The Dolphins will face the Patriots on Sunday with their backs already against the wall. After two and a half games of awful football, the Phins need to get something going; any momentum at all would help. Tua will likely come back in Week 8, but you'd have to wonder at what point they would consider shutting him down for the season. If the Dolphins start 1-7 or even 2-6, would it be worth risking his long-term health for what is likely a wasted season?
The Pats, as expected before the season, have been one of the worst teams in the NFL, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been better than the stats suggest, but it's only a matter of time before we see Drake Maye take over at quarterback. That being said, they beat the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 1 and kept things close with an impressive Seahawks team. Can they get their first divisional win, or will the Dolphins finally get back on track?
Game Info
Date: Sunday, October 6th
Start Time: 1:00 PM EDT
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Info: FOX (Chris Myers, Mark Sanchez on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: All White
2024 New England Patriots Stats
Points Per Game: 13.0 (31st)
Points Allowed Per Game: 21.8 (15th)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 238.8 (32nd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 112.3 Yards Per Game (32nd) and 126.5 Yards Per Game (12th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 353.3 (23rd)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 254 Yards Per Game (27th) and 99.3 Yards Per Game (9th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 32.76% (24th) and 51.85% (31st)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 36.36% (30th) and 53.85% (16th)
Penalties: 16 (32nd)
Penalty Yardage: 172 Yards (27th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Sunday
Dolphins: EDGE Jaelan Phillips (IR), S Jordan Poyer
Patriots: LB Sione Takitaki (Doubtful), S Jabrill Peppers
New England Patriots
Defense
The strongest part of this Pats team is certainly its defense. They have a vast collection of talent that will worry Mike McDaniel. The numbers this season don't accurately depict how good they are, as they've played some high-powered offenses, yet they haven't given up more than 24 points in a game this season.
The standout in the Pats' secondary is star corner Christian Gonzalez. The second-year man has wasted no time establishing himself as one of the best corners in the NFL, and he'll draw the Tyreek Hill assignment this week. Gonzalez has already locked up Ja'Marr Chase, DK Metcalf (outside of one blown assingment that was more so on Kyle Dugger), Garrett Wilson, and Brandon Aiyuk this season and will look to give Hill the same treatment. The quarterback of the secondary and do-it-all safety Jabrill Peppers has been ruled out for this game, which will be a relief for McDaniel. Veterans Kyle Dugger and Jonathan Jones are also listed as questionable, so this secondary is quite banged up.
On the defensive line for the Pats, the Keion White breakout has arrived. White had 2.5 sacks in Week 1 and has been a menace for opposing offensive lines to deal with all season. He'll cause headaches for a Dolphins offensive line that has struggled all season. The run defense has also been excellent; one of their strong points coming into the season. The game plan will be to pressure Huntley, who struggled with Tennessee's pass rush, and for the corners to cover the outside, as the Dolphins don't do much damage between the numbers.
Offense
This Patriots offense has been dull, to say the least. They rank dead last in passing yards per game, and that's saying something, considering they've been primarily in negative game scripts. Could this be the game we see Drake Maye for more than a quarter? This will be one of the best chances the Pats have to throw him into the fire against a reeling Dolphins team with injuries everywhere. He might not be fully ready yet, but looking at the Pats' schedule now is as good a time as ever.
The identity of the Pats' offense is clear: Run. The. Ball. They rank 11th in rushing attempts per game and 12th in rushing yards per game, high marks for a team that's often on the back foot. Rhamondre Stevenson seemingly has a fumble problem, having fumbled in every game this season, and Jerod Mayo has informed him that he'll start on the bench this game. It will be an essential wake-up call for Stevenson, even if it's just for this week. Antonio Gibson has historically been more of a pass-catching back than a runner but iaverages5.3 yards per carry this season.
The Patriots use their wide receivers less than any other team in the NFL. In the game against Seattle, they only completed three passes to their wideouts, with the running backs and Hunter Henry seeing most of the volume. I expect that to change with Maye, as they used their second-round pick on Ja'Lynn Polk out of Washington (who is a fantasy sleeper, by the way). But expect the Pats to stick with their ground-and-pound style for this game.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
Disaster struck again for the Dolphins' defense as Jaelan Phillips suffered a season-ending knee injury. Luckily for the Dolphins, the defensive line is one of the few spots they have actual depth in, but Phillips's absence for the rest of the season is brutal. Jordan Poyer is also out for this game, so Marcus Maye will start at safety. The defense looked....okay against the Titans, but it didn't matter when the offense could barely get past midfield.
Jalen Ramsey isn't 100%, but he'll likely be ready to go. Kendall Fuller is back this week after missing the last game due to a concussion. As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots don't throw to the outside much, so it'll be up to Jordyn Brooks and David Long Jr (hahaha) to stop Hunter Henry across the middle of the field. The approach will change if Maye comes in, but the secondary shouldn't be too busy this game.
The Pats' offensive line has been awful, being ranked last by Pro Football Focus. It has only been made worse by the fact that starting Center David Matthews is slated to miss the rest of the season. If that's not an invitation for Zach Sieler, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Co to get after Brissett, I don't know what is.
Offense
The Dolphins have the league's worst offense thus far. Considering the talent on this roster, 11.3 points per game is disgraceful. The story is that Tyler Huntley is starting again, and hopefully, it will go better than his first. The Tennessee game was such a dire watch; the sloppy plays and calls, the lack of effort, and you could see how frustrated the crowd was.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have pretty much been zeros the past two weeks, but something tells me that this is the week that at least one of them shows up. The playcalling hasn't helped them, but they have to be better. Tyreek Hill, especially, has had a drop issue this season. The thing about Hill is that all it takes is one big play, which he can pull off at any time, to turn things around completely. Huntley should feel more comfortable throwing after getting the first-game jitters out of the way.
Raheem Mostert will return for this game after missing longer than expected with a chest injury. Mostert will help take some of the load off of De'Von Achane, who has lined up as a receiver quite a bit this season, on top of taking the lion's share of backfield carries. Achane will still see his usual heavy workload and have his work cut out for him against a tough Pats defense.
Betting Info
Points Spread: NE +1.5 (-120) | MIA -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: NE (-104) | MIA (-112)
Over/Under: O 35.5 (-115) | U 35.5 (-105)
Lines via Fanduel as of Saturday, October 5th
This line opened at NE -1.5 and has moved because...? I'm not really sure why. The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL to be 0-4 ATS this season, which is one of the reasons I'm taking the Pats. That said, it is not very Vegas-like to keep missing this badly on spreads. The Titans game inexplicably hit the over after being 9-3 at halftime, but that won't happen again. Pats +1.5 and under for me.
Prediction
This will certainly be a football game, but it will not be a very good one. I expect another ugly, field goal-heavy game, par for the course for the two worst offenses in the league. I will have a hard time picking the Dolphins to win any game after last week until they prove me wrong and win one, so I'm picking the Pats.
Final Score: New England Patriots 16, Miami Dolphins 10
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