Four straight losses in a month have forced the Patriots into what certainly some fans had been hoping for; No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye is now the starter of this team as of Tuesday, and his first ordeal will come against one of the NFL's most formidable defenses in the Houston Texans, who by the way, have this guy named C.J. Stroud quarterbacking the other side of the ball. It's not that fans shouldn't be excited or hopeful, but if the 49ers game was the toughest on their schedule, this Texans game isn't behind by much. They have impact players at every position group, even while banged up; one of the best head coaches in the NFL with DeMeco Ryans, and have genuine hopes of playing Feburary football for the first time in franchise history. So, how in trouble are the Patriots this week?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 13
Start Time: 1:00 EST
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Kevin Harlan and Trent Green on the Call)
Patriots Uniform Info: Pat Patriot Throwbacks
Texans Statistical Rankings
Points Per Game: 20.4 (19th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 22.8 (17th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 376.6 Yards (6th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 272.4 Yards Per (1st) and 104.2 Yards Per (23rd)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 274.2 Yards (4th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 154 Yards Per (6th) and 120.2 Yards Per (17th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 42.3% (10th) and 36.4% (15th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 69.2% (4th) and 66.7% (25th)
Penalties: 47 (1st)
Penalty Yardage: 391 Yards (1st)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: Nico Collins (WR, IR)
Patriots: Jabrill Peppers (COMMISIONER'S EXTEMPT LIST)
Houston Texans
Defense
Pressure, pressure, pressure. That's what you've almost certainly heard about this Texan's defense all week, and it's for a good reason because no other team the Patriots play this year brings more of it. Their top two edge rushers, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, only have four combined sacks but 52 combined pressures, the most by a teammate duo through five weeks. This team went out of its way to blitz the daylights out of Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears back in Week 2, and I have no reason to believe DeMeco Ryans won't do the same thing on Sunday.
If there's any saving grace here, Anderson's pressure rate has been way down these last two weeks and into the single digits. Hunter is also down but still hovering around 15% in the previous two games, with 28 pass rush snaps in both. Even then, guys like linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and interior defenders Mario Edwards and Tim Settle can bring it as well. I can't say I envy the Patriot's offensive line and coach Scott Peters this week.
Standout rookie corner Kamarri Lassitier and veteran safety Jimmie Ward are trending out this week for Houston. However, they still have a trio of young and exciting defensive backs in Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock. Pitre is someone some draft friends got me onto after the fact, and when he's firing on all cylinders, he's an absolute blast to watch. Ryans has moved him into more of a nickel/slot defender role this year, and he's been an absolute force up near the line. What he did on this run play vs. Buffalo is horrifying for a guy his size.
Outside of some of the red zone woes they've faced, there's a ton to account for with this Texans defense, and with a guy like Ryan conducting things, this will almost certainly be the hardest start Drake Maye has all year.
Offense
It's hard not to overstate how gigantic a loss Nico Collins will be for Houston in the coming weeks, potentially even month/s. He's one of the most physically dominant boundary threats in the entire league and is a three-level threat working vertically and to his inside. Minnesota is the only team in the league that's naturally held him to under 100 receiving yards in a game this year. Even then, he put up 86 (Context: Collins had two grabs for 79 yards on just five routes vs. Buffalo before leaving with his hamstring injury. Otherwise, He would've broken 100 again).
To put a numerical value to things, C.J. Stroud's passer rating was just a perfect 158.3 on those two drives with Collins on the field and then 75.6 for the rest of the game (23 pass attempts). Having Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Dalton Shultz as primary pass catchers is still an elite situation. Still, Collins is the guy who stirs the drink for that offense, which could cause serious issues for the Texans' offense as we advance.
The upside, of course, is that they still have Stroud, who's been dynamite under pressure and against man coverage to this point (he has faced the third-lowest amount of man looks, but the fact remains). Now, the one parallel I saw between his dropbacks vs. the Bills (only a few), and especially so against the Vikings (long live our glorious Demon King Brian Flores), is that Stroud struggled against simulated pressure, and his line was susceptible to twists and stunts/games in pass pro. Getting right tackle Tytus Howard back would help, but his line isn't top-tier (more on that later).
Additionally, the Texans rushing offense has been one of the NFL's least efficient since they lost Joe Mixon after Week 2, but there's a really good shot he's back in the lineup this week, practicing for the first time on Thursday. Mixon is an excellent fit for a team like Houston because they love to run it outside the tackles, and that's where the ex-Bengals back is at his best. If they could do what the 49ers did a few weeks ago, force New England into base personnel looks, and expose some desirable speed matchups, the Texans could be in for a good day.
