It feels like I've been saying this for weeks, but it's truly now or never for the Dolphins. They sit at 2-6 after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Cardinals and Bills. A loss here, and they can kiss their already slim playoff chances goodbye.
The Rams have dealt with some significant injuries, especially to the receivers and offensive line. They started 1-4 but are 3-0 since their bye in Week 6. They're in the heart of the playoff race, with their division being as tight as it is. They still have to play each of their divisional opponents one more time, but two of the three are at home. A win against a reeling Dolphins team is just what they need before their end-of-season gauntlet.
The Dolphins only have one primetime win in the past two seasons, and it came against the Tim Boyle-led Jets last season. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford has been excellent on primetime since joining the Rams. He's thrown 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions in his six primetime wins since being traded. Will Monday night provide more of the same? Or will Week 10 spring another surprise?
Game Info
Date: Monday, November 11th
Start Time: 8:15 PM EDT
Location: Inglewood, California
Stadium: SoFi Stadium
TV Info: ESPN (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: White Jersey, Blue Pants
Los Angeles Rams 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 21.3 (21st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 24.3 (22nd)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 328.9 (18th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 231.8 Yards Per Game (9th) and 97.1 Yards Per Game (26th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 360.1 (23rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 225.0 Yards Per Game (23rd) and 135.1 Yards Per Game (24th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 35.79% (23rd) and 35.96% (14th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 51.72% (25th) and 50% (9th)
Penalties: 44 (28th)
Penalty Yardage: 360 Yards (26th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Monday
Dolphins: RT Austin Jackson, WR Tyreek Hill (Questionable)
Rams: NT Neville Gallimore, RT Rob Havenstein
Los Angeles Rams
Defense
Statistically, the Rams defense hasn't been great. They've held only one opponent to under 20 points but, interestingly, have only allowed over 30 once. They've struggled to contain opposing teams' top receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went for 180 yards and two touchdowns against them last week, and Justin Jefferson had eight catches for 115 yards facing them in Week 8.
The most exciting part of this defense is their pass rush. First-round pick Jared Verse is the odds-on favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year, and it's not hard to see why. He leads the team in tackles for loss and all rookies in quarterback pressures. He really stands out when watching the tape. Second-year players Byron Young and Kobie Turner also have four sacks each, making the Rams one of the best young pass rushes in the league.
The Rams must focus on stopping De'Von Achane, the Dolphins' leading rusher and their leader in receptions. Tyreek Hill is questionable for this game, and if he doesn't play, Achane will likely see even more snaps lined up out wide. If Hill does play, the Rams' secondary will have to zero in on him.
Offense
The Rams offense starts with one man. Matthew Stafford is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the league to watch and should be for any football lover. He's one of the most naturally gifted throwers of the football in the NFL. It's not just his arm strength; it's the sidearm throws, improvisation, and accuracy. He was stuck in a terrible situation in Detroit and won a Super Bowl immediately after being traded. His career would be looked at much more favorably had he left Detroit sooner.
Of course, the Rams also have some top targets for Stafford to throw to. Cooper Kupp has been one of the best receivers in the league when healthy, and Puka Nacua had a historic rookie season last year. Both of them have been out injured for most of the season, but they're back and ready to wreak havoc now. They've had one 100+ yard game each in the past two weeks.
In the running game, Kyren Williams is one the few proper workhorse backs left in the league. He and Joe Mixon are the only two backs to average over 20 carries a game, and Williams plays far more snaps. Last week, he played 99(!)% of snaps; that just isn't normal in today's NFL for running backs. The Rams will feed him the ball plenty.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins' defense held its own in the first half against Buffalo last week but could not hold up in the second half. They will need to be on it from start to finish against this Rams team, which is loaded with all the aforementioned weapons on offense.
One area where the Dolphins' defense has struggled massively is takeaways. They've only managed six takeaways all season, tied for third worst in the league. It won't help that the Rams have only nine giveaways, tied for the seventh-fewest. Turnovers are massive momentum swingers in football; the Dolphins have witnessed that for themselves in the past two weeks, and it's time for the defense to cause some of their own.
The Dolphins will have to stop the run if they want any chance of winning this game. It's crucial to limit the damage Williams can do. I expect them to focus on that and to let the pass defense do its thing. Jevon Holland is listed as questionable, but the Dolphins will hope that he can suit up to lead the defense.
Offense
The offense has looked MUCH better with Tua back. The Dolphins have scored 27 points and had over 370 yards of total offense in back-to-back games, but it hasn't been enough to win. Tua completed 25/28 passes against Buffalo, albeit taking fewer deep shots down the field.
As mentioned earlier, Tyreek Hill has a wrist injury and may not play. Hill has had a down season by all accounts, but he's still the best receiver on the team and an elite playmaker. I suspect he will play; he has a history of not practicing on Friday and still playing. Plus, it's too vital of a game to miss if there's even a chance to play. He won't be at 100%, so we might see more of Malik Washington and Odell Beckham Jr.
The Dolphins' offensive line will already have their hands full with the Rams' pass rush, and to make matters worse, right tackle Austin Jackson is out. Tua will have to get the ball out of his hands quickly, while Achane and Mostert must do their part in the running game. The Dolphins need to be fearless and take the game right to the Rams, starting with the offense.
Betting Info
Points Spread: LAR -2.5 (-110) | MIA +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: LAR (-142) | MIA (+120)
Over/Under: O 48.5 (-110) | U 48.5 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Sunday, November 10th
The Rams are 3-5 ATS this season but are 2-1 in their last three. The Dolphins struggle as away underdogs, going 1-2 ATS this season and 1-4 last season. As much as I want to pick the Dolphins, I'm going with the Rams -2.5.
Prediction
These are two high-powered offenses, so there could be a lot of points. The Dolphins need this win badly, but there are so many factors against them—Hill's uncertainty, their general struggles in primetime, being the away team, etc. I'm also quite bullish on this Rams team in general, and I think they get the win.
Final Score: Rams 28, Dolphins 20
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