Another page will be added to the rivalry as the Dolphins take on the Bills on Thursday Night Football to begin Week 2. It'll be the first AFC East divisional matchup of the season, and both teams will be looking to send a message not only to the rest of the division but also to the entire AFC.
Including the playoffs, Josh Allen is 11-2 in his career against the Dolphins and has thrown for two or more touchdowns in every game. Tua, conversely, is 1-6 against the Bills and has typically struggled in those losses. The Bills have felt like the Dolphins' big brother these past few seasons, but the Bills have lost crucial pieces on offense, and this game is in Miami, which will play in the Dolphins' favor.
Both teams are coming off 14-point comebacks, the first time in NFL history that two teams are meeting in Week 2 after such comebacks. Divisional games this early into the season are always tricky because the teams theoretically know each other extremely well but haven't had time to study the new personnel and adjustments made for the current season. It'll be an opportunity for one of these teams to establish an early lead in the division and improve on their faulty week one performance.
Game Info
Date: Thursday, September 12
Start Time: 8:15 PM EDT
Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
TV Info: Amazon Prime (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit on the call)
Dolphins uniform info: Throwback Aqua Jersey, White Pants
Buffalo Bills Stats (From 2023)
Points Per Game: 26.6(6th)
Points Allowed Per Game: 18.7 (3rd)
Offensive Yards Per Game: 373.8(5th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Per Game: 238.4 Yards Per Game (10th) and 135.4 Yards Per Game (5th)
Defensive Yards Allowed Per Game: 310.9 (8th)
Passing/Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game: 198.7 Yards Per Game (7th) and 112.2 Yards Per Game (15th)
Third Down Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 49.39% (1st) and 38.53% (T-18th)
Red Zone Offensive/Defensive Conversion Rate: 63.89 (4th) and 55.36% (15th)
Penalties: 112 (T-8th)
Penalty Yardage: 935 Yards (13th)
Players Already Ruled Out Before Thursday
Dolphins: WR Malik Washington, RB Raheem Mostert, RB De'Von Achane (GTD)
Bills: CB Taron Johnson, DE Dawuane Smoot
Buffalo Bills
Defense
The Bills gave up 28 points to the Cardinals last Sunday, who had one of the worst offenses in the league last season. Granted, Kyler Murray is fully healthy this season, and they added number four overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. to the fray. Even so, the Bills were able to limit Harrison Jr. to only one reception for four yards. Where they struggled was keeping Murray in the pocket, as he rushed for 57 yards on five attempts, primarily through scrambles.
The good news for Buffalo is that Tua is not a scrambler; in fact, he's one of the more immobile quarterbacks in the league. That will undoubtedly change Buffalo's game plan for defending this Miami offense. Buffalo likes to run a lot of deep coverage sets with two safeties to prevent the deep ball. This has proven successful against Miami, as Tua has averaged just 207.7 passing yards per game in his career against the Bills.
Individually, Greg Rousseau was the standout against Arizona with three sacks, and Sean McDermott will be looking to use him to send pressure again. Terrel Bernard was another outstanding performer, with eleven tackles in the heart of the Bills' linebacking core. The Bills will hope that De'Von Achane isn't ready to play, as that will give them one less receiver out of the backfield and a big-play threat to worry about.
Offense
As solid as the Bills' defense is, it's their that offense grabs the headlines. Josh Allen may be error-prone (his 22 turnovers were second only to Sam Howell last season), but few would argue that he's outside the top five QBs in the NFL. The Bills have now gone 42 consecutive regular season games without losing by more than six points, all with Allen at QB. He may cost the Bills some games with his turnovers, but he also keeps them in nearly every game he plays.
The offense is now without Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, Allen's top two targets for the past few seasons, so others have had to step up. On paper, rookie Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are the top two receiver targets, but Josh Allen spread the ball around well against Arizona. No player had more than five targets, albeit only on 23 pass attempts. Dalton Kincaid is a player who came alive at the end of last season and is one who I expect to have a prominent role in this offense going forward.
In the running game, James Cook is the undisputed lead back. He had 19 carries and a 61% snap share against Arizona. He's also a critical receiver coming out of the backfield. The Bills like to use Allen's bigger frame for runs inside the five-yard line, as evidenced by his two rushing touchdowns last Sunday and fifteen rushing touchdowns last season.
Miami Dolphins
Defense
The Dolphins' defense got off to a slow start but gradually picked it up against Jacksonville. Holding a Jacksonville team with Trevor Lawrence and Co. to a scoreless half is no easy feat, especially with the game on the line. Jaelan Phillips looks healthy and ready to wreak havoc on Buffalo's offensive line. David Long Jr. also had a good game and was the Phins' highest-rated defender on Pro Football Focus, with a grade of 76.6.
As good as the defense was in the second half against Jacksonville, they'll have to take it to another level in this matchup. Josh Allen is as dangerous as they come as a dual-threat QB, and he knows how to put points up on the board. In his career against the Dolphins, Allen has thrown 33 touchdowns to only seven interceptions, including four consecutive games of over 300 passing yards.
The defense's goal should be to clog up the line of scrimmage (LOS) to prevent the Bills from getting their running game going. Then, try to contain Allen's scrambling and force him into making tough decisions, which he has historically struggled with. Both things are easier said than done, but who knows with this Buffalo offense still trying to settle in with their new additions.
Offense
The basic game plan for the Dolphins offense every week should be simple: get Tyreek Hill the ball as much as possible. Buffalo will try to take away the deep ball, and Mike McDaniel will know this, so Hill will likely be heavily involved in the screen game. That won't be a problem for Hill, who's a threat no matter where he gets the ball on the field.
The backfield is where there are questions. Raheem Mostert is already confirmed to be out, and De'Von Achane, much to my fantasy team's dismay, is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. Jeff Wilson Jr. will be the lead back if Achane can't play, with Jaylen Wright supporting him. Neither of the two is the receiving threat that Achane is, especially after he had seven receptions from seven targets last week.
It's time for Tua to be a leader and play well in a primetime game, especially with his top two running backs likely out. If Achane does not play, almost all of the Bills' defense will be on Hill, which could set up Jaylen Waddle to have a monster day. Tua will have to overcome a stubborn Bills pass rush and get the ball out of his hands quickly. He's struggled in big games (as have the Dolphins in general), but a win against the Bills on primetime would be an excellent way to silence his critics.
Betting Info
Points Spread: BUF +2.5 (-105) | MIA -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: BUF (+120) | MIA (-144)
Over/Under: O 48.5 (-115) | U 48.5 (-105)
Lines via FanDuel as of Thursday, September 12
I'm going to pick Buffalo +2.5 here reluctantly. The Dolphins have to prove they can perform not only against Buffalo but also on primetime, which they've not played well in recently, and I'd still have to give up two points. Much like last week, buying half a point to take it to +3 would be wise, as I think this will be a close game. For player props, Josh Allen O 1.5 Passing TDs is -105, and as I mentioned before, he's managed that in his last thirteen against the Dolphins.
Prediction
Most people will expect a shootout, but I don't see it playing out that way. Both defenses will be up for it, and this Buffalo offense has lost some weapons from last season. The Dolphins' backfield also isn't healthy, with Mostert out and Achane likely not being at 100%, if he plays at all.
I think it'll be a close game, but I can't trust the Dolphins yet. These early season matchups are always the hardest to call, but my gut tells me Buffalo pulls it out.
Final Score: Bills 24, Dolphins 22
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