New England Patriots
Defense
Given that there's currently an opening on the 53-man roster, and he's been practicing all week, we should get Sione Takitaki on the field this week, which would be a massive boost against the pass and run. They could use the range he brings to the table to combat the outside runs the Texans will rely on. Essentially, everything the Patriots did against the 49ers in the run game, they shouldn't do here. Bobby Slowik almost certainly will do what Kyle Shanahan did in Week 4, and edge containment will be a stress point. Luckily, having Anfernee Jennings is going to be a godsend in the run game, and potentially, Kyle Dugger working from the second and third levels as well.
Nico Collins vs. Christian Gonzalez would've been one of the best corner vs. receiver matchups all year long, and to be honest, I think Collins' physicality would cause some issues out in space. It's not that Gonzalez would lose every rep, but Collins is a three-level threat with many ways to beat you. I wouldn't be stunned if he shadows the closest thing they have to Collins' skillset/size in Xavier Hutchinson, but I wouldn't call that a lock, given you'd still have Diggs to worry about. Keep an eye on whether Mayo and Covington want to throw Marco Wilson or Isaiah Bolden on him. The latter's seven lone defensive snaps all came against the 49ers on their final drive, but he'd match up better on someone like Hutchinson than Wilson. I'm also excited to see Tank Dell go up against the Joneses. He has yet to be much of a factor through the first month of the year, but most football fans know what he's capable of after 2023.
Onto the Patriots rush now, which was certainly not great, but Miami has been one of the best pass-blocking units in the league, especially on the interior of their OLine, which nearly blanked Keion White in his worst start of the year. Now, believe it or not, Despite having Laremy Tunsil at left tackle, The Texans' offensive line has been pretty bad in the pass-blocking department five weeks in (third in pressures allowed, eighth in pressure rate allowed, and 10th in sacks allowed) so there shouldn't be any excuses for them this week. I don't expect this to happen, mainly because I don't know if they have the personnel to pull it off, but Brian Flores gave Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud fits with the Amoeba looks the Patriots ran from about 2018-2020; if they break that out, I think they could manufacture some pressure and sack opportunities. I don't believe they've done it all year, so don't hold your breath on it, but I'd definitely like to see DeMarcus Covington take some inspiration from what the Vikings are doing.
Offense (Really just Drake Maye this week)
Well, we've made it. Drake Maye is just a matter of hours away from being baptized by fire against Will Anderson and Friends, but at the bare minimum, it'll be in style with the Pat Patriot reds. However, I'd be remiss if I didn't say anything about Jacoby Brissett, who came to New England all but knowing this would happen sooner or later and took a ton of physical punishment with protection that not many QBs would've had success with. Definitely wasn't great these last two weeks, but you have to respect his toughness and how he's carried himself this year. That extended to yesterday when he was asked about the ordeal and dropped a nice quote about Drake Maye's reaction to getting the starting gig.
Now, how would I define Sunday being a success for Maye? Firstly, getting the ball out on time and making good decisions. One note that we got was that Maye ended up a perfect 6-6 in blitz drills on Wednesday, but it's one thing to do that out behind the stadium and another inside when it's guys like Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter bearing down on you. Alex Van Pelt setting up an initial one or two-drive script to get Maye in a rhythm should be expected, but things will likely be hectic up front. Not that he isn't used to that by now from either his UNC days or even now, but decisiveness this week of all weeks is non-negotiable.
The second thing I want to see is Maye not reverting to some bad mechanical habits that he had at UNC, which is less of a concern but something worth keeping tabs on. I was in the camp that Maye's footwork lacked polish during his final two years in college. Still, to his credit, Maye's footwork looked leaps and bounds better during the summer, so credit to the bulk of the offensive staff drilling that into him. Luckily, we saw a lot of positives on both of those fronts against Washington.
And lastly, I would say one way or another not to judge him off this one game, good, bad, or indifferent. I think the fact that his four top receivers will be Kayshon Boutte, Pop Douglas, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Kendrick Bourne is really good, and this should be a run-heavy game plan with or without 'Mondre (Texans allow nearly five yards a carry), but if he makes mistakes, so be it. This is a process, and his best football is a way out. Hopefully, fans aren't too impatient.
Betting Info
Points Spread: HOU -6.5 (-112) | NE +6.5 (-108)
Moneyline: HOU (-290) | NE (+235)
Over/Under: O 38 (-110) | U 38 (-110)
Lines via DraftKings as of Thursday, October 10
I couldn't believe this when I saw it, but both of these teams are 1-3-1 ATS, with the under hitting in a combined 7-of-10 matchups between them. With that in mind, I like the Texans both ways and the under here. It's hard to say if the Texans will be a reliable team with totals without Nico Collins until we see them play games.
Prediction
I view this game very similarly to the 49ers game. Can the Patriots at least keep a team with Super Bowl aspirations honest for anywhere from 75% to 100% of the game? If so, I'd call that a success for where they are currently. They're getting healthier, which is good, but just like San Francisco was hurt in Week 4, Houston is still a WAGON, even with key guys out of the lineup. I can't say I see the Patriots winning before they head to London.
Final Score: Houston Texans 23, New England Patriots 10
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