin Byard, there isn't much that jumps out. Of course, there's Tyrique Stevenson, and even with everything that went wrong vs. Washington, he has objectively had a terrible season. He was responsible for waking up Nico Collins in that Texans game for absolutely no reason, and then in that Commanders game, he gave up a bomb to Terry McLaurin on a third and nine due to bad technique and then drew an awful unnecessary roughness on him as well. He's a net negative defender that should be considered the point of attack for Drake Maye and Alex Van Pelt.
Offense
A bad Bears offensive line will enter this game as shorthandedly as possible. Both starting tackles, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright, have already been ruled out, as has top swing tackle and Yale Legend Kiran Amegadjie. Not the kind of news you're trying to hear a week after your group made the Arizona Cardinals, one of the worst pass-rushing teams in football before last week, look like the 2011 New York Giants. Caleb Williams being sacked at least SIX TIMES in a game TWICE in his first eight career starts is simply unsustainable, especially when bad pass rushes can tee off.
Williams, my top QB in this last class, has had some ups this year but has yet to have the overall success that others, namely Daniels, have seen for factors both in and out of his control. It's not his fault the Bears didn't give him enough protection upfront, and Waldron hasn't panned out, but Williams hasn't been perfect by any means. Chase Daniels did an extended breakdown on Twitter of most of his shortcomings against the Cardinals, but one of the big things was his unwillingness to take what was given to him, speciffically underneath. His ability to make Superman-level plays is his biggest strength and weakness, which he's still struggling with as a pro. It's not a reason to bail on him by any means, but it's certainly something you'd like to see him get better at.
The one area where the Bears did setup Williams well is with his pass catchers. Rome Odunze has been great, sitting sixth among rookies in yards per game. Then, of course, you have D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen to contend with, as well as Cole Kmet at tight end. There is not going to be a ton of room to breathe for this Patriots secondary, which will be without Kyle Dugger again.
New England Patriots
Defense
Before we get into some of the keys defensively this week, the Patriots made a bit of a surprise move yesterday evening by picking up well-traveled veteran Yannick Ngakoue off the waiver wire, who most recently was in Baltimore. He was also with the Bears last season. My assumption is that's the big reason why this happened (inside intel), but this is a guy who you know still has some pass-rush chops. In his last four seasons, including a handful of games this year, he has 25 sacks and 174 pressures in his previous 1385 pass rush snaps (12.5% pressure rate). I like this move for New England, for a team that's been anemic rushing the passer, to get a veteran for basically nothing for a nine-game sample. He almost certainly won't play on Sunday, but I'm excited to see how much they get him involved off the edge once he's good to go.
Sticking to this week now, there's no excuse for the Patriots not to get home if the Cardinals could. If Caleb Williams is going to force plays to go long and not take what's in front of him, Keion White and the gang cannot let him off the hook. To White's credit, he looked excellent on most of his pass-rush snaps last week, especially in those vs. J.C. Latham and Pete Skoronski. There isn't a single guy on this Bears front who's on par with those two, and even if he's getting double-teamed, White's a guy who needs to get home again. He's been working on zero sacks since Week 2.
A level back, I'm finally getting my wish of an expanded role for Sione Takitaki because the corresponding move for getting Ngakoue was releasing Raekwon McMillian. With Christian Elliss out this week, that means only he and Jahlani Tavai are the only two rostered linebackers as of this moment, and although a practice squad elevation is almost certainly coming, I think we're finally getting him on a regular basis from here on out. Takitaki was only out there for 12 snaps last week (five in coverage), but he showed some good chops in zone looks. Certainly, a guy who'll play a big part in this one over the middle and inside the numbers in general.
How the Patriots end up assigning their corner matchups this week might be the most fascinating it'll be all season. Moore is almost certainly going to see a ton of Christian Gonzalez, but I wonder how much, since Rome Oduzne would have a notable size advantage over every other Patriots corner. It could be a returning Alex Austin on Odunze, which is quite the way to return for him. He's only played once all year, but he was a phenomenal story at the end of last season, giving the Patriots high-quality snaps on the boundary with injuries in the corner room last year. How much, if at all, will Marcus Jones travel into the slot with Keenan Allen this week? That's a definitive size disadvantage that the Bears would go after with impunity.
Offense
Mike Onwenu started at right tackle last Sunday just to get moved back inside once they realized that Jeffrey Simmons was wrecking shop, which was a bit of a sore spot. The good news is that he's going back to starting at guard. Up until Friday, it looked like he'd be starting at left guard instead of right. Why, you might be asking? It's/will have been/ to get Layden Robinson live game reps at right guard, where he was benched last week. My issue here isn't that the Patriots are giving Robinson chances as a rookie; quite frankly, it's the right thing to do. Why move Onwenu to the opposite side of the line in a year where he's already bounced between two spots? Friday's practice still saw Onwenu at right guard and Mike Jordan at left, but who knows how they'll line up on Sunday.
Regardless, the Patriots' offensive line has been among the worst run-blocking units in the league, if not the worst. Rhamondre Stevenson sounded as upset as he could've been without throwing anyone (coaches) under the bus when asked postgame last week about the lack of success on the ground. Drake Maye being the Patriots leading rusher in every game he's started and finished this year is inexcusable, especially considering one of those outings was an 18-yard day. Stevenson is largely blameless in this situation. He made the most out of a lot of bad running lanes vs. New York and had nothing last weekend. It's up to the five big boys up front to simply be better.
It's not really a Drake Maye point to close this out, but it is more of an offense in general. However, this Bears defense is like Piranhas when it comes to creating turnovers. Do not give them the opportunity to end drives prematurely, and certainly don't give them opportunities to score on their own. The Titans can tell you all about that. As for Maye, I certainly wouldn't mind him trying to attack Jaylon Johnson in moderation like he did Derek Stingley in start No. 1, but the big thing for me this week is don't get baited into bad throws. Chicago runs a ton of zone and they'll probably have some good looks to confuse Maye.
On a final note, I'd love it if Alex Van Pelt doesn't try to do the "5D Chess against myself" strategy to close out the first half two weeks straight.
Betting Info
Points Spread: CHI -6 (-110) | NE +6 (-110)
Moneyline: CHI (-285) | NE (+230)
Over/Under: O 38.5 (-112) | U 38.5 (-108)
Lines via DraftKings as of Friday, November 8
The Bears have been one of the four worst ATS teams in the league since Matt Eberflus took over in 2022, but that's mainly due to their road game woes. At home, they're 10-7 with three pushes ATS in that span and 3-0 this year, covering as a four-point favorite twice and then a field goal favorite. The extra three points here would undoubtedly make the Patriots a better play. I'd also lean toward Bears moneyline and under, but this is a wretched game to bet. It also might be the only way to watch it as an outsider, so who am I to judge?
Prediction
Everything tells me that the Patriots will win this game, largely partly because of the Bears' makeshift line and cold streak. That's why I'm going with Chicago this week. Should they lose this game, there's upwards of a 90 percent chance that head coach Matt Eberflus' run in the Windy City is over, and the Bears would enter an eight-game stretch playing each NFC North team twice, plus the 49ers and Seahawks, at 4-5. Should they lose this weekend? Things may snowball out of control quickly, but they've been a great home team these last two years.
Also to any Bears fans Bruce may have swindled into viewing this; The BJ Raji pick-six is the funniest play in football history by a wide margin; a drug addicted conspiricacy nutjob dogwalked your team for a clean 15 years with zero pushback, and you willingly cheered as the Bears started Mitch Trubisky. That's someones team, luckily it's not mine.
Final Score: Chicago Bears 21, New England Patriots 17
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