The Dolphins' bye week came at an excellent time. Even though they were coming off a win against the Patriots, the team struggled mightily before that, and the bye week also gave Tua time to recover.
This matchup with the Colts pits two unpredictable teams against each other. Both teams have injury woes and inconsistencies, making this an interesting game.
On paper, this is the Colts' easiest game until Week 13. They have an absolutely brutal run that includes the Texans, Vikings, Bills, Jets, and Lions, so securing a victory here is vital to their season's hopes. It'll help that they're at home, where they are 2-1 this season, with the loss being a narrow two-point defeat to the Texans.
The win against the Pats saved the Dolphins' chances of doing anything of note this season, and a win here would put them in a decent spot, with Tua potentially returning in Week 8. The AFC is quite top-heavy, so there will be a healthy mix of teams for the wild card spots in the race. Can the Dolphins put themselves in the hunt?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 20th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
Indianapolis Colts 2024 Stats
Points Per Game: 23.2 (16th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 23.2 (18th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 336.8 (13th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 219.2 Yards Per Game (15th) and 117.7 Yards Per Game (17th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 389.5 (30th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 234.3 Yards Per Game (26th) and 155.2 Yards Per Game (31st)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 42.67% (8th) and 45.35% (28th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 57.14% (16th) and 68.42% (27th)
Penalties: 30 (31st)
Penalty Yardage: 230 Yards (31st)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: S Jevon Holland (Doubtful)
Colts: RB Jonathan Taylor, CB Chris Lammons
Indianapolis Colts
Defense
The Colts defense has struggled this season. They rank near the bottom in most key metrics, including second-last in rush yards allowed. The Dolphins will undoubtedly look to exploit that, with Snoop Huntley still being in at quarterback and the backfield fully healthy.
The biggest name on the Colts defense is linebacker Zaire Franklin. Franklin was second in the NFL in tackles last season with 179 and is tied for third this season with teammates EJ. Speed and Nick Cross. Franklin's tape is seriously impressive; he reads the game exceptionally well and makes high-IQ plays. That fact that the Colts have given up the second-most rushing yards with him and Speed in their linebacking corps is a testament to how poor the defensive line has been at stopping the run at the line of scrimmage.
In the secondary, second-year corner Jaylon Jones has played 100% of snaps and leads the team with two interceptions. Trevor Lawrence torched the defense for 371 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5, but they bounced back last week. Will Levis was held to only 95 yards as the Colts beat the Titans. They'll want to ride that momentum against Huntley, who's hardly known for his accuracy. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane are a whole different ballgame from the Titans' receivers, though, so this is an area to keep an eye on.
Offense
The Colts' offense changes a lot depending on their health. For the past two and a half weeks, Joe Flacco has taken the reins as quarterback with Anthony Richardson out. Star running back Jonathan Taylor has also been sidelined, and this will be his third consecutive game out. With Flacco in and Taylor out, the offense has been extremely pass-happy. Flacco threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns vs the Jags, and while he only threw for 189 last week, they still had more success passing than running.
Richardson has fully recovered from an oblique injury and is set to play on Sunday. The thing about Richardson is that he's like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. One moment, he's making an incredible throw on the run with great velocity, and the next, he's throwing a head-scratching interception. He's a tremendous athlete, but he needs time to develop. Flacco would give them a better chance to win in the short term, but he's obviously on his last legs.
The Colts' top three receivers, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce, are all listed as questionable, with Pittman looking like the most likely of the three to miss the game. They each provide different skillsets to the offense, with Pittman working in the short game racking up receptions, Pierce being the deep ball threat, and Downs being a mix. Richardson will have to make the most of Jevon Holland being out and open up the passing game.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins defense had a good day against the Pats. After Rhamondre Stevenson broke a few tackles for a 33-yard touchdown in the first quarter, they only gave up three points for the rest of the game. The Colts offense has more playmakers than the Pats do, but Taylor being out will be a huge relief. Trey Sermon and Charles Goodson will deputize for him and provide nowhere near the same threat.
The Dolphins' game plan will be to stop Richardson from making big plays. The Dolphins have given up the third-fewest passing yards per game this season, so Richardson playing instead of Flacco gives the Dolphins an advantage. The Dolphins struggle more against the slot due to Kader Kohou and David Long Jr., but Jalen Ramsey and Kendall Fuller have been solid on the outside.
Offense
After a painful display against the Titans, Snoop Huntley and the offense looked much better against the Pats. Even though they only scored 15 points, they more than doubled the number of yards they had in the Titans game. Huntley looked far more comfortable in the offense and was able to move the ball down the field.
One thing that helped Huntley and the offense was finally getting the tight ends involved. Jonnu Smith had five receptions for 62 yards and caught some nice passes in the middle of the field. Before this game, Smith and Durman Smythe saw very few targets, making the passing game a bit one-dimensional. Tyreek Hill had his best game since Tua's injury, and the Colts are a phenomenal matchup for him to get in the endzone finally.
De'Von Achane suffered a concussion early in the game against the Pats, but the bye week gave him enough time to clear protocol, and he'll play. Jaylen Wright played well in his absence, so I'll expect him to still be involved, even with Raheem Mostert back. The Dolphins rushed for 193 yards against the Pats, and the Colts' failure to stop the run at the line of scrimmage will only entice them to run more. I think the Dolphins will get multiple touchdowns on the board this week.
Betting Info
Points Spread: IND +3 (-110) | MIA +3 (-110)
Moneyline: IND (-158) | MIA(+134)
Over/Under: O 43.5 (-110) | U 43.5 (-110)
Lines via Fanduel as of Friday, October 18th
This is a tough one to call. As I mentioned earlier, the Colts (and Richardson) can be highly unpredictable. I wouldn't take it myself, but if I were forced to choose, I would lean with the Dolphins +3 due to Taylor's absence.
Prediction
The Colts have a leaky defense, but it is still Tyler Huntley. This is a must-win for the Colts considering their schedule coming up. They have a knack for pulling out close games at home, and I think they'll squeak out another one.
Final Score: Colts 24, Dolphins 22
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